PITCHER MATCHUP

Bryce Elder vs New York Mets

How the New York Mets's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Bryce Elder's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Bryce Elder's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .315vs RHH xwOBA .330Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Sinker 36%Slider 31%Four-Seam Fastball 17%Changeup 10%Cutter 6%

How the New York Mets's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the New York Mets's top-9-by-AB hitters against Bryce Elder, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .317
  1. 1 BB Bo Bichette RHB .326
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Bo Bichette
    • Sinker (36% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 299 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (31% usage) projects to .340 xwOBA over 265 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (17% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 325 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .329 xwOBA over 125 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (6% usage) projects to .329 xwOBA over 113 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 CB Carson Benge LHB .331
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Carson Benge
    • Sinker (36% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 70 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (31% usage) projects to .332 xwOBA over 50 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (17% usage) projects to .348 xwOBA over 139 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 41 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (6% usage) projects to .354 xwOBA over 31 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  3. 3 MS Marcus Semien RHB .299
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Marcus Semien
    • Sinker (36% usage) projects to .333 xwOBA over 311 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (31% usage) projects to .245 xwOBA over 270 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (17% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 490 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 131 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (6% usage) projects to .337 xwOBA over 124 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 BB Brett Baty LHB .320
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Brett Baty
    • Sinker (36% usage) projects to .337 xwOBA over 123 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (31% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 106 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (17% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 339 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 112 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (6% usage) projects to .331 xwOBA over 66 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 AE A.J. Ewing LHB .308
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. A.J. Ewing
    • Sinker (36% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 45 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (31% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 30 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (17% usage) projects to .333 xwOBA over 73 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 32 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (6% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 17 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 FA Francisco Alvarez RHB .315
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Francisco Alvarez
    • Sinker (36% usage) projects to .326 xwOBA over 178 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (31% usage) projects to .277 xwOBA over 155 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (17% usage) projects to .350 xwOBA over 227 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .336 xwOBA over 64 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (6% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 53 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 FL Francisco Lindor SH .332
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Francisco Lindor
    • Sinker (36% usage) projects to .368 xwOBA over 194 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (31% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 196 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (17% usage) projects to .350 xwOBA over 555 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .284 xwOBA over 215 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (6% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 141 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 LT Luis Torrens RHB .312
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Luis Torrens
    • Sinker (36% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 114 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (31% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 111 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (17% usage) projects to .328 xwOBA over 146 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 51 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (6% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 47 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 JY Jared Young LHB .311
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jared Young
    • Sinker (36% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 27 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (31% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 26 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (17% usage) projects to .336 xwOBA over 66 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .334 xwOBA over 21 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (6% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 25 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.