PITCHER MATCHUP

Bryce Elder vs New York Mets

How the New York Mets's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Bryce Elder's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Bryce Elder's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .312vs RHH xwOBA .331Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Sinker 35%Slider 29%Four-Seam Fastball 17%Changeup 11%Cutter 8%

How the New York Mets's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the New York Mets's top-9-by-AB hitters against Bryce Elder, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .326
  1. 1 BB Bo Bichette RHB .327
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Bo Bichette
    • Sinker (35% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 342 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (29% usage) projects to .350 xwOBA over 284 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (17% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 356 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .327 xwOBA over 140 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (8% usage) projects to .329 xwOBA over 123 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 CB Carson Benge LHB .334
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Carson Benge
    • Sinker (35% usage) projects to .342 xwOBA over 91 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (29% usage) projects to .334 xwOBA over 67 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (17% usage) projects to .342 xwOBA over 184 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 65 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (8% usage) projects to .339 xwOBA over 42 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 MS Marcus Semien RHB .300
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Marcus Semien
    • Sinker (35% usage) projects to .331 xwOBA over 341 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (29% usage) projects to .245 xwOBA over 293 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (17% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 521 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 142 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (8% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 136 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 AE A.J. Ewing LHB .317
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. A.J. Ewing
    • Sinker (35% usage) projects to .328 xwOBA over 85 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (29% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 52 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (17% usage) projects to .346 xwOBA over 109 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 54 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (8% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 25 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 BB Brett Baty LHB .322
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Brett Baty
    • Sinker (35% usage) projects to .343 xwOBA over 127 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (29% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 120 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (17% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 363 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 120 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (8% usage) projects to .330 xwOBA over 71 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 FL Francisco Lindor SH .329
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Francisco Lindor
    • Sinker (35% usage) projects to .361 xwOBA over 210 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (29% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 222 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (17% usage) projects to .346 xwOBA over 614 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .280 xwOBA over 243 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (8% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 152 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 JS Juan Soto LHB .385
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Juan Soto
    • Sinker (35% usage) projects to .395 xwOBA over 350 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (29% usage) projects to .356 xwOBA over 255 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (17% usage) projects to .443 xwOBA over 472 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .345 xwOBA over 207 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (8% usage) projects to .381 xwOBA over 148 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  8. 8 FA Francisco Alvarez RHB .310
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Francisco Alvarez
    • Sinker (35% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 197 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (29% usage) projects to .276 xwOBA over 173 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (17% usage) projects to .332 xwOBA over 255 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .333 xwOBA over 75 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (8% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 60 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 JY Jared Young LHB .309
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jared Young
    • Sinker (35% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 45 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (29% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 46 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (17% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 101 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .328 xwOBA over 37 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (8% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 38 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.