PITCHER MATCHUP

Bryce Elder vs Baltimore Orioles

How the Baltimore Orioles's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Bryce Elder's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Bryce Elder's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .312vs RHH xwOBA .331Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Sinker 35%Slider 29%Four-Seam Fastball 17%Changeup 11%Cutter 8%

How the Baltimore Orioles's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Baltimore Orioles's top-9-by-AB hitters against Bryce Elder, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .317
  1. 1 GH Gunnar Henderson LHB .317
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Gunnar Henderson
    • Sinker (35% usage) projects to .347 xwOBA over 341 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (29% usage) projects to .281 xwOBA over 251 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (17% usage) projects to .332 xwOBA over 553 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .280 xwOBA over 248 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (8% usage) projects to .337 xwOBA over 154 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 PA Pete Alonso RHB .366
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Pete Alonso
    • Sinker (35% usage) projects to .381 xwOBA over 441 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (29% usage) projects to .342 xwOBA over 313 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (17% usage) projects to .399 xwOBA over 526 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 179 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (8% usage) projects to .394 xwOBA over 130 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  3. 3 LT Leody Taveras SH .299
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Leody Taveras
    • Sinker (35% usage) projects to .342 xwOBA over 138 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (29% usage) projects to .284 xwOBA over 102 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (17% usage) projects to .254 xwOBA over 394 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .252 xwOBA over 172 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (8% usage) projects to .336 xwOBA over 77 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 CM Coby Mayo RHB .317
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Coby Mayo
    • Sinker (35% usage) projects to .358 xwOBA over 108 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (29% usage) projects to .266 xwOBA over 126 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (17% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 201 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .326 xwOBA over 72 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (8% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 52 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 SB Samuel Basallo LHB .305
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Samuel Basallo
    • Sinker (35% usage) projects to .329 xwOBA over 59 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (29% usage) projects to .274 xwOBA over 67 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (17% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 139 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .272 xwOBA over 76 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (8% usage) projects to .331 xwOBA over 29 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 CC Colton Cowser LHB .323
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Colton Cowser
    • Sinker (35% usage) projects to .336 xwOBA over 163 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (29% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 157 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (17% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 384 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .239 xwOBA over 196 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (8% usage) projects to .399 xwOBA over 70 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  7. 7 JH Jackson Holliday LHB .310
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jackson Holliday
    • Sinker (35% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 189 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (29% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 145 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (17% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 351 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .265 xwOBA over 155 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (8% usage) projects to .278 xwOBA over 83 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  8. 8 DB Dylan Beavers LHB .311
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Dylan Beavers
    • Sinker (35% usage) projects to .329 xwOBA over 57 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (29% usage) projects to .287 xwOBA over 47 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (17% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 138 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 55 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (8% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 31 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 BA Blaze Alexander RHB .309
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Blaze Alexander
    • Sinker (35% usage) projects to .329 xwOBA over 142 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (29% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 120 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (17% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 199 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 66 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (8% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 51 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.