PITCHER MATCHUP

Bryce Miller vs Chicago Cubs

How the Chicago Cubs's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Bryce Miller's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Bryce Miller's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .316vs RHH xwOBA .293Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Four-Seam Fastball 41%Splitter 21%Sinker 12%Slider 9%Knuckle Curve 7%Sweeper 7%Cutter 3%

How the Chicago Cubs's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Chicago Cubs's top-9-by-AB hitters against Bryce Miller, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .322
  1. 1 NH Nico Hoerner RHB .317
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Nico Hoerner
    • Four-Seam Fastball (41% usage) projects to .330 xwOBA over 545 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (21% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 40 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (12% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 417 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 251 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (7% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 22 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (7% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 144 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (3% usage) projects to .286 xwOBA over 129 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 AB Alex Bregman RHB .325
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Alex Bregman
    • Four-Seam Fastball (41% usage) projects to .335 xwOBA over 530 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (21% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 31 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (12% usage) projects to .332 xwOBA over 405 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 248 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (7% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 22 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (7% usage) projects to .279 xwOBA over 102 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (3% usage) projects to .360 xwOBA over 113 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  3. 3 PC Pete Crow-Armstrong LHB .324
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Pete Crow-Armstrong
    • Four-Seam Fastball (41% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 481 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (21% usage) projects to .346 xwOBA over 72 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (12% usage) projects to .354 xwOBA over 192 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 202 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (7% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 40 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (7% usage) projects to .276 xwOBA over 119 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (3% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 114 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 MB Michael Busch LHB .334
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Michael Busch
    • Four-Seam Fastball (41% usage) projects to .352 xwOBA over 571 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Splitter (21% usage) projects to .287 xwOBA over 62 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (12% usage) projects to .367 xwOBA over 219 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .327 xwOBA over 225 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (7% usage) projects to .342 xwOBA over 20 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (7% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 109 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (3% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 141 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 IH Ian Happ SH .320
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Ian Happ
    • Four-Seam Fastball (41% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 596 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (21% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 80 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (12% usage) projects to .381 xwOBA over 212 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .280 xwOBA over 190 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (7% usage) projects to .332 xwOBA over 38 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (7% usage) projects to .266 xwOBA over 103 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (3% usage) projects to .339 xwOBA over 136 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 SS Seiya Suzuki RHB .336
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Seiya Suzuki
    • Four-Seam Fastball (41% usage) projects to .360 xwOBA over 459 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Splitter (21% usage) projects to .326 xwOBA over 43 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (12% usage) projects to .395 xwOBA over 333 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .267 xwOBA over 285 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Knuckle Curve (7% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 22 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (7% usage) projects to .266 xwOBA over 152 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (3% usage) projects to .272 xwOBA over 118 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  7. 7 CK Carson Kelly RHB .306
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Carson Kelly
    • Four-Seam Fastball (41% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 318 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (21% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 15 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (12% usage) projects to .325 xwOBA over 219 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .261 xwOBA over 170 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Knuckle Curve (7% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 9 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (7% usage) projects to .275 xwOBA over 85 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (3% usage) projects to .277 xwOBA over 71 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  8. 8 MC Michael Conforto LHB .325
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Michael Conforto
    • Four-Seam Fastball (41% usage) projects to .338 xwOBA over 428 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (21% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 38 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (12% usage) projects to .371 xwOBA over 164 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 129 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (7% usage) projects to .284 xwOBA over 22 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (7% usage) projects to .278 xwOBA over 72 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (3% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 77 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 MA Miguel Amaya RHB .309
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Miguel Amaya
    • Four-Seam Fastball (41% usage) projects to .325 xwOBA over 173 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (21% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 16 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (12% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 126 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .280 xwOBA over 110 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (7% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 10 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (7% usage) projects to .281 xwOBA over 62 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (3% usage) projects to .274 xwOBA over 47 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

Next scheduled meeting: 2026-08-23 game page →