PITCHER MATCHUP

Bryce Elder vs Arizona Diamondbacks

How the Arizona Diamondbacks's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Bryce Elder's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Bryce Elder's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .312vs RHH xwOBA .331Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Sinker 35%Slider 31%Four-Seam Fastball 17%Changeup 10%Cutter 7%

How the Arizona Diamondbacks's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Arizona Diamondbacks's top-9-by-AB hitters against Bryce Elder, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .319
  1. 1 KM Ketel Marte SH .348
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Ketel Marte
    • Sinker (35% usage) projects to .382 xwOBA over 190 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (31% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 188 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (17% usage) projects to .359 xwOBA over 508 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .336 xwOBA over 285 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (7% usage) projects to .373 xwOBA over 123 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  2. 2 CC Corbin Carroll LHB .330
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Corbin Carroll
    • Sinker (35% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 283 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (31% usage) projects to .349 xwOBA over 262 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (17% usage) projects to .339 xwOBA over 603 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 176 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (7% usage) projects to .342 xwOBA over 108 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  3. 3 GP Geraldo Perdomo SH .320
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Geraldo Perdomo
    • Sinker (35% usage) projects to .326 xwOBA over 230 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (31% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 187 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (17% usage) projects to .345 xwOBA over 558 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 203 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (7% usage) projects to .366 xwOBA over 116 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  4. 4 NA Nolan Arenado RHB .304
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Nolan Arenado
    • Sinker (35% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 274 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (31% usage) projects to .276 xwOBA over 252 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (17% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 432 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .286 xwOBA over 134 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (7% usage) projects to .337 xwOBA over 89 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 IV Ildemaro Vargas SH .302
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Ildemaro Vargas
    • Sinker (35% usage) projects to .326 xwOBA over 111 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (31% usage) projects to .275 xwOBA over 88 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (17% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 270 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 120 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (7% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 44 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 GM Gabriel Moreno RHB .340
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Gabriel Moreno
    • Sinker (35% usage) projects to .372 xwOBA over 206 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (31% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 148 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (17% usage) projects to .342 xwOBA over 304 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 90 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (7% usage) projects to .359 xwOBA over 55 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  7. 7 LN Lars Nootbaar LHB .313
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Lars Nootbaar
    • Sinker (35% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 231 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (31% usage) projects to .275 xwOBA over 152 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (17% usage) projects to .351 xwOBA over 384 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 133 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (7% usage) projects to .357 xwOBA over 77 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  8. 8 RW Ryan Waldschmidt RHB .317
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Ryan Waldschmidt
    • Sinker (35% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 30 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (31% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 30 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (17% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 40 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 17 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (7% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 21 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 TT Tim Tawa RHB .294
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Tim Tawa
    • Sinker (35% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 71 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (31% usage) projects to .266 xwOBA over 76 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (17% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 102 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .283 xwOBA over 34 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (7% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 32 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

Next scheduled meeting: 2026-08-16 game page →