PITCHER MATCHUP

Bailey Ober vs Baltimore Orioles

How the Baltimore Orioles's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Bailey Ober's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Bailey Ober's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .313vs RHH xwOBA .320Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Four-Seam Fastball 35%Changeup 32%Slider 17%Sweeper 11%Sinker 3%Curveball 3%

How the Baltimore Orioles's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Baltimore Orioles's top-9-by-AB hitters against Bailey Ober, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .308
  1. 1 GH Gunnar Henderson LHB .322
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Gunnar Henderson
    • Four-Seam Fastball (35% usage) projects to .336 xwOBA over 533 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (32% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 234 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (17% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 240 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (11% usage) projects to .369 xwOBA over 129 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (3% usage) projects to .340 xwOBA over 324 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (3% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 119 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 PA Pete Alonso RHB .353
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Pete Alonso
    • Four-Seam Fastball (35% usage) projects to .395 xwOBA over 494 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (32% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 163 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (17% usage) projects to .362 xwOBA over 301 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (11% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 147 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (3% usage) projects to .399 xwOBA over 424 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (3% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 116 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 LT Leody Taveras SH .275
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Leody Taveras
    • Four-Seam Fastball (35% usage) projects to .253 xwOBA over 367 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (32% usage) projects to .256 xwOBA over 158 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (17% usage) projects to .337 xwOBA over 97 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (11% usage) projects to .259 xwOBA over 54 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (3% usage) projects to .368 xwOBA over 131 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (3% usage) projects to .333 xwOBA over 70 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 CM Coby Mayo RHB .301
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Coby Mayo
    • Four-Seam Fastball (35% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 178 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (32% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 63 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (17% usage) projects to .265 xwOBA over 114 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sweeper (11% usage) projects to .237 xwOBA over 64 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (3% usage) projects to .371 xwOBA over 98 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (3% usage) projects to .335 xwOBA over 39 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 CC Colton Cowser LHB .305
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Colton Cowser
    • Four-Seam Fastball (35% usage) projects to .336 xwOBA over 364 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (32% usage) projects to .249 xwOBA over 189 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (17% usage) projects to .356 xwOBA over 150 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (11% usage) projects to .280 xwOBA over 70 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (3% usage) projects to .361 xwOBA over 160 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (3% usage) projects to .277 xwOBA over 75 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  6. 6 JJ Jeremiah Jackson RHB .290
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jeremiah Jackson
    • Four-Seam Fastball (35% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 92 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (32% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 40 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (17% usage) projects to .269 xwOBA over 83 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sweeper (11% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 48 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (3% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 69 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (3% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 29 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 TO Tyler O'Neill RHB .316
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Tyler O'Neill
    • Four-Seam Fastball (35% usage) projects to .353 xwOBA over 272 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (32% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 98 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (17% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 128 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (11% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 74 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (3% usage) projects to .334 xwOBA over 167 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (3% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 40 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 DB Dylan Beavers LHB .314
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Dylan Beavers
    • Four-Seam Fastball (35% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 120 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (32% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 42 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (17% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 38 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (11% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 22 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (3% usage) projects to .332 xwOBA over 45 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (3% usage) projects to .283 xwOBA over 19 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 CN Carlos Narváez RHB .295
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Carlos Narváez
    • Four-Seam Fastball (35% usage) projects to .278 xwOBA over 219 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (32% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 66 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (17% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 108 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (11% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 49 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (3% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 111 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (3% usage) projects to .334 xwOBA over 32 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

Next scheduled meeting: 2026-08-11 game page →