PITCHER MATCHUP

Bryce Elder vs Baltimore Orioles

How the Baltimore Orioles's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Bryce Elder's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Bryce Elder's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .315vs RHH xwOBA .330Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Sinker 36%Slider 31%Four-Seam Fastball 17%Changeup 10%Cutter 6%

How the Baltimore Orioles's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Baltimore Orioles's top-9-by-AB hitters against Bryce Elder, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .320
  1. 1 GH Gunnar Henderson LHB .315
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Gunnar Henderson
    • Sinker (36% usage) projects to .350 xwOBA over 312 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (31% usage) projects to .278 xwOBA over 232 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (17% usage) projects to .326 xwOBA over 519 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .277 xwOBA over 232 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (6% usage) projects to .327 xwOBA over 143 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 PA Pete Alonso RHB .361
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Pete Alonso
    • Sinker (36% usage) projects to .378 xwOBA over 417 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (31% usage) projects to .338 xwOBA over 292 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (17% usage) projects to .386 xwOBA over 484 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 157 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (6% usage) projects to .382 xwOBA over 119 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  3. 3 TW Taylor Ward RHB .327
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Taylor Ward
    • Sinker (36% usage) projects to .355 xwOBA over 362 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (31% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 297 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (17% usage) projects to .364 xwOBA over 530 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .272 xwOBA over 137 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (6% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 138 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 LT Leody Taveras SH .308
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Leody Taveras
    • Sinker (36% usage) projects to .352 xwOBA over 128 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (31% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 88 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (17% usage) projects to .250 xwOBA over 359 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .257 xwOBA over 152 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (6% usage) projects to .344 xwOBA over 67 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  5. 5 CM Coby Mayo RHB .313
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Coby Mayo
    • Sinker (36% usage) projects to .367 xwOBA over 94 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (31% usage) projects to .267 xwOBA over 109 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (17% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 171 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .277 xwOBA over 57 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (6% usage) projects to .278 xwOBA over 44 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  6. 6 CC Colton Cowser LHB .322
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Colton Cowser
    • Sinker (36% usage) projects to .343 xwOBA over 154 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (31% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 146 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (17% usage) projects to .330 xwOBA over 357 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .233 xwOBA over 186 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (6% usage) projects to .379 xwOBA over 63 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  7. 7 JJ Jeremiah Jackson RHB .293
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jeremiah Jackson
    • Sinker (36% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 67 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (31% usage) projects to .270 xwOBA over 81 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (17% usage) projects to .286 xwOBA over 88 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 39 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (6% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 30 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 TO Tyler O'Neill RHB .325
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Tyler O'Neill
    • Sinker (36% usage) projects to .346 xwOBA over 163 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (31% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 123 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (17% usage) projects to .343 xwOBA over 264 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 95 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (6% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 61 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 DB Dylan Beavers LHB .317
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Dylan Beavers
    • Sinker (36% usage) projects to .341 xwOBA over 42 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (31% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 32 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (17% usage) projects to .327 xwOBA over 112 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 39 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (6% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 20 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

Next scheduled meeting: 2026-07-25 game page →