PITCHER MATCHUP

Bailey Ober vs Chicago Cubs

How the Chicago Cubs's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Bailey Ober's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Bailey Ober's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .309vs RHH xwOBA .322Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Four-Seam Fastball 35%Changeup 32%Slider 18%Sweeper 11%Sinker 3%Curveball 3%

How the Chicago Cubs's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Chicago Cubs's top-9-by-AB hitters against Bailey Ober, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .308
  1. 1 NH Nico Hoerner RHB .306
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Nico Hoerner
    • Four-Seam Fastball (35% usage) projects to .327 xwOBA over 519 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (32% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 146 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (18% usage) projects to .279 xwOBA over 242 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sweeper (11% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 133 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (3% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 386 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (3% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 82 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 AB Alex Bregman RHB .315
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Alex Bregman
    • Four-Seam Fastball (35% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 494 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (32% usage) projects to .326 xwOBA over 125 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (18% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 234 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (11% usage) projects to .275 xwOBA over 96 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (3% usage) projects to .334 xwOBA over 376 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (3% usage) projects to .249 xwOBA over 62 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  3. 3 PC Pete Crow-Armstrong LHB .319
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Pete Crow-Armstrong
    • Four-Seam Fastball (35% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 438 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (32% usage) projects to .350 xwOBA over 184 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (18% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 190 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (11% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 112 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (3% usage) projects to .350 xwOBA over 182 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (3% usage) projects to .353 xwOBA over 109 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  4. 4 MB Michael Busch LHB .327
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Michael Busch
    • Four-Seam Fastball (35% usage) projects to .345 xwOBA over 534 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (32% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 170 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (18% usage) projects to .339 xwOBA over 210 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (11% usage) projects to .326 xwOBA over 105 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (3% usage) projects to .354 xwOBA over 208 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (3% usage) projects to .286 xwOBA over 111 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 IH Ian Happ SH .295
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Ian Happ
    • Four-Seam Fastball (35% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 566 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (32% usage) projects to .273 xwOBA over 286 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (18% usage) projects to .272 xwOBA over 181 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sweeper (11% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 97 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (3% usage) projects to .370 xwOBA over 205 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (3% usage) projects to .335 xwOBA over 114 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 DS Dansby Swanson RHB .296
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Dansby Swanson
    • Four-Seam Fastball (35% usage) projects to .337 xwOBA over 462 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (32% usage) projects to .266 xwOBA over 160 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (18% usage) projects to .273 xwOBA over 254 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sweeper (11% usage) projects to .278 xwOBA over 137 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (3% usage) projects to .353 xwOBA over 299 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (3% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 83 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 SS Seiya Suzuki RHB .312
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Seiya Suzuki
    • Four-Seam Fastball (35% usage) projects to .345 xwOBA over 426 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (32% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 130 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (18% usage) projects to .252 xwOBA over 271 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sweeper (11% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 139 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (3% usage) projects to .381 xwOBA over 314 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (3% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 95 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 CK Carson Kelly RHB .299
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Carson Kelly
    • Four-Seam Fastball (35% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 302 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (32% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 84 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (18% usage) projects to .257 xwOBA over 160 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sweeper (11% usage) projects to .287 xwOBA over 82 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (3% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 203 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (3% usage) projects to .336 xwOBA over 45 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 MC Michael Conforto LHB .307
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Michael Conforto
    • Four-Seam Fastball (35% usage) projects to .338 xwOBA over 407 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (32% usage) projects to .275 xwOBA over 161 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (18% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 123 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (11% usage) projects to .277 xwOBA over 67 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (3% usage) projects to .384 xwOBA over 162 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (3% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 65 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

Next scheduled meeting: 2026-07-17 game page →