PITCHER MATCHUP

Bailey Ober vs Kansas City Royals

How the Kansas City Royals's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Bailey Ober's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Bailey Ober's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .311vs RHH xwOBA .321Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Four-Seam Fastball 35%Changeup 31%Slider 17%Sweeper 11%Sinker 3%Curveball 3%

How the Kansas City Royals's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Kansas City Royals's top-9-by-AB hitters against Bailey Ober, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .308
  1. 1 SP Salvador Perez RHB .303
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Salvador Perez
    • Four-Seam Fastball (35% usage) projects to .344 xwOBA over 435 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (31% usage) projects to .265 xwOBA over 167 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (17% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 271 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (11% usage) projects to .271 xwOBA over 202 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (3% usage) projects to .360 xwOBA over 256 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (3% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 106 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 JC Jac Caglianone LHB .344
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jac Caglianone
    • Four-Seam Fastball (35% usage) projects to .357 xwOBA over 152 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (31% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 82 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (17% usage) projects to .404 xwOBA over 80 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (11% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 57 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (3% usage) projects to .333 xwOBA over 81 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (3% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 42 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 CJ Carter Jensen LHB .310
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Carter Jensen
    • Four-Seam Fastball (35% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 127 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (31% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 45 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (17% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 78 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (11% usage) projects to .282 xwOBA over 42 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (3% usage) projects to .341 xwOBA over 60 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (3% usage) projects to .337 xwOBA over 26 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 IC Isaac Collins SH .303
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Isaac Collins
    • Four-Seam Fastball (35% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 351 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (31% usage) projects to .260 xwOBA over 92 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (17% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 59 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (11% usage) projects to .334 xwOBA over 35 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (3% usage) projects to .331 xwOBA over 113 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (3% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 42 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 VP Vinnie Pasquantino LHB .315
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Vinnie Pasquantino
    • Four-Seam Fastball (35% usage) projects to .326 xwOBA over 549 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (31% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 202 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (17% usage) projects to .287 xwOBA over 155 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (11% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 84 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (3% usage) projects to .328 xwOBA over 224 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (3% usage) projects to .349 xwOBA over 90 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  6. 6 LT Lane Thomas RHB .304
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Lane Thomas
    • Four-Seam Fastball (35% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 287 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (31% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 97 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (17% usage) projects to .271 xwOBA over 139 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sweeper (11% usage) projects to .272 xwOBA over 75 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (3% usage) projects to .325 xwOBA over 211 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (3% usage) projects to .329 xwOBA over 49 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 MM Michael Massey LHB .288
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Michael Massey
    • Four-Seam Fastball (35% usage) projects to .263 xwOBA over 319 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (31% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 149 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (17% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 93 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (11% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 57 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (3% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 114 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (3% usage) projects to .330 xwOBA over 38 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 NL Nick Loftin RHB .299
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Nick Loftin
    • Four-Seam Fastball (35% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 191 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (31% usage) projects to .279 xwOBA over 52 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (17% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 86 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (11% usage) projects to .274 xwOBA over 47 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (3% usage) projects to .269 xwOBA over 107 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (3% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 22 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 SM Starling Marte RHB .310
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Starling Marte
    • Four-Seam Fastball (35% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 225 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (31% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 81 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (17% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 148 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (11% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 59 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (3% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 145 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (3% usage) projects to .325 xwOBA over 62 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

Next scheduled meeting: 2026-07-30 game page →