PITCHER MATCHUP

Bryce Elder vs Pittsburgh Pirates

How the Pittsburgh Pirates's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Bryce Elder's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Bryce Elder's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .309vs RHH xwOBA .331Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Sinker 35%Slider 30%Four-Seam Fastball 17%Changeup 10%Cutter 7%

How the Pittsburgh Pirates's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Pittsburgh Pirates's top-9-by-AB hitters against Bryce Elder, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .312
  1. 1 BL Brandon Lowe SH .323
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Brandon Lowe
    • Sinker (35% usage) projects to .366 xwOBA over 198 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (30% usage) projects to .274 xwOBA over 228 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (17% usage) projects to .336 xwOBA over 378 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 217 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (7% usage) projects to .327 xwOBA over 115 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 BR Bryan Reynolds SH .329
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Bryan Reynolds
    • Sinker (35% usage) projects to .355 xwOBA over 245 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (30% usage) projects to .270 xwOBA over 257 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (17% usage) projects to .349 xwOBA over 538 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .340 xwOBA over 268 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (7% usage) projects to .382 xwOBA over 155 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  3. 3 NG Nick Gonzales RHB .308
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Nick Gonzales
    • Sinker (35% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 284 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (30% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 204 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (17% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 310 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .345 xwOBA over 97 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (7% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 98 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 JM Jake Mangum SH .288
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jake Mangum
    • Sinker (35% usage) projects to .282 xwOBA over 117 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (30% usage) projects to .285 xwOBA over 103 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (17% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 200 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .263 xwOBA over 108 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (7% usage) projects to .334 xwOBA over 56 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 SH Spencer Horwitz LHB .314
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Spencer Horwitz
    • Sinker (35% usage) projects to .347 xwOBA over 166 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (30% usage) projects to .286 xwOBA over 137 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (17% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 390 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 126 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (7% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 98 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 JT Jared Triolo RHB .307
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jared Triolo
    • Sinker (35% usage) projects to .333 xwOBA over 238 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (30% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 142 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (17% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 365 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .279 xwOBA over 91 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (7% usage) projects to .270 xwOBA over 69 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  7. 7 OC Oneil Cruz LHB .324
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Oneil Cruz
    • Sinker (35% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 219 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (30% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 199 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (17% usage) projects to .365 xwOBA over 355 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .251 xwOBA over 173 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (7% usage) projects to .431 xwOBA over 100 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  8. 8 HD Henry Davis RHB .289
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Henry Davis
    • Sinker (35% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 126 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (30% usage) projects to .281 xwOBA over 108 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (17% usage) projects to .254 xwOBA over 211 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .266 xwOBA over 45 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (7% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 38 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 EV Esmerlyn Valdez RHB .325
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Esmerlyn Valdez
    • Sinker (35% usage) projects to .334 xwOBA over 35 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (30% usage) projects to .344 xwOBA over 31 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (17% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 65 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 25 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (7% usage) projects to .327 xwOBA over 12 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.