PITCHER MATCHUP

Bailey Ober vs San Diego Padres

How the San Diego Padres's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Bailey Ober's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Bailey Ober's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .319vs RHH xwOBA .322Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Four-Seam Fastball 34%Changeup 31%Slider 18%Sweeper 12%Sinker 3%Curveball 2%

How the San Diego Padres's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the San Diego Padres's top-9-by-AB hitters against Bailey Ober, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .310
  1. 1 FT Fernando Tatis Jr. RHB .349
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Fernando Tatis Jr.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (34% usage) projects to .395 xwOBA over 476 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (31% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 180 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (18% usage) projects to .347 xwOBA over 281 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (12% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 147 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (3% usage) projects to .360 xwOBA over 415 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (2% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 69 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 JM Jackson Merrill LHB .326
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jackson Merrill
    • Four-Seam Fastball (34% usage) projects to .347 xwOBA over 538 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (31% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 203 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (18% usage) projects to .338 xwOBA over 208 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (12% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 114 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (3% usage) projects to .364 xwOBA over 237 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (2% usage) projects to .334 xwOBA over 121 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 MM Manny Machado RHB .324
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Manny Machado
    • Four-Seam Fastball (34% usage) projects to .376 xwOBA over 532 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (31% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 197 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (18% usage) projects to .287 xwOBA over 299 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (12% usage) projects to .271 xwOBA over 185 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (3% usage) projects to .354 xwOBA over 399 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (2% usage) projects to .277 xwOBA over 89 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  4. 4 XB Xander Bogaerts RHB .312
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Xander Bogaerts
    • Four-Seam Fastball (34% usage) projects to .352 xwOBA over 450 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (31% usage) projects to .286 xwOBA over 148 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (18% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 192 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (12% usage) projects to .278 xwOBA over 165 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (3% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 375 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (2% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 82 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 TF Ty France RHB .282
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Ty France
    • Four-Seam Fastball (34% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 450 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (31% usage) projects to .271 xwOBA over 137 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (18% usage) projects to .277 xwOBA over 219 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sweeper (12% usage) projects to .277 xwOBA over 127 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (3% usage) projects to .330 xwOBA over 306 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (2% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 86 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 JC Jake Cronenworth LHB .289
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jake Cronenworth
    • Four-Seam Fastball (34% usage) projects to .334 xwOBA over 548 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (31% usage) projects to .246 xwOBA over 152 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (18% usage) projects to .280 xwOBA over 177 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (12% usage) projects to .287 xwOBA over 75 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (3% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 274 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (2% usage) projects to .247 xwOBA over 89 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  7. 7 GS Gavin Sheets LHB .327
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Gavin Sheets
    • Four-Seam Fastball (34% usage) projects to .346 xwOBA over 458 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (31% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 187 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (18% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 181 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (12% usage) projects to .325 xwOBA over 91 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (3% usage) projects to .358 xwOBA over 207 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (2% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 117 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 MA Miguel Andujar RHB .293
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Miguel Andujar
    • Four-Seam Fastball (34% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 215 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (31% usage) projects to .279 xwOBA over 87 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (18% usage) projects to .279 xwOBA over 148 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sweeper (12% usage) projects to .252 xwOBA over 93 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (3% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 203 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (2% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 49 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 FF Freddy Fermin RHB .286
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Freddy Fermin
    • Four-Seam Fastball (34% usage) projects to .286 xwOBA over 287 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (31% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 72 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (18% usage) projects to .263 xwOBA over 141 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sweeper (12% usage) projects to .283 xwOBA over 74 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (3% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 212 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (2% usage) projects to .274 xwOBA over 46 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.