PITCHER MATCHUP

Bryce Miller vs Boston Red Sox

How the Boston Red Sox's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Bryce Miller's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Bryce Miller's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .318vs RHH xwOBA .288Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Four-Seam Fastball 42%Splitter 20%Sinker 13%Slider 10%Knuckle Curve 7%Sweeper 6%Cutter 2%

How the Boston Red Sox's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Boston Red Sox's top-9-by-AB hitters against Bryce Miller, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .310
  1. 1 WA Wilyer Abreu LHB .311
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Wilyer Abreu
    • Four-Seam Fastball (42% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 447 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (20% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 70 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (13% usage) projects to .365 xwOBA over 169 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (10% usage) projects to .329 xwOBA over 155 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (7% usage) projects to .329 xwOBA over 18 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (6% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 62 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (2% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 96 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 CR Ceddanne Rafaela RHB .294
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Ceddanne Rafaela
    • Four-Seam Fastball (42% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 420 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (20% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 43 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (13% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 278 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (10% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 274 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (7% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 29 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (6% usage) projects to .277 xwOBA over 139 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (2% usage) projects to .282 xwOBA over 105 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 JD Jarren Duran LHB .320
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jarren Duran
    • Four-Seam Fastball (42% usage) projects to .326 xwOBA over 597 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (20% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 95 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (13% usage) projects to .377 xwOBA over 221 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (10% usage) projects to .262 xwOBA over 261 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Knuckle Curve (7% usage) projects to .280 xwOBA over 36 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (6% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 98 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (2% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 172 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 WC Willson Contreras RHB .343
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Willson Contreras
    • Four-Seam Fastball (42% usage) projects to .366 xwOBA over 416 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Splitter (20% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 36 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (13% usage) projects to .392 xwOBA over 244 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (10% usage) projects to .344 xwOBA over 211 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Knuckle Curve (7% usage) projects to .326 xwOBA over 19 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (6% usage) projects to .272 xwOBA over 112 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (2% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 80 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 CD Caleb Durbin RHB .306
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Caleb Durbin
    • Four-Seam Fastball (42% usage) projects to .326 xwOBA over 257 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (20% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 20 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (13% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 223 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (10% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 119 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (7% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 5 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (6% usage) projects to .264 xwOBA over 61 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (2% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 72 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 MY Masataka Yoshida LHB .320
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Masataka Yoshida
    • Four-Seam Fastball (42% usage) projects to .337 xwOBA over 295 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (20% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 49 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (13% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 140 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (10% usage) projects to .325 xwOBA over 81 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (7% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 21 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (6% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 43 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (2% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 75 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 AM Andruw Monasterio RHB .305
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Andruw Monasterio
    • Four-Seam Fastball (42% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 143 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (20% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 7 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (13% usage) projects to .325 xwOBA over 82 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (10% usage) projects to .273 xwOBA over 95 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Knuckle Curve (7% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 3 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (6% usage) projects to .282 xwOBA over 22 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (2% usage) projects to .325 xwOBA over 39 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 CN Carlos Narváez RHB .293
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Carlos Narváez
    • Four-Seam Fastball (42% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 212 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (20% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 18 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (13% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 109 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (10% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 102 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (7% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 9 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (6% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 48 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (2% usage) projects to .266 xwOBA over 41 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  9. 9 CW Connor Wong RHB .295
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Connor Wong
    • Four-Seam Fastball (42% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 235 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (20% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 20 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (13% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 159 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (10% usage) projects to .278 xwOBA over 144 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Knuckle Curve (7% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 15 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (6% usage) projects to .266 xwOBA over 70 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (2% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 58 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.