PITCHER MATCHUP

Bailey Ober vs Kansas City Royals

How the Kansas City Royals's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Bailey Ober's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Bailey Ober's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .316vs RHH xwOBA .321Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Four-Seam Fastball 34%Changeup 31%Slider 18%Sweeper 11%Sinker 3%Curveball 2%

How the Kansas City Royals's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Kansas City Royals's top-9-by-AB hitters against Bailey Ober, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .312
  1. 1 SP Salvador Perez RHB .309
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Salvador Perez
    • Four-Seam Fastball (34% usage) projects to .355 xwOBA over 475 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (31% usage) projects to .267 xwOBA over 181 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (18% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 293 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (11% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 215 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (3% usage) projects to .364 xwOBA over 266 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (2% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 120 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 BW Bobby Witt Jr. RHB .352
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Bobby Witt Jr.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (34% usage) projects to .382 xwOBA over 502 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (31% usage) projects to .356 xwOBA over 199 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (18% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 323 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (11% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 183 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (3% usage) projects to .374 xwOBA over 323 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (2% usage) projects to .351 xwOBA over 102 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  3. 3 JC Jac Caglianone LHB .351
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jac Caglianone
    • Four-Seam Fastball (34% usage) projects to .359 xwOBA over 184 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (31% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 96 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (18% usage) projects to .417 xwOBA over 97 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (11% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 61 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (3% usage) projects to .341 xwOBA over 98 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (2% usage) projects to .328 xwOBA over 54 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 CJ Carter Jensen LHB .316
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Carter Jensen
    • Four-Seam Fastball (34% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 171 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (31% usage) projects to .336 xwOBA over 62 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (18% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 92 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (11% usage) projects to .282 xwOBA over 55 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (3% usage) projects to .348 xwOBA over 80 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (2% usage) projects to .330 xwOBA over 35 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 IC Isaac Collins SH .302
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Isaac Collins
    • Four-Seam Fastball (34% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 390 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (31% usage) projects to .262 xwOBA over 114 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (18% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 74 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (11% usage) projects to .341 xwOBA over 38 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (3% usage) projects to .333 xwOBA over 121 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (2% usage) projects to .280 xwOBA over 51 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 VP Vinnie Pasquantino LHB .318
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Vinnie Pasquantino
    • Four-Seam Fastball (34% usage) projects to .326 xwOBA over 580 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (31% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 213 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (18% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 162 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (11% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 91 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (3% usage) projects to .333 xwOBA over 234 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (2% usage) projects to .348 xwOBA over 96 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  7. 7 MM Michael Massey LHB .290
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Michael Massey
    • Four-Seam Fastball (34% usage) projects to .266 xwOBA over 361 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (31% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 162 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (18% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 104 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (11% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 60 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (3% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 124 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (2% usage) projects to .332 xwOBA over 42 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 NL Nick Loftin RHB .291
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Nick Loftin
    • Four-Seam Fastball (34% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 235 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (31% usage) projects to .271 xwOBA over 62 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (18% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 101 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (11% usage) projects to .271 xwOBA over 64 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (3% usage) projects to .270 xwOBA over 132 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (2% usage) projects to .331 xwOBA over 30 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 KI Kyle Isbel LHB .279
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Kyle Isbel
    • Four-Seam Fastball (34% usage) projects to .285 xwOBA over 355 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (31% usage) projects to .271 xwOBA over 139 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (18% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 109 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (11% usage) projects to .254 xwOBA over 71 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (3% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 153 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (2% usage) projects to .286 xwOBA over 81 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.