PITCHER MATCHUP

Bryce Miller vs Pittsburgh Pirates

How the Pittsburgh Pirates's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Bryce Miller's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Bryce Miller's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .319vs RHH xwOBA .299Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Four-Seam Fastball 43%Splitter 19%Sinker 14%Slider 10%Knuckle Curve 8%Sweeper 6%Cutter 2%

How the Pittsburgh Pirates's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Pittsburgh Pirates's top-9-by-AB hitters against Bryce Miller, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .315
  1. 1 BL Brandon Lowe SH .338
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Brandon Lowe
    • Four-Seam Fastball (43% usage) projects to .375 xwOBA over 330 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Splitter (19% usage) projects to .280 xwOBA over 76 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (14% usage) projects to .368 xwOBA over 163 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (10% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 198 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (8% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 27 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (6% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 81 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (2% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 100 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 BR Bryan Reynolds SH .331
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Bryan Reynolds
    • Four-Seam Fastball (43% usage) projects to .357 xwOBA over 487 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Splitter (19% usage) projects to .269 xwOBA over 54 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (14% usage) projects to .380 xwOBA over 218 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (10% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 227 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (8% usage) projects to .275 xwOBA over 38 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sweeper (6% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 99 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (2% usage) projects to .365 xwOBA over 132 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  3. 3 NG Nick Gonzales RHB .304
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Nick Gonzales
    • Four-Seam Fastball (43% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 265 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (19% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 18 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (14% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 240 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (10% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 187 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (8% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 17 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (6% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 107 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (2% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 82 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 SH Spencer Horwitz LHB .311
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Spencer Horwitz
    • Four-Seam Fastball (43% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 366 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (19% usage) projects to .330 xwOBA over 47 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (14% usage) projects to .334 xwOBA over 158 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (10% usage) projects to .275 xwOBA over 133 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Knuckle Curve (8% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 18 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (6% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 63 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (2% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 95 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 RO Ryan O'Hearn LHB .333
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Ryan O'Hearn
    • Four-Seam Fastball (43% usage) projects to .354 xwOBA over 410 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Splitter (19% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 51 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (14% usage) projects to .357 xwOBA over 205 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (10% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 179 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (8% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 29 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (6% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 62 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (2% usage) projects to .276 xwOBA over 92 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  6. 6 MO Marcell Ozuna RHB .333
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Marcell Ozuna
    • Four-Seam Fastball (43% usage) projects to .370 xwOBA over 409 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Splitter (19% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 36 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (14% usage) projects to .335 xwOBA over 330 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (10% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 221 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (8% usage) projects to .274 xwOBA over 34 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sweeper (6% usage) projects to .278 xwOBA over 121 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (2% usage) projects to .345 xwOBA over 86 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  7. 7 JM Jake Mangum SH .299
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jake Mangum
    • Four-Seam Fastball (43% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 149 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (19% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 28 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (14% usage) projects to .276 xwOBA over 86 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (10% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 82 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (8% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 13 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (6% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 37 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (2% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 37 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 JT Jared Triolo RHB .292
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jared Triolo
    • Four-Seam Fastball (43% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 324 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (19% usage) projects to .274 xwOBA over 16 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (14% usage) projects to .334 xwOBA over 202 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (10% usage) projects to .281 xwOBA over 136 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (8% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 11 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (6% usage) projects to .250 xwOBA over 76 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (2% usage) projects to .287 xwOBA over 57 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 HD Henry Davis RHB .296
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Henry Davis
    • Four-Seam Fastball (43% usage) projects to .278 xwOBA over 181 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Splitter (19% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 11 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (14% usage) projects to .334 xwOBA over 107 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (10% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 98 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (8% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 4 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (6% usage) projects to .281 xwOBA over 44 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (2% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 30 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

Next scheduled meeting: 2026-06-25 game page →