PITCHER MATCHUP

Bailey Ober vs San Diego Padres

How the San Diego Padres's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Bailey Ober's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Bailey Ober's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .320vs RHH xwOBA .321Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Four-Seam Fastball 35%Changeup 31%Slider 18%Sweeper 11%Sinker 3%Curveball 3%

How the San Diego Padres's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the San Diego Padres's top-9-by-AB hitters against Bailey Ober, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .311
  1. 1 FT Fernando Tatis Jr. RHB .342
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Fernando Tatis Jr.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (35% usage) projects to .387 xwOBA over 438 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (31% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 160 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (18% usage) projects to .349 xwOBA over 253 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (11% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 135 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (3% usage) projects to .366 xwOBA over 381 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (3% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 60 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 JM Jackson Merrill LHB .325
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jackson Merrill
    • Four-Seam Fastball (35% usage) projects to .341 xwOBA over 487 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (31% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 184 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (18% usage) projects to .326 xwOBA over 193 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (11% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 104 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (3% usage) projects to .371 xwOBA over 218 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (3% usage) projects to .337 xwOBA over 108 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 MM Manny Machado RHB .324
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Manny Machado
    • Four-Seam Fastball (35% usage) projects to .379 xwOBA over 496 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (31% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 173 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (18% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 277 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (11% usage) projects to .264 xwOBA over 166 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (3% usage) projects to .352 xwOBA over 369 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (3% usage) projects to .278 xwOBA over 81 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  4. 4 XB Xander Bogaerts RHB .312
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Xander Bogaerts
    • Four-Seam Fastball (35% usage) projects to .347 xwOBA over 410 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (31% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 134 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (18% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 177 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (11% usage) projects to .275 xwOBA over 154 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (3% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 337 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (3% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 75 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 GS Gavin Sheets LHB .327
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Gavin Sheets
    • Four-Seam Fastball (35% usage) projects to .341 xwOBA over 449 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (31% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 183 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (18% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 181 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (11% usage) projects to .326 xwOBA over 91 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (3% usage) projects to .365 xwOBA over 201 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (3% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 115 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 TF Ty France RHB .282
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Ty France
    • Four-Seam Fastball (35% usage) projects to .287 xwOBA over 389 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (31% usage) projects to .276 xwOBA over 126 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (18% usage) projects to .282 xwOBA over 203 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (11% usage) projects to .268 xwOBA over 117 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (3% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 283 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (3% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 78 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 LR Luis Rengifo SH .311
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Luis Rengifo
    • Four-Seam Fastball (35% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 358 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (31% usage) projects to .325 xwOBA over 156 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (18% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 157 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (11% usage) projects to .275 xwOBA over 68 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (3% usage) projects to .326 xwOBA over 117 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (3% usage) projects to .284 xwOBA over 78 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 JC Jake Cronenworth LHB .294
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jake Cronenworth
    • Four-Seam Fastball (35% usage) projects to .340 xwOBA over 505 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (31% usage) projects to .252 xwOBA over 131 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (18% usage) projects to .284 xwOBA over 151 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (11% usage) projects to .284 xwOBA over 67 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (3% usage) projects to .325 xwOBA over 256 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (3% usage) projects to .273 xwOBA over 78 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  9. 9 FF Freddy Fermin RHB .284
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Freddy Fermin
    • Four-Seam Fastball (35% usage) projects to .278 xwOBA over 268 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (31% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 70 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (18% usage) projects to .260 xwOBA over 130 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sweeper (11% usage) projects to .285 xwOBA over 73 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (3% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 204 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (3% usage) projects to .273 xwOBA over 46 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

Next scheduled meeting: 2026-08-23 game page →