PITCHER MATCHUP

Bryce Elder vs San Diego Padres

How the San Diego Padres's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Bryce Elder's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Bryce Elder's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .318vs RHH xwOBA .327Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Sinker 36%Slider 32%Four-Seam Fastball 17%Changeup 10%Cutter 6%

How the San Diego Padres's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the San Diego Padres's top-9-by-AB hitters against Bryce Elder, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .317
  1. 1 FT Fernando Tatis Jr. RHB .340
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Fernando Tatis Jr.
    • Sinker (36% usage) projects to .366 xwOBA over 367 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (32% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 245 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (17% usage) projects to .373 xwOBA over 409 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 150 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (6% usage) projects to .325 xwOBA over 96 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 JM Jackson Merrill LHB .337
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jackson Merrill
    • Sinker (36% usage) projects to .370 xwOBA over 213 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (32% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 182 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (17% usage) projects to .328 xwOBA over 452 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 175 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (6% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 105 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 MM Manny Machado RHB .333
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Manny Machado
    • Sinker (36% usage) projects to .340 xwOBA over 355 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (32% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 264 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (17% usage) projects to .377 xwOBA over 467 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 165 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (6% usage) projects to .377 xwOBA over 108 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  4. 4 XB Xander Bogaerts RHB .317
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Xander Bogaerts
    • Sinker (36% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 313 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (32% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 169 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (17% usage) projects to .334 xwOBA over 391 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 126 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (6% usage) projects to .373 xwOBA over 92 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  5. 5 GS Gavin Sheets LHB .325
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Gavin Sheets
    • Sinker (36% usage) projects to .340 xwOBA over 196 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (32% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 177 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (17% usage) projects to .330 xwOBA over 436 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .285 xwOBA over 172 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (6% usage) projects to .328 xwOBA over 99 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 TF Ty France RHB .306
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Ty France
    • Sinker (36% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 266 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (32% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 195 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (17% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 352 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .270 xwOBA over 119 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (6% usage) projects to .267 xwOBA over 92 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  7. 7 LR Luis Rengifo SH .304
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Luis Rengifo
    • Sinker (36% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 110 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (32% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 150 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (17% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 325 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 144 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (6% usage) projects to .258 xwOBA over 116 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  8. 8 JC Jake Cronenworth LHB .305
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jake Cronenworth
    • Sinker (36% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 239 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (32% usage) projects to .286 xwOBA over 145 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (17% usage) projects to .333 xwOBA over 478 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .250 xwOBA over 123 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (6% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 107 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 FF Freddy Fermin RHB .283
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Freddy Fermin
    • Sinker (36% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 197 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (32% usage) projects to .255 xwOBA over 124 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (17% usage) projects to .274 xwOBA over 254 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 67 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (6% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 70 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.