PITCHER MATCHUP

Connelly Early vs Seattle Mariners

How the Seattle Mariners's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Connelly Early's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Connelly Early's arsenal

Throws LHPvs LHH xwOBA .256vs RHH xwOBA .338Seasons 2026–2025
Four-Seam Fastball 34%Changeup 19%Sinker 19%Curveball 14%Slider 8%Sweeper 6%

How the Seattle Mariners's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Seattle Mariners's top-9-by-AB hitters against Connelly Early, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .327
  1. 1 JR Julio Rodríguez RHB .336
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Julio Rodríguez
    • Four-Seam Fastball (34% usage) projects to .343 xwOBA over 419 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (19% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 170 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .342 xwOBA over 356 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (14% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 77 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (8% usage) projects to .372 xwOBA over 270 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (6% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 146 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 CY Cole Young LHB .309
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Cole Young
    • Four-Seam Fastball (34% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 200 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (19% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 65 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .345 xwOBA over 94 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (14% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 21 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (8% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 70 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (6% usage) projects to .272 xwOBA over 29 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  3. 3 JN Josh Naylor LHB .324
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Josh Naylor
    • Four-Seam Fastball (34% usage) projects to .351 xwOBA over 445 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (19% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 213 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 254 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (14% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 73 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (8% usage) projects to .285 xwOBA over 210 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (6% usage) projects to .327 xwOBA over 98 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 JC J.P. Crawford LHB .325
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. J.P. Crawford
    • Four-Seam Fastball (34% usage) projects to .339 xwOBA over 467 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (19% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 112 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 238 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (14% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 46 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (8% usage) projects to .325 xwOBA over 183 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (6% usage) projects to .265 xwOBA over 83 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  5. 5 LR Luke Raley LHB .335
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Luke Raley
    • Four-Seam Fastball (34% usage) projects to .366 xwOBA over 242 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (19% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 129 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .347 xwOBA over 107 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (14% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 43 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (8% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 139 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (6% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 58 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 CR Cal Raleigh SH .342
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Cal Raleigh
    • Four-Seam Fastball (34% usage) projects to .345 xwOBA over 528 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (19% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 275 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .395 xwOBA over 146 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (14% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 101 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (8% usage) projects to .363 xwOBA over 165 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (6% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 54 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 DC Dominic Canzone LHB .352
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Dominic Canzone
    • Four-Seam Fastball (34% usage) projects to .379 xwOBA over 179 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (19% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 102 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .369 xwOBA over 86 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (14% usage) projects to .353 xwOBA over 44 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (8% usage) projects to .344 xwOBA over 85 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (6% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 35 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 MG Mitch Garver RHB .299
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Mitch Garver
    • Four-Seam Fastball (34% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 262 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (19% usage) projects to .284 xwOBA over 90 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 149 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (14% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 29 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (8% usage) projects to .272 xwOBA over 151 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sweeper (6% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 68 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 RR Rob Refsnyder RHB .320
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Rob Refsnyder
    • Four-Seam Fastball (34% usage) projects to .339 xwOBA over 217 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (19% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 60 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 112 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (14% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 32 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (8% usage) projects to .269 xwOBA over 72 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sweeper (6% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 44 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

Next scheduled meeting: 2026-06-20 game page →