PITCHER MATCHUP

Bailey Ober vs Chicago White Sox

How the Chicago White Sox's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Bailey Ober's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Bailey Ober's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .319vs RHH xwOBA .323Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Four-Seam Fastball 35%Changeup 31%Slider 18%Sweeper 11%Sinker 3%Curveball 2%

How the Chicago White Sox's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Chicago White Sox's top-9-by-AB hitters against Bailey Ober, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .305
  1. 1 MV Miguel Vargas RHB .313
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Miguel Vargas
    • Four-Seam Fastball (35% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 457 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (31% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 110 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (18% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 180 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (11% usage) projects to .335 xwOBA over 98 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (3% usage) projects to .382 xwOBA over 287 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (2% usage) projects to .273 xwOBA over 71 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  2. 2 CM Chase Meidroth RHB .291
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Chase Meidroth
    • Four-Seam Fastball (35% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 311 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (31% usage) projects to .276 xwOBA over 107 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (18% usage) projects to .282 xwOBA over 141 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (11% usage) projects to .254 xwOBA over 71 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (3% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 223 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (2% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 34 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 CM Colson Montgomery LHB .284
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Colson Montgomery
    • Four-Seam Fastball (35% usage) projects to .263 xwOBA over 265 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (31% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 87 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (18% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 96 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (11% usage) projects to .253 xwOBA over 57 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (3% usage) projects to .372 xwOBA over 122 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (2% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 36 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 SA Sam Antonacci LHB .309
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Sam Antonacci
    • Four-Seam Fastball (35% usage) projects to .334 xwOBA over 136 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (31% usage) projects to .281 xwOBA over 46 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (18% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 46 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (11% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 25 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (3% usage) projects to .338 xwOBA over 93 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (2% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 14 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 TP Tristan Peters LHB .309
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Tristan Peters
    • Four-Seam Fastball (35% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 125 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (31% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 39 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (18% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 45 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (11% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 14 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (3% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 71 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (2% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 28 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 MM Munetaka Murakami LHB .330
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Munetaka Murakami
    • Four-Seam Fastball (35% usage) projects to .365 xwOBA over 132 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (31% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 36 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (18% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 68 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (11% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 39 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (3% usage) projects to .330 xwOBA over 54 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (2% usage) projects to .343 xwOBA over 25 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  7. 7 BM Braden Montgomery SH .313
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Braden Montgomery
    • Four-Seam Fastball (35% usage) projects to .354 xwOBA over 67 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (31% usage) projects to .276 xwOBA over 43 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (18% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 25 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (11% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 10 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (3% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 32 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (2% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 17 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 RG Randal Grichuk RHB .310
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Randal Grichuk
    • Four-Seam Fastball (35% usage) projects to .326 xwOBA over 244 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (31% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 121 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (18% usage) projects to .280 xwOBA over 132 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (11% usage) projects to .326 xwOBA over 47 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (3% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 114 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (2% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 32 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 LA Luisangel Acuña RHB .288
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Luisangel Acuña
    • Four-Seam Fastball (35% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 112 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (31% usage) projects to .275 xwOBA over 54 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (18% usage) projects to .257 xwOBA over 72 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sweeper (11% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 28 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (3% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 86 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (2% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 22 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

Next scheduled meeting: 2026-08-29 game page →