PITCHER MATCHUP

Bailey Ober vs Atlanta Braves

How the Atlanta Braves's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Bailey Ober's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Bailey Ober's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .318vs RHH xwOBA .322Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Four-Seam Fastball 35%Changeup 31%Slider 18%Sweeper 11%Sinker 3%Curveball 3%

How the Atlanta Braves's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Atlanta Braves's top-9-by-AB hitters against Bailey Ober, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .314
  1. 1 MO Matt Olson LHB .329
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Matt Olson
    • Four-Seam Fastball (35% usage) projects to .357 xwOBA over 627 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (31% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 181 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (18% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 242 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (11% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 121 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (3% usage) projects to .352 xwOBA over 304 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (3% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 133 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 OA Ozzie Albies SH .285
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Ozzie Albies
    • Four-Seam Fastball (35% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 459 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (31% usage) projects to .270 xwOBA over 257 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (18% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 144 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (11% usage) projects to .277 xwOBA over 93 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (3% usage) projects to .347 xwOBA over 228 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (3% usage) projects to .262 xwOBA over 168 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  3. 3 MH Michael Harris II LHB .341
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Michael Harris II
    • Four-Seam Fastball (35% usage) projects to .342 xwOBA over 388 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (31% usage) projects to .351 xwOBA over 190 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (18% usage) projects to .331 xwOBA over 201 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (11% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 126 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (3% usage) projects to .326 xwOBA over 281 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (3% usage) projects to .356 xwOBA over 119 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  4. 4 MD Mauricio Dubón RHB .286
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Mauricio Dubón
    • Four-Seam Fastball (35% usage) projects to .280 xwOBA over 374 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (31% usage) projects to .277 xwOBA over 127 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (18% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 183 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (11% usage) projects to .284 xwOBA over 118 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (3% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 219 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (3% usage) projects to .351 xwOBA over 68 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  5. 5 AR Austin Riley RHB .310
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Austin Riley
    • Four-Seam Fastball (35% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 450 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (31% usage) projects to .332 xwOBA over 114 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (18% usage) projects to .267 xwOBA over 191 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sweeper (11% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 137 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (3% usage) projects to .344 xwOBA over 239 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (3% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 65 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 DB Drake Baldwin LHB .334
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Drake Baldwin
    • Four-Seam Fastball (35% usage) projects to .366 xwOBA over 222 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (31% usage) projects to .285 xwOBA over 107 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (18% usage) projects to .335 xwOBA over 112 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (11% usage) projects to .374 xwOBA over 42 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (3% usage) projects to .344 xwOBA over 190 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (3% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 63 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 LT Lane Thomas RHB .305
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Lane Thomas
    • Four-Seam Fastball (35% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 292 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (31% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 98 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (18% usage) projects to .278 xwOBA over 144 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sweeper (11% usage) projects to .271 xwOBA over 77 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (3% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 219 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (3% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 50 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 MY Mike Yastrzemski LHB .314
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Mike Yastrzemski
    • Four-Seam Fastball (35% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 503 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (31% usage) projects to .332 xwOBA over 137 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (18% usage) projects to .286 xwOBA over 157 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (11% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 64 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (3% usage) projects to .338 xwOBA over 188 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (3% usage) projects to .364 xwOBA over 80 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  9. 9 RA Ronald Acuña Jr. RHB .324
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Ronald Acuña Jr.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (35% usage) projects to .329 xwOBA over 303 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (31% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 93 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (18% usage) projects to .335 xwOBA over 111 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (11% usage) projects to .340 xwOBA over 65 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (3% usage) projects to .401 xwOBA over 189 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (3% usage) projects to .371 xwOBA over 44 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

Next scheduled meeting: 2026-08-17 game page →