PITCHER MATCHUP

Bryce Elder vs San Diego Padres

How the San Diego Padres's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Bryce Elder's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Bryce Elder's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .312vs RHH xwOBA .331Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Sinker 35%Slider 29%Four-Seam Fastball 17%Changeup 11%Cutter 8%

How the San Diego Padres's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the San Diego Padres's top-9-by-AB hitters against Bryce Elder, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .316
  1. 1 FT Fernando Tatis Jr. RHB .344
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Fernando Tatis Jr.
    • Sinker (35% usage) projects to .355 xwOBA over 421 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (29% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 281 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (17% usage) projects to .390 xwOBA over 477 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 181 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (8% usage) projects to .334 xwOBA over 122 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 JM Jackson Merrill LHB .336
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jackson Merrill
    • Sinker (35% usage) projects to .360 xwOBA over 239 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (29% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 210 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (17% usage) projects to .341 xwOBA over 539 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .287 xwOBA over 203 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (8% usage) projects to .349 xwOBA over 127 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  3. 3 MM Manny Machado RHB .336
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Manny Machado
    • Sinker (35% usage) projects to .357 xwOBA over 402 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (29% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 299 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (17% usage) projects to .370 xwOBA over 533 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 198 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (8% usage) projects to .374 xwOBA over 135 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  4. 4 XB Xander Bogaerts RHB .316
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Xander Bogaerts
    • Sinker (35% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 379 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (29% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 192 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (17% usage) projects to .345 xwOBA over 451 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .272 xwOBA over 148 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (8% usage) projects to .358 xwOBA over 109 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  5. 5 TF Ty France RHB .309
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Ty France
    • Sinker (35% usage) projects to .335 xwOBA over 310 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (29% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 220 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (17% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 450 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .268 xwOBA over 137 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (8% usage) projects to .273 xwOBA over 109 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  6. 6 JC Jake Cronenworth LHB .298
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jake Cronenworth
    • Sinker (35% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 276 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (29% usage) projects to .282 xwOBA over 177 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (17% usage) projects to .334 xwOBA over 548 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .237 xwOBA over 152 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (8% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 126 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 GS Gavin Sheets LHB .323
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Gavin Sheets
    • Sinker (35% usage) projects to .335 xwOBA over 207 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (29% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 181 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (17% usage) projects to .340 xwOBA over 458 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .275 xwOBA over 187 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (8% usage) projects to .326 xwOBA over 102 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 MA Miguel Andujar RHB .303
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Miguel Andujar
    • Sinker (35% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 204 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (29% usage) projects to .278 xwOBA over 148 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (17% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 216 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 87 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (8% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 69 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 FF Freddy Fermin RHB .283
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Freddy Fermin
    • Sinker (35% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 212 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (29% usage) projects to .249 xwOBA over 141 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (17% usage) projects to .284 xwOBA over 287 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 72 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (8% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 76 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.