PITCHER MATCHUP

Carlos Rodón vs Boston Red Sox

How the Boston Red Sox's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Carlos Rodón's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Carlos Rodón's arsenal

Throws LHPvs LHH xwOBA .292vs RHH xwOBA .296Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Four-Seam Fastball 44%Slider 27%Changeup 15%Sinker 9%Curveball 4%Cutter 1%

How the Boston Red Sox's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Boston Red Sox's top-9-by-AB hitters against Carlos Rodón, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .312
  1. 1 WA Wilyer Abreu LHB .312
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Wilyer Abreu
    • Four-Seam Fastball (44% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 409 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (27% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 146 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (15% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 161 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (9% usage) projects to .349 xwOBA over 149 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (4% usage) projects to .347 xwOBA over 69 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  2. 2 JD Jarren Duran LHB .311
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jarren Duran
    • Four-Seam Fastball (44% usage) projects to .338 xwOBA over 564 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (27% usage) projects to .263 xwOBA over 253 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (15% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 186 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (9% usage) projects to .358 xwOBA over 212 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (4% usage) projects to .277 xwOBA over 125 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  3. 3 CR Ceddanne Rafaela RHB .295
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Ceddanne Rafaela
    • Four-Seam Fastball (44% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 389 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (27% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 260 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (15% usage) projects to .256 xwOBA over 150 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (9% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 262 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (4% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 71 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 WC Willson Contreras RHB .355
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Willson Contreras
    • Four-Seam Fastball (44% usage) projects to .363 xwOBA over 386 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (27% usage) projects to .365 xwOBA over 202 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (15% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 103 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (9% usage) projects to .379 xwOBA over 230 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (4% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 64 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 CD Caleb Durbin RHB .308
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Caleb Durbin
    • Four-Seam Fastball (44% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 229 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (27% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 112 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (15% usage) projects to .279 xwOBA over 44 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (9% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 190 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (4% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 38 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 MM Marcelo Mayer LHB .301
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Marcelo Mayer
    • Four-Seam Fastball (44% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 105 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (27% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 51 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (15% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 51 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (9% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 55 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (4% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 29 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 MY Masataka Yoshida LHB .326
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Masataka Yoshida
    • Four-Seam Fastball (44% usage) projects to .330 xwOBA over 277 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (27% usage) projects to .328 xwOBA over 80 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (15% usage) projects to .332 xwOBA over 83 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (9% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 130 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (4% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 48 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 CN Carlos Narváez RHB .305
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Carlos Narváez
    • Four-Seam Fastball (44% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 201 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (27% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 94 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (15% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 59 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (9% usage) projects to .284 xwOBA over 102 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (4% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 31 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 AM Andruw Monasterio RHB .299
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Andruw Monasterio
    • Four-Seam Fastball (44% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 122 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (27% usage) projects to .285 xwOBA over 81 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (15% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 35 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (9% usage) projects to .331 xwOBA over 72 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (4% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 28 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

Next scheduled meeting: 2026-06-28 game page →