PITCHER MATCHUP

Bryce Elder vs Pittsburgh Pirates

How the Pittsburgh Pirates's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Bryce Elder's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Bryce Elder's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .312vs RHH xwOBA .331Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Sinker 35%Slider 29%Four-Seam Fastball 17%Changeup 11%Cutter 8%

How the Pittsburgh Pirates's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Pittsburgh Pirates's top-9-by-AB hitters against Bryce Elder, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .314
  1. 1 BR Bryan Reynolds SH .334
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Bryan Reynolds
    • Sinker (35% usage) projects to .367 xwOBA over 267 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (29% usage) projects to .271 xwOBA over 281 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (17% usage) projects to .356 xwOBA over 569 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 294 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (8% usage) projects to .389 xwOBA over 164 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  2. 2 BL Brandon Lowe SH .322
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Brandon Lowe
    • Sinker (35% usage) projects to .361 xwOBA over 221 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (29% usage) projects to .263 xwOBA over 248 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (17% usage) projects to .347 xwOBA over 406 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 237 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (8% usage) projects to .342 xwOBA over 126 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  3. 3 NG Nick Gonzales RHB .310
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Nick Gonzales
    • Sinker (35% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 311 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (29% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 217 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (17% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 343 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .332 xwOBA over 107 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (8% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 107 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 JM Jake Mangum SH .289
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jake Mangum
    • Sinker (35% usage) projects to .287 xwOBA over 126 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (29% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 119 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (17% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 229 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .266 xwOBA over 118 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (8% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 65 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 RO Ryan O'Hearn LHB .319
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Ryan O'Hearn
    • Sinker (35% usage) projects to .356 xwOBA over 242 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (29% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 202 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (17% usage) projects to .327 xwOBA over 459 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 160 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (8% usage) projects to .286 xwOBA over 113 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 SH Spencer Horwitz LHB .307
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Spencer Horwitz
    • Sinker (35% usage) projects to .328 xwOBA over 184 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (29% usage) projects to .287 xwOBA over 150 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (17% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 424 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 132 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (8% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 104 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 OC Oneil Cruz LHB .323
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Oneil Cruz
    • Sinker (35% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 236 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (29% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 222 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (17% usage) projects to .375 xwOBA over 379 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .259 xwOBA over 194 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (8% usage) projects to .417 xwOBA over 109 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  8. 8 JT Jared Triolo RHB .302
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jared Triolo
    • Sinker (35% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 258 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (29% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 153 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (17% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 375 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 103 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (8% usage) projects to .266 xwOBA over 73 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  9. 9 KG Konnor Griffin RHB .316
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Konnor Griffin
    • Sinker (35% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 76 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (29% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 54 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (17% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 76 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 36 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (8% usage) projects to .353 xwOBA over 24 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.