PITCHER MATCHUP

Bryce Elder vs Pittsburgh Pirates

How the Pittsburgh Pirates's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Bryce Elder's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Bryce Elder's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .314vs RHH xwOBA .325Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Sinker 36%Slider 32%Four-Seam Fastball 17%Changeup 10%Cutter 6%

How the Pittsburgh Pirates's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Pittsburgh Pirates's top-9-by-AB hitters against Bryce Elder, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .313
  1. 1 BR Bryan Reynolds SH .334
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Bryan Reynolds
    • Sinker (36% usage) projects to .375 xwOBA over 226 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (32% usage) projects to .265 xwOBA over 241 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (17% usage) projects to .358 xwOBA over 498 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .338 xwOBA over 255 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (6% usage) projects to .377 xwOBA over 138 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  2. 2 BL Brandon Lowe SH .327
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Brandon Lowe
    • Sinker (36% usage) projects to .367 xwOBA over 175 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (32% usage) projects to .276 xwOBA over 209 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (17% usage) projects to .342 xwOBA over 348 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 204 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (6% usage) projects to .337 xwOBA over 104 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 NG Nick Gonzales RHB .303
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Nick Gonzales
    • Sinker (36% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 261 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (32% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 193 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (17% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 279 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .343 xwOBA over 85 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (6% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 85 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 RO Ryan O'Hearn LHB .323
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Ryan O'Hearn
    • Sinker (36% usage) projects to .360 xwOBA over 216 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (32% usage) projects to .282 xwOBA over 187 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (17% usage) projects to .338 xwOBA over 430 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 152 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (6% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 99 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 KG Konnor Griffin RHB .310
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Konnor Griffin
    • Sinker (36% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 59 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (32% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 42 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (17% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 52 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 25 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (6% usage) projects to .350 xwOBA over 18 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  6. 6 MO Marcell Ozuna RHB .337
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Marcell Ozuna
    • Sinker (36% usage) projects to .340 xwOBA over 334 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (32% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 224 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (17% usage) projects to .380 xwOBA over 415 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 149 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (6% usage) projects to .378 xwOBA over 86 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  7. 7 JM Jake Mangum SH .283
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jake Mangum
    • Sinker (36% usage) projects to .276 xwOBA over 94 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (32% usage) projects to .280 xwOBA over 90 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (17% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 162 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .273 xwOBA over 98 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (6% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 44 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 JT Jared Triolo RHB .308
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jared Triolo
    • Sinker (36% usage) projects to .326 xwOBA over 218 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (32% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 140 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (17% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 335 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .284 xwOBA over 83 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (6% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 59 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 HD Henry Davis RHB .292
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Henry Davis
    • Sinker (36% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 113 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (32% usage) projects to .280 xwOBA over 102 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (17% usage) projects to .271 xwOBA over 186 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .272 xwOBA over 40 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (6% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 31 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

Next scheduled meeting: 2026-07-09 game page →