Starting Pitcher · Seattle Mariners
Bryce Miller
RHP · Throws Right · Age 28Starter
Model projection · strikeout prop
55.4%
55.4% against a 57.7% break-even. Over 4.5 Ks, tonight vs. CHC. Confidence medium.
Drafted by the Seattle Mariners in 2021 (round 4). He made his MLB debut on May 2, 2023.Facts: MLB StatsAPI (people · transactions)
Tonight's Matchup
vs. Cubs · pregame
Projected xwOBA vs. Cubs current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) — season profile, not tonight's posted lineup · lineup avg .322
-
1
NH
Nico Hoerner
RHB
.317
Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Nico Hoerner
- Four-Seam Fastball (41% usage) projects to .330 xwOBA over 545 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Splitter (21% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 40 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Sinker (12% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 417 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Slider (9% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 251 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Knuckle Curve (7% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 22 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Sweeper (7% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 144 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Cutter (3% usage) projects to .286 xwOBA over 129 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
-
2
AB
Alex Bregman
RHB
.325
Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Alex Bregman
- Four-Seam Fastball (41% usage) projects to .335 xwOBA over 530 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Splitter (21% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 31 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Sinker (12% usage) projects to .332 xwOBA over 405 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Slider (9% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 248 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Knuckle Curve (7% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 22 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Sweeper (7% usage) projects to .279 xwOBA over 102 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
- Cutter (3% usage) projects to .360 xwOBA over 113 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
-
3
PC
Pete Crow-Armstrong
LHB
.324
Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Pete Crow-Armstrong
- Four-Seam Fastball (41% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 481 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Splitter (21% usage) projects to .346 xwOBA over 72 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
- Sinker (12% usage) projects to .354 xwOBA over 192 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
- Slider (9% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 202 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Knuckle Curve (7% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 40 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Sweeper (7% usage) projects to .276 xwOBA over 119 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
- Cutter (3% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 114 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
-
4
MB
Michael Busch
LHB
.334
Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Michael Busch
- Four-Seam Fastball (41% usage) projects to .352 xwOBA over 571 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
- Splitter (21% usage) projects to .287 xwOBA over 62 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Sinker (12% usage) projects to .367 xwOBA over 219 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
- Slider (9% usage) projects to .327 xwOBA over 225 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Knuckle Curve (7% usage) projects to .342 xwOBA over 20 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
- Sweeper (7% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 109 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Cutter (3% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 141 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
-
5
IH
Ian Happ
SH
.320
Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Ian Happ
- Four-Seam Fastball (41% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 596 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Splitter (21% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 80 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Sinker (12% usage) projects to .381 xwOBA over 212 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
- Slider (9% usage) projects to .280 xwOBA over 190 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Knuckle Curve (7% usage) projects to .332 xwOBA over 38 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Sweeper (7% usage) projects to .266 xwOBA over 103 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
- Cutter (3% usage) projects to .339 xwOBA over 136 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
-
6
SS
Seiya Suzuki
RHB
.336
Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Seiya Suzuki
- Four-Seam Fastball (41% usage) projects to .360 xwOBA over 459 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
- Splitter (21% usage) projects to .326 xwOBA over 43 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Sinker (12% usage) projects to .395 xwOBA over 333 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
- Slider (9% usage) projects to .267 xwOBA over 285 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
- Knuckle Curve (7% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 22 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Sweeper (7% usage) projects to .266 xwOBA over 152 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
- Cutter (3% usage) projects to .272 xwOBA over 118 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
-
7
CK
Carson Kelly
RHB
.306
Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Carson Kelly
- Four-Seam Fastball (41% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 318 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Splitter (21% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 15 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Sinker (12% usage) projects to .325 xwOBA over 219 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Slider (9% usage) projects to .261 xwOBA over 170 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
- Knuckle Curve (7% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 9 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Sweeper (7% usage) projects to .275 xwOBA over 85 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
- Cutter (3% usage) projects to .277 xwOBA over 71 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
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8
MC
Michael Conforto
LHB
.325
Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Michael Conforto
- Four-Seam Fastball (41% usage) projects to .338 xwOBA over 428 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Splitter (21% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 38 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Sinker (12% usage) projects to .371 xwOBA over 164 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
- Slider (9% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 129 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Knuckle Curve (7% usage) projects to .284 xwOBA over 22 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Sweeper (7% usage) projects to .278 xwOBA over 72 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
- Cutter (3% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 77 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
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9
MA
Miguel Amaya
RHB
.309
Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Miguel Amaya
- Four-Seam Fastball (41% usage) projects to .325 xwOBA over 173 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Splitter (21% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 16 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Sinker (12% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 126 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Slider (9% usage) projects to .280 xwOBA over 110 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Knuckle Curve (7% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 10 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Sweeper (7% usage) projects to .281 xwOBA over 62 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Cutter (3% usage) projects to .274 xwOBA over 47 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
Four-Seam Fastball
FF · lead pitch
41% of pitches · .313 xwOBA allowed · 546 BIP · where it goes, what it costs
Pitcher Locations
where he throws it · catcher’s view
xwOBA Allowed
damage done by zone · all batters
Expected Damage
locations × damage zones
Four-Seam Fastball (41% usage) has allowed .313 xwOBA over 546 balls in play — his most-used pitch.
Arsenal
usage × whiff, ranked
7 pitch types · 5,484-pitch sample · 2026/2025/2024 blend, weighted 4/3/1
Four-Seam Fastball FF
41% usage · 19% whiff · .313 xwOBA · 96.1 mph
Splitter FS
21% usage · 27% whiff · .238 xwOBA · 84.8 mph
Sinker SI
12% usage · 7% whiff · .393 xwOBA · 95.1 mph
Slider SL
9% usage · 31% whiff · .383 xwOBA · 88.0 mph
Knuckle Curve KC
7% usage · 30% whiff · .268 xwOBA · 83.1 mph
Sweeper ST
7% usage · 22% whiff · .253 xwOBA · 83.8 mph
Cutter FC
3% usage · 31% whiff · .364 xwOBA · 91.1 mph
Whiff% Trend
last 8 outings · by pitch · min 5 swings per point
Four-Seam FastballSplitterSinker
Hand Splits
K% + xwOBA allowed by batter side · 2026/2025/2024 blend, weighted 4/3/1
| Split | K% | xwOBA | Sample |
|---|
| vs. LHB | 21.8 |
.316 |
717 |
| vs. RHB | 24.6 |
.293 |
674 |
Live · client-hydrated
Market lines
current pick’em lines by book · updates through the day
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Live · client-hydrated
DFS picks
today’s picks for this pitcher, probability-sorted · graded nightly
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