PITCHER MATCHUP

Bryce Elder vs Philadelphia Phillies

How the Philadelphia Phillies's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Bryce Elder's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Bryce Elder's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .312vs RHH xwOBA .331Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Sinker 35%Slider 29%Four-Seam Fastball 17%Changeup 11%Cutter 8%

How the Philadelphia Phillies's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Philadelphia Phillies's top-9-by-AB hitters against Bryce Elder, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .322
  1. 1 TT Trea Turner RHB .304
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Trea Turner
    • Sinker (35% usage) projects to .334 xwOBA over 352 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (29% usage) projects to .267 xwOBA over 309 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (17% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 504 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .276 xwOBA over 167 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (8% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 128 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 LA Luis Arraez LHB .294
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Luis Arraez
    • Sinker (35% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 390 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (29% usage) projects to .285 xwOBA over 219 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (17% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 719 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 157 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (8% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 152 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 KS Kyle Schwarber LHB .363
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Kyle Schwarber
    • Sinker (35% usage) projects to .422 xwOBA over 329 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (29% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 328 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (17% usage) projects to .363 xwOBA over 621 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .328 xwOBA over 201 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (8% usage) projects to .357 xwOBA over 152 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  4. 4 BH Bryce Harper LHB .360
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Bryce Harper
    • Sinker (35% usage) projects to .348 xwOBA over 275 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (29% usage) projects to .358 xwOBA over 293 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (17% usage) projects to .387 xwOBA over 465 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .339 xwOBA over 208 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (8% usage) projects to .390 xwOBA over 121 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  5. 5 AB Alec Bohm RHB .318
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Alec Bohm
    • Sinker (35% usage) projects to .333 xwOBA over 386 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (29% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 276 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (17% usage) projects to .332 xwOBA over 517 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 116 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (8% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 132 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 BS Bryson Stott LHB .328
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Bryson Stott
    • Sinker (35% usage) projects to .334 xwOBA over 267 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (29% usage) projects to .338 xwOBA over 196 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (17% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 583 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 198 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (8% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 116 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 BM Brandon Marsh LHB .316
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Brandon Marsh
    • Sinker (35% usage) projects to .356 xwOBA over 216 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (29% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 203 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (17% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 484 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .276 xwOBA over 130 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (8% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 103 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 JC Justin Crawford LHB .299
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Justin Crawford
    • Sinker (35% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 72 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (29% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 50 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (17% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 139 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 49 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (8% usage) projects to .279 xwOBA over 35 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  9. 9 JR J.T. Realmuto RHB .317
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. J.T. Realmuto
    • Sinker (35% usage) projects to .338 xwOBA over 284 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (29% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 217 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (17% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 433 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 131 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (8% usage) projects to .282 xwOBA over 107 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.