PITCHER MATCHUP

Bryce Elder vs New York Mets

How the New York Mets's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Bryce Elder's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Bryce Elder's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .312vs RHH xwOBA .331Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Sinker 35%Slider 29%Four-Seam Fastball 17%Changeup 11%Cutter 8%

How the New York Mets's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the New York Mets's top-9-by-AB hitters against Bryce Elder, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .326
  1. 1 BB Bo Bichette RHB .327
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Bo Bichette
    • Sinker (35% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 352 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (29% usage) projects to .355 xwOBA over 291 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (17% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 371 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .326 xwOBA over 146 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (8% usage) projects to .330 xwOBA over 128 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 CB Carson Benge LHB .340
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Carson Benge
    • Sinker (35% usage) projects to .359 xwOBA over 105 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (29% usage) projects to .334 xwOBA over 75 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (17% usage) projects to .341 xwOBA over 198 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 72 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (8% usage) projects to .337 xwOBA over 45 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 MS Marcus Semien RHB .298
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Marcus Semien
    • Sinker (35% usage) projects to .329 xwOBA over 351 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (29% usage) projects to .244 xwOBA over 298 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (17% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 534 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 145 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (8% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 138 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 AE A.J. Ewing LHB .314
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. A.J. Ewing
    • Sinker (35% usage) projects to .325 xwOBA over 94 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (29% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 60 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (17% usage) projects to .348 xwOBA over 122 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .276 xwOBA over 60 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (8% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 27 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 BB Brett Baty LHB .323
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Brett Baty
    • Sinker (35% usage) projects to .345 xwOBA over 130 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (29% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 123 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (17% usage) projects to .328 xwOBA over 382 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 122 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (8% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 73 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 FL Francisco Lindor SH .330
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Francisco Lindor
    • Sinker (35% usage) projects to .364 xwOBA over 224 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (29% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 224 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (17% usage) projects to .345 xwOBA over 638 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .279 xwOBA over 250 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (8% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 154 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 JS Juan Soto LHB .382
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Juan Soto
    • Sinker (35% usage) projects to .390 xwOBA over 366 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (29% usage) projects to .356 xwOBA over 262 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (17% usage) projects to .435 xwOBA over 484 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .340 xwOBA over 217 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (8% usage) projects to .383 xwOBA over 149 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  8. 8 FA Francisco Alvarez RHB .307
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Francisco Alvarez
    • Sinker (35% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 204 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (29% usage) projects to .272 xwOBA over 178 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (17% usage) projects to .337 xwOBA over 262 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .326 xwOBA over 79 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (8% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 64 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 JY Jared Young LHB .312
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jared Young
    • Sinker (35% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 50 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (29% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 46 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (17% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 107 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .328 xwOBA over 38 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (8% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 38 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.