PITCHER MATCHUP

Connelly Early vs Seattle Mariners

How the Seattle Mariners's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Connelly Early's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Connelly Early's arsenal

Throws LHPvs LHH xwOBA .244vs RHH xwOBA .332Seasons 2026–2025
Four-Seam Fastball 34%Sinker 19%Changeup 18%Curveball 12%Slider 9%Sweeper 7%

How the Seattle Mariners's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Seattle Mariners's top-9-by-AB hitters against Connelly Early, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .319
  1. 1 JN Josh Naylor LHB .319
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Josh Naylor
    • Four-Seam Fastball (34% usage) projects to .354 xwOBA over 546 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 321 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (18% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 248 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (12% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 94 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .283 xwOBA over 248 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (7% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 118 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 JR Julio Rodríguez RHB .336
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Julio Rodríguez
    • Four-Seam Fastball (34% usage) projects to .336 xwOBA over 497 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .351 xwOBA over 423 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (18% usage) projects to .337 xwOBA over 195 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (12% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 98 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .352 xwOBA over 316 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (7% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 172 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 CY Cole Young LHB .308
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Cole Young
    • Four-Seam Fastball (34% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 282 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 146 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (18% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 103 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (12% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 36 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 109 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (7% usage) projects to .255 xwOBA over 54 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  4. 4 DC Dominic Canzone LHB .348
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Dominic Canzone
    • Four-Seam Fastball (34% usage) projects to .395 xwOBA over 264 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .354 xwOBA over 138 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (18% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 142 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (12% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 63 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .345 xwOBA over 144 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (7% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 52 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 CR Cal Raleigh SH .344
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Cal Raleigh
    • Four-Seam Fastball (34% usage) projects to .347 xwOBA over 642 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .401 xwOBA over 175 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (18% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 314 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (12% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 123 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .332 xwOBA over 204 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (7% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 71 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 WW Weston Wilson RHB .302
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Weston Wilson
    • Four-Seam Fastball (34% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 129 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 58 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (18% usage) projects to .282 xwOBA over 55 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (12% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 26 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .279 xwOBA over 54 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sweeper (7% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 23 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 BD Brendan Donovan LHB .319
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Brendan Donovan
    • Four-Seam Fastball (34% usage) projects to .332 xwOBA over 440 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 248 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (18% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 133 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (12% usage) projects to .338 xwOBA over 91 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 150 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (7% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 83 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 LR Leo Rivas SH .286
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Leo Rivas
    • Four-Seam Fastball (34% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 120 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 56 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (18% usage) projects to .266 xwOBA over 36 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (12% usage) projects to .282 xwOBA over 13 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 42 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (7% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 17 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 JP Jhonny Pereda RHB .305
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jhonny Pereda
    • Four-Seam Fastball (34% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 65 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 34 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (18% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 16 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (12% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 14 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 46 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (7% usage) projects to .329 xwOBA over 13 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.