PITCHER MATCHUP

Connelly Early vs Seattle Mariners

How the Seattle Mariners's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Connelly Early's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Connelly Early's arsenal

Throws LHPvs LHH xwOBA .239vs RHH xwOBA .337Seasons 2026–2025
Four-Seam Fastball 34%Sinker 19%Changeup 18%Curveball 12%Slider 9%Sweeper 7%

How the Seattle Mariners's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Seattle Mariners's top-9-by-AB hitters against Connelly Early, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .327
  1. 1 JR Julio Rodríguez RHB .338
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Julio Rodríguez
    • Four-Seam Fastball (34% usage) projects to .340 xwOBA over 490 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .351 xwOBA over 413 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (18% usage) projects to .341 xwOBA over 193 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (12% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 94 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .355 xwOBA over 309 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (7% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 169 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 JN Josh Naylor LHB .320
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Josh Naylor
    • Four-Seam Fastball (34% usage) projects to .357 xwOBA over 531 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 313 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (18% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 245 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (12% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 88 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .282 xwOBA over 243 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (7% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 116 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 CY Cole Young LHB .309
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Cole Young
    • Four-Seam Fastball (34% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 272 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 145 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (18% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 99 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (12% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 35 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 100 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (7% usage) projects to .256 xwOBA over 53 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  4. 4 RA Randy Arozarena RHB .333
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Randy Arozarena
    • Four-Seam Fastball (34% usage) projects to .351 xwOBA over 577 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .356 xwOBA over 367 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (18% usage) projects to .277 xwOBA over 205 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (12% usage) projects to .340 xwOBA over 94 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 288 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (7% usage) projects to .350 xwOBA over 184 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  5. 5 TW Taylor Ward RHB .330
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Taylor Ward
    • Four-Seam Fastball (34% usage) projects to .378 xwOBA over 556 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .337 xwOBA over 389 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (18% usage) projects to .285 xwOBA over 149 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (12% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 89 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 303 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (7% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 166 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 DC Dominic Canzone LHB .346
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Dominic Canzone
    • Four-Seam Fastball (34% usage) projects to .393 xwOBA over 253 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .351 xwOBA over 132 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (18% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 139 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (12% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 60 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .338 xwOBA over 133 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (7% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 48 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 CR Cal Raleigh SH .341
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Cal Raleigh
    • Four-Seam Fastball (34% usage) projects to .343 xwOBA over 632 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .396 xwOBA over 171 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (18% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 310 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (12% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 123 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .345 xwOBA over 195 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (7% usage) projects to .326 xwOBA over 68 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 JC J.P. Crawford LHB .323
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. J.P. Crawford
    • Four-Seam Fastball (34% usage) projects to .346 xwOBA over 535 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 286 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (18% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 125 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (12% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 53 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 208 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (7% usage) projects to .273 xwOBA over 94 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  9. 9 WW Weston Wilson RHB .304
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Weston Wilson
    • Four-Seam Fastball (34% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 121 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 57 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (18% usage) projects to .279 xwOBA over 52 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (12% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 23 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .286 xwOBA over 52 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (7% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 22 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.