PITCHER MATCHUP

Bailey Ober vs Baltimore Orioles

How the Baltimore Orioles's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Bailey Ober's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Bailey Ober's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .319vs RHH xwOBA .322Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Four-Seam Fastball 34%Changeup 31%Slider 18%Sweeper 12%Sinker 3%Curveball 2%

How the Baltimore Orioles's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Baltimore Orioles's top-9-by-AB hitters against Bailey Ober, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .314
  1. 1 GH Gunnar Henderson LHB .324
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Gunnar Henderson
    • Four-Seam Fastball (34% usage) projects to .337 xwOBA over 569 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (31% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 255 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (18% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 258 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (12% usage) projects to .358 xwOBA over 142 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (3% usage) projects to .342 xwOBA over 353 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (2% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 128 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 PA Pete Alonso RHB .360
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Pete Alonso
    • Four-Seam Fastball (34% usage) projects to .408 xwOBA over 549 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (31% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 185 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (18% usage) projects to .362 xwOBA over 321 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (12% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 161 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (3% usage) projects to .393 xwOBA over 455 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (2% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 130 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 CM Coby Mayo RHB .313
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Coby Mayo
    • Four-Seam Fastball (34% usage) projects to .338 xwOBA over 221 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (31% usage) projects to .330 xwOBA over 79 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (18% usage) projects to .282 xwOBA over 141 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (12% usage) projects to .226 xwOBA over 80 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (3% usage) projects to .373 xwOBA over 121 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (2% usage) projects to .336 xwOBA over 46 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 SB Samuel Basallo LHB .308
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Samuel Basallo
    • Four-Seam Fastball (34% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 149 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (31% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 77 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (18% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 67 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (12% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 34 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (3% usage) projects to .337 xwOBA over 64 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (2% usage) projects to .326 xwOBA over 40 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 CC Colton Cowser LHB .305
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Colton Cowser
    • Four-Seam Fastball (34% usage) projects to .328 xwOBA over 399 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (31% usage) projects to .251 xwOBA over 204 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (18% usage) projects to .363 xwOBA over 161 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (12% usage) projects to .286 xwOBA over 85 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (3% usage) projects to .348 xwOBA over 169 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (2% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 81 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 DB Dylan Beavers LHB .306
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Dylan Beavers
    • Four-Seam Fastball (34% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 162 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (31% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 66 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (18% usage) projects to .283 xwOBA over 53 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (12% usage) projects to .285 xwOBA over 29 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (3% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 67 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (2% usage) projects to .281 xwOBA over 29 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 JH Jackson Holliday LHB .312
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jackson Holliday
    • Four-Seam Fastball (34% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 360 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (31% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 159 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (18% usage) projects to .336 xwOBA over 148 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (12% usage) projects to .280 xwOBA over 62 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (3% usage) projects to .329 xwOBA over 193 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (2% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 80 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 JJ Jeremiah Jackson RHB .288
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jeremiah Jackson
    • Four-Seam Fastball (34% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 110 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (31% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 45 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (18% usage) projects to .271 xwOBA over 90 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sweeper (12% usage) projects to .286 xwOBA over 53 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (3% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 76 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (2% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 33 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 BA Blaze Alexander RHB .308
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Blaze Alexander
    • Four-Seam Fastball (34% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 202 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (31% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 67 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (18% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 121 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (12% usage) projects to .281 xwOBA over 66 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (3% usage) projects to .347 xwOBA over 143 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (2% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 44 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.