PITCHER MATCHUP

Bryce Elder vs Philadelphia Phillies

How the Philadelphia Phillies's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Bryce Elder's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Bryce Elder's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .312vs RHH xwOBA .331Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Sinker 35%Slider 29%Four-Seam Fastball 17%Changeup 11%Cutter 8%

How the Philadelphia Phillies's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Philadelphia Phillies's top-9-by-AB hitters against Bryce Elder, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .322
  1. 1 TT Trea Turner RHB .310
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Trea Turner
    • Sinker (35% usage) projects to .338 xwOBA over 344 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (29% usage) projects to .273 xwOBA over 297 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (17% usage) projects to .326 xwOBA over 473 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .280 xwOBA over 149 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (8% usage) projects to .329 xwOBA over 119 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 LA Luis Arraez LHB .291
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Luis Arraez
    • Sinker (35% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 375 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (29% usage) projects to .282 xwOBA over 208 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (17% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 691 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .286 xwOBA over 155 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (8% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 141 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 KS Kyle Schwarber LHB .361
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Kyle Schwarber
    • Sinker (35% usage) projects to .423 xwOBA over 302 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (29% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 315 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (17% usage) projects to .366 xwOBA over 596 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .328 xwOBA over 196 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (8% usage) projects to .347 xwOBA over 143 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  4. 4 AB Alec Bohm RHB .312
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Alec Bohm
    • Sinker (35% usage) projects to .331 xwOBA over 364 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (29% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 262 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (17% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 484 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 107 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (8% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 123 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 BH Bryce Harper LHB .359
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Bryce Harper
    • Sinker (35% usage) projects to .353 xwOBA over 262 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (29% usage) projects to .345 xwOBA over 277 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (17% usage) projects to .386 xwOBA over 443 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .351 xwOBA over 193 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (8% usage) projects to .394 xwOBA over 113 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  6. 6 BM Brandon Marsh LHB .317
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Brandon Marsh
    • Sinker (35% usage) projects to .352 xwOBA over 209 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (29% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 199 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (17% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 464 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .282 xwOBA over 122 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (8% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 98 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 BS Bryson Stott LHB .331
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Bryson Stott
    • Sinker (35% usage) projects to .337 xwOBA over 252 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (29% usage) projects to .343 xwOBA over 185 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (17% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 556 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 189 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (8% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 108 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 JC Justin Crawford LHB .299
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Justin Crawford
    • Sinker (35% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 65 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (29% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 44 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (17% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 123 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 41 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (8% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 26 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 JR J.T. Realmuto RHB .319
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. J.T. Realmuto
    • Sinker (35% usage) projects to .339 xwOBA over 270 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (29% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 207 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (17% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 409 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 123 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (8% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 96 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

Next scheduled meeting: 2026-09-07 game page →