PITCHER MATCHUP

Bryce Elder vs Miami Marlins

How the Miami Marlins's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Bryce Elder's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Bryce Elder's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .313vs RHH xwOBA .333Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Sinker 36%Slider 31%Four-Seam Fastball 17%Changeup 10%Cutter 7%

How the Miami Marlins's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Miami Marlins's top-9-by-AB hitters against Bryce Elder, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .314
  1. 1 OL Otto Lopez RHB .333
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Otto Lopez
    • Sinker (36% usage) projects to .374 xwOBA over 300 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (31% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 250 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (17% usage) projects to .361 xwOBA over 348 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .246 xwOBA over 170 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (7% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 102 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 XE Xavier Edwards SH .312
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Xavier Edwards
    • Sinker (36% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 229 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (31% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 131 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (17% usage) projects to .343 xwOBA over 451 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .271 xwOBA over 187 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (7% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 113 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 JM Jakob Marsee LHB .302
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jakob Marsee
    • Sinker (36% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 102 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (31% usage) projects to .287 xwOBA over 72 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (17% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 229 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 68 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (7% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 57 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 LH Liam Hicks LHB .302
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Liam Hicks
    • Sinker (36% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 135 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (31% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 82 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (17% usage) projects to .344 xwOBA over 273 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .274 xwOBA over 94 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (7% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 57 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 KS Kyle Stowers LHB .323
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Kyle Stowers
    • Sinker (36% usage) projects to .353 xwOBA over 122 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (31% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 129 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (17% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 358 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .283 xwOBA over 138 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (7% usage) projects to .360 xwOBA over 74 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  6. 6 JS Javier Sanoja RHB .291
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Javier Sanoja
    • Sinker (36% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 119 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (31% usage) projects to .279 xwOBA over 112 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (17% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 197 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .285 xwOBA over 57 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (7% usage) projects to .285 xwOBA over 47 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 HH Heriberto Hernández RHB .334
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Heriberto Hernández
    • Sinker (36% usage) projects to .348 xwOBA over 112 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (31% usage) projects to .341 xwOBA over 81 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (17% usage) projects to .328 xwOBA over 163 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .286 xwOBA over 56 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (7% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 39 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 OC Owen Caissie LHB .307
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Owen Caissie
    • Sinker (36% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 36 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (31% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 40 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (17% usage) projects to .341 xwOBA over 75 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .277 xwOBA over 40 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (7% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 21 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 JM Joe Mack LHB .319
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Joe Mack
    • Sinker (36% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 32 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (31% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 25 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (17% usage) projects to .336 xwOBA over 51 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 28 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (7% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 18 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

Next scheduled meeting: 2026-08-05 game page →