PITCHER MATCHUP

Bryce Elder vs Miami Marlins

How the Miami Marlins's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Bryce Elder's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Bryce Elder's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .312vs RHH xwOBA .331Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Sinker 35%Slider 29%Four-Seam Fastball 17%Changeup 11%Cutter 8%

How the Miami Marlins's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Miami Marlins's top-9-by-AB hitters against Bryce Elder, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .315
  1. 1 OL Otto Lopez RHB .330
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Otto Lopez
    • Sinker (35% usage) projects to .376 xwOBA over 337 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (29% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 279 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (17% usage) projects to .351 xwOBA over 388 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .242 xwOBA over 195 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (8% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 118 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 XE Xavier Edwards SH .310
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Xavier Edwards
    • Sinker (35% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 252 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (29% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 143 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (17% usage) projects to .345 xwOBA over 477 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .269 xwOBA over 205 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (8% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 116 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 JM Jakob Marsee LHB .308
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jakob Marsee
    • Sinker (35% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 129 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (29% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 89 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (17% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 279 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 80 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (8% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 75 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 KS Kyle Stowers LHB .318
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Kyle Stowers
    • Sinker (35% usage) projects to .347 xwOBA over 133 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (29% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 142 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (17% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 400 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .265 xwOBA over 154 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (8% usage) projects to .339 xwOBA over 86 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 JS Javier Sanoja RHB .297
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Javier Sanoja
    • Sinker (35% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 157 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (29% usage) projects to .270 xwOBA over 137 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (17% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 221 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .274 xwOBA over 82 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (8% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 65 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 HH Heriberto Hernández RHB .327
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Heriberto Hernández
    • Sinker (35% usage) projects to .335 xwOBA over 156 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (29% usage) projects to .330 xwOBA over 101 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (17% usage) projects to .334 xwOBA over 206 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .278 xwOBA over 73 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (8% usage) projects to .328 xwOBA over 48 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 JM Joe Mack LHB .310
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Joe Mack
    • Sinker (35% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 42 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (29% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 37 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (17% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 73 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .258 xwOBA over 46 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (8% usage) projects to .333 xwOBA over 28 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 GC Griffin Conine LHB .336
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Griffin Conine
    • Sinker (35% usage) projects to .350 xwOBA over 49 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (29% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 66 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (17% usage) projects to .377 xwOBA over 109 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .270 xwOBA over 72 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (8% usage) projects to .334 xwOBA over 36 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 AR Agustín Ramírez RHB .297
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Agustín Ramírez
    • Sinker (35% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 196 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (29% usage) projects to .272 xwOBA over 124 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (17% usage) projects to .325 xwOBA over 195 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 68 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (8% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 49 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.