PITCHER MATCHUP

Connelly Early vs Seattle Mariners

How the Seattle Mariners's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Connelly Early's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Connelly Early's arsenal

Throws LHPvs LHH xwOBA .239vs RHH xwOBA .337Seasons 2026–2025
Four-Seam Fastball 34%Sinker 19%Changeup 18%Curveball 12%Slider 9%Sweeper 7%

How the Seattle Mariners's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Seattle Mariners's top-9-by-AB hitters against Connelly Early, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .323
  1. 1 JN Josh Naylor LHB .323
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Josh Naylor
    • Four-Seam Fastball (34% usage) projects to .359 xwOBA over 484 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 284 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (18% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 227 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (12% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 86 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 223 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (7% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 108 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 CY Cole Young LHB .311
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Cole Young
    • Four-Seam Fastball (34% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 243 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .335 xwOBA over 116 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (18% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 77 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (12% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 31 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 83 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (7% usage) projects to .273 xwOBA over 41 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  3. 3 JR Julio Rodríguez RHB .337
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Julio Rodríguez
    • Four-Seam Fastball (34% usage) projects to .342 xwOBA over 440 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .346 xwOBA over 378 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (18% usage) projects to .326 xwOBA over 178 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (12% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 83 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .368 xwOBA over 290 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (7% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 157 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 RA Randy Arozarena RHB .327
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Randy Arozarena
    • Four-Seam Fastball (34% usage) projects to .351 xwOBA over 530 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .340 xwOBA over 335 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (18% usage) projects to .273 xwOBA over 185 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (12% usage) projects to .327 xwOBA over 80 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 267 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (7% usage) projects to .348 xwOBA over 169 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  5. 5 CR Cal Raleigh SH .340
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Cal Raleigh
    • Four-Seam Fastball (34% usage) projects to .336 xwOBA over 583 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .397 xwOBA over 155 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (18% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 288 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (12% usage) projects to .283 xwOBA over 113 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .361 xwOBA over 180 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (7% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 63 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 DC Dominic Canzone LHB .354
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Dominic Canzone
    • Four-Seam Fastball (34% usage) projects to .400 xwOBA over 211 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .356 xwOBA over 106 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (18% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 119 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (12% usage) projects to .335 xwOBA over 53 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .349 xwOBA over 99 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (7% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 41 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 CE Colt Emerson LHB .297
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Colt Emerson
    • Four-Seam Fastball (34% usage) projects to .286 xwOBA over 53 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 33 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (18% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 20 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (12% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 13 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 22 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (7% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 16 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 MG Mitch Garver RHB .303
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Mitch Garver
    • Four-Seam Fastball (34% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 276 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .333 xwOBA over 155 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (18% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 93 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (12% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 30 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .279 xwOBA over 157 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sweeper (7% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 74 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 RR Rob Refsnyder RHB .313
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Rob Refsnyder
    • Four-Seam Fastball (34% usage) projects to .332 xwOBA over 224 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 114 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (18% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 62 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (12% usage) projects to .286 xwOBA over 34 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .266 xwOBA over 75 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sweeper (7% usage) projects to .326 xwOBA over 45 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.