PITCHER MATCHUP

Anthony Kay vs Houston Astros

How the Houston Astros's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Anthony Kay's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Anthony Kay's arsenal

Throws LHPvs LHH xwOBA .258vs RHH xwOBA .374Seasons 2026
Four-Seam Fastball 23%Sweeper 22%Cutter 18%Sinker 17%Changeup 14%Slider 6%

How the Houston Astros's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Houston Astros's top-9-by-AB hitters against Anthony Kay, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .314
  1. 1 CW Christian Walker RHB .311
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Christian Walker
    • Four-Seam Fastball (23% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 473 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (22% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 134 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (18% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 118 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (17% usage) projects to .370 xwOBA over 353 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (14% usage) projects to .233 xwOBA over 166 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (6% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 265 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 YA Yordan Alvarez SH .376
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Yordan Alvarez
    • Four-Seam Fastball (23% usage) projects to .415 xwOBA over 404 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (22% usage) projects to .343 xwOBA over 81 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (18% usage) projects to .333 xwOBA over 122 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (17% usage) projects to .407 xwOBA over 218 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (14% usage) projects to .392 xwOBA over 142 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (6% usage) projects to .350 xwOBA over 178 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  3. 3 IP Isaac Paredes RHB .308
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Isaac Paredes
    • Four-Seam Fastball (23% usage) projects to .345 xwOBA over 466 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (22% usage) projects to .281 xwOBA over 122 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (18% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 113 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (17% usage) projects to .327 xwOBA over 338 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (14% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 155 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (6% usage) projects to .287 xwOBA over 218 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 CS Cam Smith RHB .303
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Cam Smith
    • Four-Seam Fastball (23% usage) projects to .345 xwOBA over 230 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (22% usage) projects to .256 xwOBA over 86 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (18% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 66 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (17% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 235 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (14% usage) projects to .270 xwOBA over 84 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (6% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 143 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 JA Jose Altuve RHB .301
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jose Altuve
    • Four-Seam Fastball (23% usage) projects to .330 xwOBA over 456 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (22% usage) projects to .277 xwOBA over 169 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (18% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 141 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (17% usage) projects to .328 xwOBA over 338 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (14% usage) projects to .243 xwOBA over 165 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (6% usage) projects to .279 xwOBA over 321 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  6. 6 DV Daulton Varsho LHB .306
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Daulton Varsho
    • Four-Seam Fastball (23% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 416 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (22% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 63 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (18% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 112 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (17% usage) projects to .278 xwOBA over 177 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (14% usage) projects to .354 xwOBA over 143 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (6% usage) projects to .287 xwOBA over 143 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 JP Jeremy Peña RHB .319
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jeremy Peña
    • Four-Seam Fastball (23% usage) projects to .378 xwOBA over 350 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (22% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 145 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (18% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 131 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (17% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 327 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (14% usage) projects to .250 xwOBA over 130 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (6% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 291 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 YD Yainer Diaz RHB .320
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Yainer Diaz
    • Four-Seam Fastball (23% usage) projects to .343 xwOBA over 306 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (22% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 155 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (18% usage) projects to .334 xwOBA over 108 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (17% usage) projects to .356 xwOBA over 256 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (14% usage) projects to .253 xwOBA over 162 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (6% usage) projects to .334 xwOBA over 277 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 CV Christian Vázquez RHB .283
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Christian Vázquez
    • Four-Seam Fastball (23% usage) projects to .286 xwOBA over 268 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (22% usage) projects to .277 xwOBA over 57 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (18% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 64 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (17% usage) projects to .273 xwOBA over 129 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (14% usage) projects to .250 xwOBA over 53 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (6% usage) projects to .284 xwOBA over 105 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

Next scheduled meeting: 2026-08-31 game page →