Starting Pitcher · Seattle Mariners
Bryce Miller
RHP · Throws Right · Age 27Starter
Model projection · strikeout prop
40.5%
40.5% against a 57.7% break-even. Over 5.5 Ks, tonight vs. MIA. Confidence low.
Drafted by the Seattle Mariners in 2021 (round 4). He made his MLB debut on May 2, 2023.Facts: MLB StatsAPI (people · transactions)
Tonight's Matchup
vs. Marlins · pregame
Projected xwOBA vs. Marlins current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) — season profile, not tonight's posted lineup · lineup avg .320
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1
OL
Otto Lopez
RHB
.339
Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Otto Lopez
- Four-Seam Fastball (42% usage) projects to .374 xwOBA over 340 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
- Splitter (20% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 51 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Sinker (13% usage) projects to .371 xwOBA over 291 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
- Slider (10% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 245 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Knuckle Curve (8% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 25 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Sweeper (6% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 110 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Cutter (2% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 93 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
-
2
XE
Xavier Edwards
SH
.320
Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Xavier Edwards
- Four-Seam Fastball (42% usage) projects to .344 xwOBA over 437 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
- Splitter (20% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 44 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Sinker (13% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 219 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Slider (10% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 123 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Knuckle Curve (8% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 23 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Sweeper (6% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 69 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Cutter (2% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 104 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
-
3
JM
Jakob Marsee
LHB
.311
Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jakob Marsee
- Four-Seam Fastball (42% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 211 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Splitter (20% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 27 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Sinker (13% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 93 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Slider (10% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 68 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Knuckle Curve (8% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 16 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Sweeper (6% usage) projects to .325 xwOBA over 33 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Cutter (2% usage) projects to .279 xwOBA over 54 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
-
4
LH
Liam Hicks
LHB
.319
Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Liam Hicks
- Four-Seam Fastball (42% usage) projects to .349 xwOBA over 254 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
- Splitter (20% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 33 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Sinker (13% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 121 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Slider (10% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 76 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Knuckle Curve (8% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 10 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Sweeper (6% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 29 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Cutter (2% usage) projects to .286 xwOBA over 52 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
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5
KS
Kyle Stowers
LHB
.327
Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Kyle Stowers
- Four-Seam Fastball (42% usage) projects to .332 xwOBA over 335 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Splitter (20% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 51 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Sinker (13% usage) projects to .332 xwOBA over 116 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Slider (10% usage) projects to .339 xwOBA over 123 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Knuckle Curve (8% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 12 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Sweeper (6% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 45 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Cutter (2% usage) projects to .337 xwOBA over 72 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
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6
OC
Owen Caissie
LHB
.318
Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Owen Caissie
- Four-Seam Fastball (42% usage) projects to .337 xwOBA over 73 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Splitter (20% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 14 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Sinker (13% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 36 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Slider (10% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 40 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Knuckle Curve (8% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 6 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Sweeper (6% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 19 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Cutter (2% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 20 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
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7
JS
Javier Sanoja
RHB
.299
Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Javier Sanoja
- Four-Seam Fastball (42% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 189 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Splitter (20% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 18 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Sinker (13% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 105 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Slider (10% usage) projects to .286 xwOBA over 106 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Knuckle Curve (8% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 8 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Sweeper (6% usage) projects to .263 xwOBA over 40 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
- Cutter (2% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 40 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
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8
HH
Heriberto Hernández
RHB
.329
Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Heriberto Hernández
- Four-Seam Fastball (42% usage) projects to .343 xwOBA over 141 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
- Splitter (20% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 11 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Sinker (13% usage) projects to .347 xwOBA over 104 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
- Slider (10% usage) projects to .335 xwOBA over 76 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Knuckle Curve (8% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 5 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Sweeper (6% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 46 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Cutter (2% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 35 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
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9
JM
Joe Mack
LHB
.322
Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Joe Mack
- Four-Seam Fastball (42% usage) projects to .326 xwOBA over 43 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Splitter (20% usage) projects to .330 xwOBA over 5 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Sinker (13% usage) projects to .325 xwOBA over 27 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Slider (10% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 19 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Knuckle Curve (8% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 4 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Sweeper (6% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 11 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Cutter (2% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 14 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Four-Seam Fastball
FF · lead pitch
42% of pitches · .321 xwOBA allowed · 500 BIP · where it goes, what it costs
Pitcher Locations
where he throws it · catcher’s view
xwOBA Allowed
damage done by zone · all batters
Expected Damage
locations × damage zones
Four-Seam Fastball (42% usage) has allowed .321 xwOBA over 500 balls in play — his most-used pitch.
Arsenal
usage × whiff, ranked
7 pitch types · 5,040-pitch sample · 2026/2025/2024 blend, weighted 4/3/1
Four-Seam Fastball FF
42% usage · 20% whiff · .321 xwOBA · 96.4 mph
Splitter FS
20% usage · 27% whiff · .222 xwOBA · 85.4 mph
Sinker SI
13% usage · 7% whiff · .385 xwOBA
Slider SL
10% usage · 31% whiff · .378 xwOBA · 88.3 mph
Knuckle Curve KC
8% usage · 31% whiff · .283 xwOBA · 82.9 mph
Sweeper ST
6% usage · 25% whiff · .223 xwOBA · 84.3 mph
Cutter FC
2% usage · 32% whiff · .261 xwOBA · 90.6 mph
Whiff% Trend
last 8 outings · by pitch · min 5 swings per point
Four-Seam FastballSplitterSinker
Hand Splits
K% + xwOBA allowed by batter side · 2026/2025/2024 blend, weighted 4/3/1
| Split | K% | xwOBA | Sample |
|---|
| vs. LHB | 23.1 |
.317 |
644 |
| vs. RHB | 25.6 |
.288 |
628 |
Live · client-hydrated
Market lines
current pick’em lines by book · updates through the day
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Live · client-hydrated
DFS picks
today’s picks for this pitcher, probability-sorted · graded nightly
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