PITCHER MATCHUP

Bryce Elder vs Milwaukee Brewers

How the Milwaukee Brewers's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Bryce Elder's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Bryce Elder's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .310vs RHH xwOBA .321Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Sinker 36%Slider 32%Four-Seam Fastball 17%Changeup 10%Cutter 5%

How the Milwaukee Brewers's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Milwaukee Brewers's top-9-by-AB hitters against Bryce Elder, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .311
  1. 1 WC William Contreras RHB .316
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. William Contreras
    • Sinker (36% usage) projects to .341 xwOBA over 344 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (32% usage) projects to .285 xwOBA over 277 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (17% usage) projects to .333 xwOBA over 439 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 135 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (5% usage) projects to .325 xwOBA over 137 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 BT Brice Turang LHB .332
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Brice Turang
    • Sinker (36% usage) projects to .335 xwOBA over 239 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (32% usage) projects to .339 xwOBA over 218 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (17% usage) projects to .331 xwOBA over 474 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .269 xwOBA over 174 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (5% usage) projects to .404 xwOBA over 111 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  3. 3 JB Jake Bauers LHB .316
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jake Bauers
    • Sinker (36% usage) projects to .330 xwOBA over 113 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (32% usage) projects to .282 xwOBA over 105 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (17% usage) projects to .344 xwOBA over 246 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 84 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (5% usage) projects to .392 xwOBA over 53 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  4. 4 SF Sal Frelick LHB .303
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Sal Frelick
    • Sinker (36% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 251 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (32% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 149 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (17% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 489 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 105 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (5% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 123 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 GM Garrett Mitchell LHB .311
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Garrett Mitchell
    • Sinker (36% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 81 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (32% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 72 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (17% usage) projects to .331 xwOBA over 175 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .287 xwOBA over 46 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (5% usage) projects to .337 xwOBA over 38 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 DH David Hamilton LHB .297
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. David Hamilton
    • Sinker (36% usage) projects to .343 xwOBA over 107 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (32% usage) projects to .271 xwOBA over 76 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (17% usage) projects to .279 xwOBA over 245 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .247 xwOBA over 85 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (5% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 58 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 CY Christian Yelich LHB .316
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Christian Yelich
    • Sinker (36% usage) projects to .337 xwOBA over 189 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (32% usage) projects to .277 xwOBA over 156 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (17% usage) projects to .339 xwOBA over 330 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 85 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (5% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 125 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 JC Jackson Chourio RHB .311
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jackson Chourio
    • Sinker (36% usage) projects to .342 xwOBA over 257 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (32% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 215 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (17% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 358 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 105 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (5% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 100 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 JO Joey Ortiz RHB .298
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Joey Ortiz
    • Sinker (36% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 255 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (32% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 196 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (17% usage) projects to .287 xwOBA over 353 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 81 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (5% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 77 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

Next scheduled meeting: 2026-06-21 game page →