PITCHER MATCHUP

Bailey Ober vs Chicago Cubs

How the Chicago Cubs's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Bailey Ober's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Bailey Ober's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .319vs RHH xwOBA .322Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Four-Seam Fastball 34%Changeup 31%Slider 18%Sweeper 12%Sinker 3%Curveball 2%

How the Chicago Cubs's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Chicago Cubs's top-9-by-AB hitters against Bailey Ober, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .310
  1. 1 NH Nico Hoerner RHB .307
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Nico Hoerner
    • Four-Seam Fastball (34% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 594 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (31% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 165 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (18% usage) projects to .281 xwOBA over 267 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (12% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 153 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (3% usage) projects to .326 xwOBA over 448 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (2% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 91 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 PC Pete Crow-Armstrong LHB .330
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Pete Crow-Armstrong
    • Four-Seam Fastball (34% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 526 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (31% usage) projects to .373 xwOBA over 225 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (18% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 222 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (12% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 127 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (3% usage) projects to .335 xwOBA over 221 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (2% usage) projects to .363 xwOBA over 126 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  3. 3 AB Alex Bregman RHB .311
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Alex Bregman
    • Four-Seam Fastball (34% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 566 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (31% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 144 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (18% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 266 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (12% usage) projects to .276 xwOBA over 114 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (3% usage) projects to .343 xwOBA over 428 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (2% usage) projects to .270 xwOBA over 75 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  4. 4 MB Michael Busch LHB .327
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Michael Busch
    • Four-Seam Fastball (34% usage) projects to .349 xwOBA over 612 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (31% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 212 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (18% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 245 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (12% usage) projects to .326 xwOBA over 120 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (3% usage) projects to .373 xwOBA over 242 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (2% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 125 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 IH Ian Happ SH .293
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Ian Happ
    • Four-Seam Fastball (34% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 628 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (31% usage) projects to .272 xwOBA over 330 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (18% usage) projects to .278 xwOBA over 203 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sweeper (12% usage) projects to .280 xwOBA over 110 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (3% usage) projects to .367 xwOBA over 226 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (2% usage) projects to .336 xwOBA over 131 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 SS Seiya Suzuki RHB .317
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Seiya Suzuki
    • Four-Seam Fastball (34% usage) projects to .367 xwOBA over 496 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (31% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 151 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (18% usage) projects to .258 xwOBA over 305 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sweeper (12% usage) projects to .272 xwOBA over 166 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (3% usage) projects to .366 xwOBA over 370 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (2% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 111 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 DS Dansby Swanson RHB .294
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Dansby Swanson
    • Four-Seam Fastball (34% usage) projects to .333 xwOBA over 493 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (31% usage) projects to .263 xwOBA over 170 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (18% usage) projects to .273 xwOBA over 271 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sweeper (12% usage) projects to .285 xwOBA over 147 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (3% usage) projects to .347 xwOBA over 316 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (2% usage) projects to .283 xwOBA over 88 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 CK Carson Kelly RHB .298
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Carson Kelly
    • Four-Seam Fastball (34% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 345 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (31% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 98 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (18% usage) projects to .268 xwOBA over 183 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sweeper (12% usage) projects to .285 xwOBA over 93 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (3% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 234 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (2% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 52 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 MC Michael Conforto LHB .312
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Michael Conforto
    • Four-Seam Fastball (34% usage) projects to .346 xwOBA over 451 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (31% usage) projects to .282 xwOBA over 182 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (18% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 138 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (12% usage) projects to .278 xwOBA over 74 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (3% usage) projects to .371 xwOBA over 176 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (2% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 78 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.