PITCHER MATCHUP

Bryce Elder vs San Diego Padres

How the San Diego Padres's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Bryce Elder's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Bryce Elder's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .312vs RHH xwOBA .331Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Sinker 35%Slider 29%Four-Seam Fastball 17%Changeup 11%Cutter 8%

How the San Diego Padres's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the San Diego Padres's top-9-by-AB hitters against Bryce Elder, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .314
  1. 1 FT Fernando Tatis Jr. RHB .347
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Fernando Tatis Jr.
    • Sinker (35% usage) projects to .358 xwOBA over 395 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (29% usage) projects to .328 xwOBA over 264 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (17% usage) projects to .382 xwOBA over 447 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 167 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (8% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 116 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 JM Jackson Merrill LHB .336
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jackson Merrill
    • Sinker (35% usage) projects to .365 xwOBA over 225 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (29% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 198 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (17% usage) projects to .338 xwOBA over 508 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .287 xwOBA over 188 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (8% usage) projects to .337 xwOBA over 119 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 MM Manny Machado RHB .335
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Manny Machado
    • Sinker (35% usage) projects to .349 xwOBA over 381 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (29% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 283 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (17% usage) projects to .374 xwOBA over 506 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 181 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (8% usage) projects to .367 xwOBA over 125 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  4. 4 XB Xander Bogaerts RHB .316
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Xander Bogaerts
    • Sinker (35% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 349 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (29% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 184 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (17% usage) projects to .342 xwOBA over 421 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .278 xwOBA over 137 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (8% usage) projects to .360 xwOBA over 106 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  5. 5 TF Ty France RHB .310
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Ty France
    • Sinker (35% usage) projects to .337 xwOBA over 292 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (29% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 208 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (17% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 412 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .271 xwOBA over 129 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (8% usage) projects to .276 xwOBA over 105 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  6. 6 JC Jake Cronenworth LHB .298
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jake Cronenworth
    • Sinker (35% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 266 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (29% usage) projects to .276 xwOBA over 157 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (17% usage) projects to .337 xwOBA over 520 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .230 xwOBA over 137 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (8% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 119 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 FF Freddy Fermin RHB .284
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Freddy Fermin
    • Sinker (35% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 208 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (29% usage) projects to .252 xwOBA over 136 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (17% usage) projects to .276 xwOBA over 275 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 71 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (8% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 74 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 LC Luis Campusano RHB .309
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Luis Campusano
    • Sinker (35% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 98 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (29% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 69 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (17% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 143 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 39 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (8% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 33 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 SS Sung-Mun Song LHB .288
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Sung-Mun Song
    • Sinker (35% usage) projects to .284 xwOBA over 18 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (29% usage) projects to .283 xwOBA over 14 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (17% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 47 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 18 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (8% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 15 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.