PITCHER MATCHUP

Bryce Elder vs New York Mets

How the New York Mets's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Bryce Elder's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Bryce Elder's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .310vs RHH xwOBA .321Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Sinker 36%Slider 32%Four-Seam Fastball 17%Changeup 10%Cutter 5%

How the New York Mets's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the New York Mets's top-9-by-AB hitters against Bryce Elder, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .323
  1. 1 BB Bo Bichette RHB .325
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Bo Bichette
    • Sinker (36% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 270 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (32% usage) projects to .343 xwOBA over 245 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (17% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 295 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .327 xwOBA over 106 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (5% usage) projects to .330 xwOBA over 106 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 MS Marcus Semien RHB .300
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Marcus Semien
    • Sinker (36% usage) projects to .332 xwOBA over 293 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (32% usage) projects to .249 xwOBA over 262 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (17% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 481 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 130 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (5% usage) projects to .343 xwOBA over 119 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  3. 3 CB Carson Benge LHB .316
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Carson Benge
    • Sinker (36% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 35 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (32% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 32 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (17% usage) projects to .336 xwOBA over 96 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 25 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (5% usage) projects to .361 xwOBA over 24 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  4. 4 BB Brett Baty LHB .321
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Brett Baty
    • Sinker (36% usage) projects to .344 xwOBA over 102 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (32% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 98 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (17% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 298 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 95 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (5% usage) projects to .335 xwOBA over 58 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 JS Juan Soto LHB .376
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Juan Soto
    • Sinker (36% usage) projects to .379 xwOBA over 314 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (32% usage) projects to .343 xwOBA over 237 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (17% usage) projects to .447 xwOBA over 432 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .351 xwOBA over 187 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (5% usage) projects to .382 xwOBA over 135 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  6. 6 MV Mark Vientos RHB .333
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Mark Vientos
    • Sinker (36% usage) projects to .327 xwOBA over 217 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (32% usage) projects to .350 xwOBA over 188 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (17% usage) projects to .329 xwOBA over 280 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 114 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (5% usage) projects to .327 xwOBA over 81 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 FA Francisco Alvarez RHB .308
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Francisco Alvarez
    • Sinker (36% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 144 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (32% usage) projects to .277 xwOBA over 143 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (17% usage) projects to .345 xwOBA over 196 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .355 xwOBA over 55 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (5% usage) projects to .329 xwOBA over 47 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 LT Luis Torrens RHB .320
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Luis Torrens
    • Sinker (36% usage) projects to .336 xwOBA over 99 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (32% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 103 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (17% usage) projects to .327 xwOBA over 135 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 42 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (5% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 40 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 AE A.J. Ewing LHB .310
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. A.J. Ewing
    • Sinker (36% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 17 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (32% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 19 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (17% usage) projects to .345 xwOBA over 35 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 12 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (5% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 4 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.