PITCHER MATCHUP

Bailey Ober vs New York Yankees

How the New York Yankees's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Bailey Ober's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Bailey Ober's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .316vs RHH xwOBA .321Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Four-Seam Fastball 34%Changeup 31%Slider 18%Sweeper 11%Sinker 3%Curveball 2%

How the New York Yankees's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the New York Yankees's top-9-by-AB hitters against Bailey Ober, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .319
  1. 1 BR Ben Rice LHB .356
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Ben Rice
    • Four-Seam Fastball (34% usage) projects to .407 xwOBA over 328 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (31% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 153 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (18% usage) projects to .346 xwOBA over 199 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (11% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 89 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (3% usage) projects to .390 xwOBA over 215 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (2% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 87 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 LG Luis García Jr. LHB .341
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Luis García Jr.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (34% usage) projects to .384 xwOBA over 346 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (31% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 220 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (18% usage) projects to .328 xwOBA over 201 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (11% usage) projects to .360 xwOBA over 89 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (3% usage) projects to .327 xwOBA over 242 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (2% usage) projects to .330 xwOBA over 161 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 CB Cody Bellinger LHB .313
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Cody Bellinger
    • Four-Seam Fastball (34% usage) projects to .338 xwOBA over 570 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (31% usage) projects to .277 xwOBA over 183 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (18% usage) projects to .325 xwOBA over 198 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (11% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 96 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (3% usage) projects to .384 xwOBA over 295 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (2% usage) projects to .375 xwOBA over 104 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  4. 4 JC José Caballero RHB .281
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. José Caballero
    • Four-Seam Fastball (34% usage) projects to .264 xwOBA over 357 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (31% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 100 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (18% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 205 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (11% usage) projects to .262 xwOBA over 104 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (3% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 241 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (2% usage) projects to .271 xwOBA over 63 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  5. 5 HR Heliot Ramos RHB .296
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Heliot Ramos
    • Four-Seam Fastball (34% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 427 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (31% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 144 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (18% usage) projects to .283 xwOBA over 254 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (11% usage) projects to .277 xwOBA over 143 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (3% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 315 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (2% usage) projects to .358 xwOBA over 111 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  6. 6 PG Paul Goldschmidt RHB .313
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Paul Goldschmidt
    • Four-Seam Fastball (34% usage) projects to .337 xwOBA over 450 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (31% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 162 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (18% usage) projects to .283 xwOBA over 213 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (11% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 117 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (3% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 276 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (2% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 65 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 AW Austin Wells LHB .284
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Austin Wells
    • Four-Seam Fastball (34% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 359 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (31% usage) projects to .261 xwOBA over 164 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (18% usage) projects to .271 xwOBA over 177 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sweeper (11% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 76 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (3% usage) projects to .335 xwOBA over 170 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (2% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 73 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 RM Ryan McMahon LHB .308
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Ryan McMahon
    • Four-Seam Fastball (34% usage) projects to .333 xwOBA over 503 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (31% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 169 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (18% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 203 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (11% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 88 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (3% usage) projects to .325 xwOBA over 203 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (2% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 127 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 AJ Aaron Judge RHB .378
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Aaron Judge
    • Four-Seam Fastball (34% usage) projects to .430 xwOBA over 414 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (31% usage) projects to .351 xwOBA over 169 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (18% usage) projects to .331 xwOBA over 257 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (11% usage) projects to .348 xwOBA over 151 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (3% usage) projects to .488 xwOBA over 285 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (2% usage) projects to .369 xwOBA over 82 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

Next scheduled meeting: 2026-09-15 game page →