PITCHER MATCHUP

Bryce Miller vs Boston Red Sox

How the Boston Red Sox's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Bryce Miller's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Bryce Miller's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .330vs RHH xwOBA .298Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Four-Seam Fastball 40%Splitter 20%Sinker 13%Slider 10%Knuckle Curve 7%Sweeper 7%Cutter 3%

How the Boston Red Sox's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Boston Red Sox's top-9-by-AB hitters against Bryce Miller, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .310
  1. 1 WA Wilyer Abreu LHB .320
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Wilyer Abreu
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 494 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (20% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 79 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (13% usage) projects to .371 xwOBA over 195 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (10% usage) projects to .338 xwOBA over 176 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (7% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 19 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (7% usage) projects to .332 xwOBA over 71 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (3% usage) projects to .342 xwOBA over 111 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  2. 2 JD Jarren Duran LHB .315
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jarren Duran
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 640 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (20% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 102 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (13% usage) projects to .369 xwOBA over 234 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (10% usage) projects to .274 xwOBA over 276 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Knuckle Curve (7% usage) projects to .276 xwOBA over 38 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sweeper (7% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 104 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (3% usage) projects to .333 xwOBA over 184 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 CD Caleb Durbin RHB .303
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Caleb Durbin
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .325 xwOBA over 306 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (20% usage) projects to .283 xwOBA over 25 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (13% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 259 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (10% usage) projects to .283 xwOBA over 135 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (7% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 6 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (7% usage) projects to .263 xwOBA over 74 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (3% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 80 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 WC Willson Contreras RHB .338
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Willson Contreras
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .358 xwOBA over 447 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Splitter (20% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 37 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (13% usage) projects to .384 xwOBA over 258 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (10% usage) projects to .354 xwOBA over 223 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Knuckle Curve (7% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 20 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (7% usage) projects to .266 xwOBA over 125 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (3% usage) projects to .330 xwOBA over 83 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 AR Adley Rutschman SH .325
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Adley Rutschman
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .343 xwOBA over 446 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Splitter (20% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 66 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (13% usage) projects to .338 xwOBA over 170 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (10% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 149 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (7% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 24 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (7% usage) projects to .279 xwOBA over 75 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (3% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 118 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 AM Andruw Monasterio RHB .295
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Andruw Monasterio
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 181 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (20% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 9 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (13% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 98 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (10% usage) projects to .267 xwOBA over 116 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Knuckle Curve (7% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 3 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (7% usage) projects to .268 xwOBA over 33 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (3% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 45 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 TS Trevor Story RHB .298
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Trevor Story
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 301 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (20% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 32 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (13% usage) projects to .349 xwOBA over 145 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (10% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 169 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (7% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 19 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (7% usage) projects to .245 xwOBA over 107 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (3% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 59 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 CW Connor Wong RHB .293
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Connor Wong
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 252 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (20% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 23 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (13% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 179 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (10% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 149 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (7% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 16 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (7% usage) projects to .258 xwOBA over 76 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (3% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 61 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 NS Nick Sogard SH .307
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Nick Sogard
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 139 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (20% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 11 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (13% usage) projects to .327 xwOBA over 60 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (10% usage) projects to .282 xwOBA over 56 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (7% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 4 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (7% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 14 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (3% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 34 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.