PITCHER MATCHUP

Bailey Ober vs New York Yankees

How the New York Yankees's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Bailey Ober's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Bailey Ober's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .319vs RHH xwOBA .322Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Four-Seam Fastball 34%Changeup 31%Slider 18%Sweeper 12%Sinker 3%Curveball 2%

How the New York Yankees's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the New York Yankees's top-9-by-AB hitters against Bailey Ober, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .313
  1. 1 BR Ben Rice LHB .358
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Ben Rice
    • Four-Seam Fastball (34% usage) projects to .413 xwOBA over 348 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (31% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 163 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (18% usage) projects to .344 xwOBA over 205 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (12% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 92 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (3% usage) projects to .402 xwOBA over 231 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (2% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 92 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 LG Luis García Jr. LHB .337
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Luis García Jr.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (34% usage) projects to .377 xwOBA over 356 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (31% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 236 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (18% usage) projects to .326 xwOBA over 208 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (12% usage) projects to .363 xwOBA over 92 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (3% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 251 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (2% usage) projects to .327 xwOBA over 163 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 CB Cody Bellinger LHB .314
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Cody Bellinger
    • Four-Seam Fastball (34% usage) projects to .338 xwOBA over 588 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (31% usage) projects to .282 xwOBA over 191 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (18% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 202 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (12% usage) projects to .286 xwOBA over 100 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (3% usage) projects to .386 xwOBA over 308 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (2% usage) projects to .372 xwOBA over 110 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  4. 4 JC Jazz Chisholm Jr. LHB .309
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jazz Chisholm Jr.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (34% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 532 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (31% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 197 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (18% usage) projects to .336 xwOBA over 219 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (12% usage) projects to .282 xwOBA over 121 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (3% usage) projects to .358 xwOBA over 237 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (2% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 118 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 TG Trent Grisham LHB .327
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Trent Grisham
    • Four-Seam Fastball (34% usage) projects to .373 xwOBA over 445 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (31% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 140 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (18% usage) projects to .275 xwOBA over 131 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sweeper (12% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 70 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (3% usage) projects to .358 xwOBA over 236 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (2% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 64 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 JC José Caballero RHB .279
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. José Caballero
    • Four-Seam Fastball (34% usage) projects to .263 xwOBA over 366 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (31% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 101 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (18% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 209 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (12% usage) projects to .259 xwOBA over 108 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (3% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 247 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (2% usage) projects to .275 xwOBA over 67 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  7. 7 HR Heliot Ramos RHB .298
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Heliot Ramos
    • Four-Seam Fastball (34% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 447 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (31% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 147 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (18% usage) projects to .287 xwOBA over 257 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (12% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 146 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (3% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 326 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (2% usage) projects to .345 xwOBA over 113 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  8. 8 PG Paul Goldschmidt RHB .312
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Paul Goldschmidt
    • Four-Seam Fastball (34% usage) projects to .332 xwOBA over 456 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (31% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 165 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (18% usage) projects to .281 xwOBA over 214 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (12% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 118 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (3% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 280 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (2% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 66 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 AW Austin Wells LHB .284
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Austin Wells
    • Four-Seam Fastball (34% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 372 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (31% usage) projects to .262 xwOBA over 175 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (18% usage) projects to .273 xwOBA over 179 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sweeper (12% usage) projects to .283 xwOBA over 78 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (3% usage) projects to .337 xwOBA over 178 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (2% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 75 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.