PITCHER MATCHUP

Carlos Rodón vs San Diego Padres

How the San Diego Padres's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Carlos Rodón's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Carlos Rodón's arsenal

Throws LHPvs LHH xwOBA .289vs RHH xwOBA .299Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Four-Seam Fastball 44%Slider 27%Changeup 15%Sinker 9%Curveball 4%Cutter 1%

How the San Diego Padres's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the San Diego Padres's top-9-by-AB hitters against Carlos Rodón, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .317
  1. 1 FT Fernando Tatis Jr. RHB .357
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Fernando Tatis Jr.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (44% usage) projects to .384 xwOBA over 447 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (27% usage) projects to .354 xwOBA over 264 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (15% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 166 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (9% usage) projects to .360 xwOBA over 395 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (4% usage) projects to .325 xwOBA over 63 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 JM Jackson Merrill LHB .332
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jackson Merrill
    • Four-Seam Fastball (44% usage) projects to .339 xwOBA over 506 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (27% usage) projects to .325 xwOBA over 198 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (15% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 187 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (9% usage) projects to .361 xwOBA over 225 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (4% usage) projects to .335 xwOBA over 112 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 MM Manny Machado RHB .343
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Manny Machado
    • Four-Seam Fastball (44% usage) projects to .376 xwOBA over 506 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (27% usage) projects to .326 xwOBA over 283 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (15% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 181 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (9% usage) projects to .343 xwOBA over 381 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (4% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 82 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 XB Xander Bogaerts RHB .312
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Xander Bogaerts
    • Four-Seam Fastball (44% usage) projects to .347 xwOBA over 419 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (27% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 184 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (15% usage) projects to .256 xwOBA over 137 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (9% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 349 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (4% usage) projects to .284 xwOBA over 77 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 TF Ty France RHB .310
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Ty France
    • Four-Seam Fastball (44% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 411 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (27% usage) projects to .332 xwOBA over 208 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (15% usage) projects to .265 xwOBA over 127 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (9% usage) projects to .354 xwOBA over 292 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (4% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 81 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 JC Jake Cronenworth LHB .310
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jake Cronenworth
    • Four-Seam Fastball (44% usage) projects to .356 xwOBA over 519 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (27% usage) projects to .261 xwOBA over 157 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (15% usage) projects to .273 xwOBA over 136 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (9% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 266 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (4% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 81 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 FF Freddy Fermin RHB .280
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Freddy Fermin
    • Four-Seam Fastball (44% usage) projects to .283 xwOBA over 275 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (27% usage) projects to .276 xwOBA over 136 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (15% usage) projects to .263 xwOBA over 71 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (9% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 208 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (4% usage) projects to .286 xwOBA over 46 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 LC Luis Campusano RHB .314
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Luis Campusano
    • Four-Seam Fastball (44% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 142 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (27% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 69 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (15% usage) projects to .281 xwOBA over 39 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (9% usage) projects to .330 xwOBA over 98 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (4% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 30 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 SS Sung-Mun Song LHB .296
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Sung-Mun Song
    • Four-Seam Fastball (44% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 47 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (27% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 14 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (15% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 18 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (9% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 18 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (4% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 4 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

Next scheduled meeting: 2026-09-05 game page →