PITCHER MATCHUP

Bailey Ober vs Baltimore Orioles

How the Baltimore Orioles's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Bailey Ober's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Bailey Ober's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .316vs RHH xwOBA .321Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Four-Seam Fastball 34%Changeup 31%Slider 18%Sweeper 12%Sinker 3%Curveball 2%

How the Baltimore Orioles's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Baltimore Orioles's top-9-by-AB hitters against Bailey Ober, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .308
  1. 1 GH Gunnar Henderson LHB .325
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Gunnar Henderson
    • Four-Seam Fastball (34% usage) projects to .338 xwOBA over 568 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (31% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 254 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (18% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 257 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (12% usage) projects to .358 xwOBA over 142 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (3% usage) projects to .335 xwOBA over 352 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (2% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 128 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 PA Pete Alonso RHB .357
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Pete Alonso
    • Four-Seam Fastball (34% usage) projects to .406 xwOBA over 547 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (31% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 183 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (18% usage) projects to .361 xwOBA over 320 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (12% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 159 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (3% usage) projects to .396 xwOBA over 453 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (2% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 130 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 LT Leody Taveras SH .270
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Leody Taveras
    • Four-Seam Fastball (34% usage) projects to .252 xwOBA over 403 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (31% usage) projects to .260 xwOBA over 174 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (18% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 105 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (12% usage) projects to .255 xwOBA over 64 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (3% usage) projects to .354 xwOBA over 146 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (2% usage) projects to .326 xwOBA over 78 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 CM Coby Mayo RHB .313
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Coby Mayo
    • Four-Seam Fastball (34% usage) projects to .338 xwOBA over 219 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (31% usage) projects to .327 xwOBA over 78 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (18% usage) projects to .285 xwOBA over 138 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (12% usage) projects to .228 xwOBA over 79 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (3% usage) projects to .375 xwOBA over 119 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (2% usage) projects to .338 xwOBA over 46 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 CC Colton Cowser LHB .304
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Colton Cowser
    • Four-Seam Fastball (34% usage) projects to .328 xwOBA over 397 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (31% usage) projects to .248 xwOBA over 203 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (18% usage) projects to .361 xwOBA over 160 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (12% usage) projects to .286 xwOBA over 85 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (3% usage) projects to .353 xwOBA over 169 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (2% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 81 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 DB Dylan Beavers LHB .305
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Dylan Beavers
    • Four-Seam Fastball (34% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 158 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (31% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 65 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (18% usage) projects to .284 xwOBA over 52 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (12% usage) projects to .285 xwOBA over 29 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (3% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 67 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (2% usage) projects to .278 xwOBA over 27 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  7. 7 JJ Jeremiah Jackson RHB .291
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jeremiah Jackson
    • Four-Seam Fastball (34% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 105 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (31% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 44 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (18% usage) projects to .272 xwOBA over 90 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sweeper (12% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 52 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (3% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 73 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (2% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 33 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 CN Carlos Narváez RHB .287
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Carlos Narváez
    • Four-Seam Fastball (34% usage) projects to .262 xwOBA over 243 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (31% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 68 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (18% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 117 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (12% usage) projects to .286 xwOBA over 51 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (3% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 122 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (2% usage) projects to .334 xwOBA over 35 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 CE Christian Encarnacion-Strand RHB .319
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Christian Encarnacion-Strand
    • Four-Seam Fastball (34% usage) projects to .340 xwOBA over 129 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (31% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 42 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (18% usage) projects to .325 xwOBA over 70 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (12% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 46 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (3% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 89 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (2% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 18 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.