PITCHER MATCHUP

Bailey Ober vs Atlanta Braves

How the Atlanta Braves's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Bailey Ober's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Bailey Ober's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .319vs RHH xwOBA .322Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Four-Seam Fastball 34%Changeup 31%Slider 18%Sweeper 12%Sinker 3%Curveball 2%

How the Atlanta Braves's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Atlanta Braves's top-9-by-AB hitters against Bailey Ober, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .315
  1. 1 MO Matt Olson LHB .335
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Matt Olson
    • Four-Seam Fastball (34% usage) projects to .355 xwOBA over 677 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (31% usage) projects to .332 xwOBA over 198 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (18% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 264 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (12% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 136 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (3% usage) projects to .349 xwOBA over 329 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (2% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 141 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 OA Ozzie Albies SH .280
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Ozzie Albies
    • Four-Seam Fastball (34% usage) projects to .279 xwOBA over 514 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (31% usage) projects to .264 xwOBA over 283 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (18% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 158 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (12% usage) projects to .281 xwOBA over 100 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (3% usage) projects to .348 xwOBA over 246 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (2% usage) projects to .258 xwOBA over 173 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  3. 3 MH Michael Harris II LHB .336
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Michael Harris II
    • Four-Seam Fastball (34% usage) projects to .345 xwOBA over 424 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (31% usage) projects to .333 xwOBA over 212 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (18% usage) projects to .336 xwOBA over 221 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (12% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 138 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (3% usage) projects to .330 xwOBA over 308 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (2% usage) projects to .357 xwOBA over 127 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  4. 4 MD Mauricio Dubón RHB .289
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Mauricio Dubón
    • Four-Seam Fastball (34% usage) projects to .275 xwOBA over 416 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (31% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 146 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (18% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 201 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (12% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 128 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (3% usage) projects to .325 xwOBA over 247 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (2% usage) projects to .347 xwOBA over 71 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  5. 5 AR Austin Riley RHB .309
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Austin Riley
    • Four-Seam Fastball (34% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 498 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (31% usage) projects to .327 xwOBA over 125 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (18% usage) projects to .275 xwOBA over 210 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sweeper (12% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 156 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (3% usage) projects to .337 xwOBA over 265 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (2% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 67 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 DB Drake Baldwin LHB .339
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Drake Baldwin
    • Four-Seam Fastball (34% usage) projects to .373 xwOBA over 260 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (31% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 134 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (18% usage) projects to .336 xwOBA over 137 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (12% usage) projects to .368 xwOBA over 57 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (3% usage) projects to .347 xwOBA over 220 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (2% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 73 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 RA Ronald Acuña Jr. RHB .330
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Ronald Acuña Jr.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (34% usage) projects to .342 xwOBA over 360 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (31% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 110 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (18% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 122 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (12% usage) projects to .371 xwOBA over 78 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (3% usage) projects to .375 xwOBA over 220 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (2% usage) projects to .366 xwOBA over 46 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  8. 8 MY Mike Yastrzemski LHB .312
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Mike Yastrzemski
    • Four-Seam Fastball (34% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 534 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (31% usage) projects to .334 xwOBA over 150 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (18% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 167 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (12% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 74 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (3% usage) projects to .338 xwOBA over 196 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (2% usage) projects to .363 xwOBA over 83 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  9. 9 DS Dominic Smith LHB .305
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Dominic Smith
    • Four-Seam Fastball (34% usage) projects to .327 xwOBA over 252 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (31% usage) projects to .277 xwOBA over 91 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (18% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 94 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (12% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 46 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (3% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 142 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (2% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 66 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.