PITCHER MATCHUP

Bryce Miller vs Pittsburgh Pirates

How the Pittsburgh Pirates's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Bryce Miller's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Bryce Miller's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .330vs RHH xwOBA .298Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Four-Seam Fastball 40%Splitter 20%Sinker 13%Slider 10%Knuckle Curve 7%Sweeper 7%Cutter 3%

How the Pittsburgh Pirates's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Pittsburgh Pirates's top-9-by-AB hitters against Bryce Miller, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .315
  1. 1 BR Bryan Reynolds SH .328
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Bryan Reynolds
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .358 xwOBA over 562 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Splitter (20% usage) projects to .263 xwOBA over 62 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (13% usage) projects to .368 xwOBA over 265 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (10% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 275 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (7% usage) projects to .261 xwOBA over 44 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sweeper (7% usage) projects to .336 xwOBA over 120 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (3% usage) projects to .409 xwOBA over 163 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  2. 2 BL Brandon Lowe SH .327
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Brandon Lowe
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .364 xwOBA over 399 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Splitter (20% usage) projects to .279 xwOBA over 87 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (13% usage) projects to .356 xwOBA over 215 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (10% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 244 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (7% usage) projects to .282 xwOBA over 33 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (7% usage) projects to .287 xwOBA over 102 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (3% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 123 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 NG Nick Gonzales RHB .308
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Nick Gonzales
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 335 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (20% usage) projects to .286 xwOBA over 27 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (13% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 306 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (10% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 213 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (7% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 22 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (7% usage) projects to .287 xwOBA over 131 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (3% usage) projects to .287 xwOBA over 106 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 JM Jake Mangum SH .300
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jake Mangum
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 225 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (20% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 39 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (13% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 125 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (10% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 113 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (7% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 19 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (7% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 53 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (3% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 63 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 RO Ryan O'Hearn LHB .325
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Ryan O'Hearn
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .343 xwOBA over 449 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Splitter (20% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 55 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (13% usage) projects to .352 xwOBA over 239 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (10% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 199 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (7% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 31 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (7% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 74 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (3% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 108 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 SH Spencer Horwitz LHB .305
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Spencer Horwitz
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 416 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (20% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 54 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (13% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 182 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (10% usage) projects to .273 xwOBA over 146 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Knuckle Curve (7% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 20 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (7% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 80 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (3% usage) projects to .283 xwOBA over 103 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 OC Oneil Cruz LHB .344
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Oneil Cruz
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .382 xwOBA over 379 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Splitter (20% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 72 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (13% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 232 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (10% usage) projects to .327 xwOBA over 214 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (7% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 45 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (7% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 113 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (3% usage) projects to .427 xwOBA over 107 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  8. 8 JT Jared Triolo RHB .293
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jared Triolo
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 374 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (20% usage) projects to .269 xwOBA over 22 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (13% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 257 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (10% usage) projects to .284 xwOBA over 151 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (7% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 11 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (7% usage) projects to .276 xwOBA over 97 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (3% usage) projects to .266 xwOBA over 71 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  9. 9 KG Konnor Griffin RHB .308
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Konnor Griffin
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 67 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (20% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 8 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (13% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 70 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (10% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 48 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (7% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 4 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (7% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 28 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (3% usage) projects to .335 xwOBA over 20 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.