PITCHER MATCHUP

Aaron Nola vs Minnesota Twins

How the Minnesota Twins's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Aaron Nola's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Aaron Nola's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .336vs RHH xwOBA .282Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Knuckle Curve 32%Four-Seam Fastball 26%Sinker 19%Changeup 14%Cutter 8%

How the Minnesota Twins's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Minnesota Twins's top-9-by-AB hitters against Aaron Nola, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .312
  1. 1 JB Josh Bell SH .317
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Josh Bell
    • Knuckle Curve (32% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 18 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .352 xwOBA over 499 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 208 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (14% usage) projects to .271 xwOBA over 272 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (8% usage) projects to .339 xwOBA over 129 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 BL Brooks Lee SH .302
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Brooks Lee
    • Knuckle Curve (32% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 12 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 358 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 167 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (14% usage) projects to .249 xwOBA over 190 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (8% usage) projects to .333 xwOBA over 90 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 KC Kody Clemens SH .318
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Kody Clemens
    • Knuckle Curve (32% usage) projects to .327 xwOBA over 11 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 354 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .328 xwOBA over 142 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (14% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 90 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (8% usage) projects to .334 xwOBA over 50 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 LK Luke Keaschall RHB .313
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Luke Keaschall
    • Knuckle Curve (32% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 4 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 171 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .327 xwOBA over 137 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (14% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 65 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (8% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 61 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 RL Royce Lewis RHB .314
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Royce Lewis
    • Knuckle Curve (32% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 11 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 281 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .366 xwOBA over 170 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (14% usage) projects to .264 xwOBA over 119 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (8% usage) projects to .282 xwOBA over 103 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 TL Trevor Larnach LHB .304
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Trevor Larnach
    • Knuckle Curve (32% usage) projects to .268 xwOBA over 26 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .346 xwOBA over 446 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .341 xwOBA over 178 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (14% usage) projects to .247 xwOBA over 165 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (8% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 110 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 AM Austin Martin RHB .324
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Austin Martin
    • Knuckle Curve (32% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 4 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .344 xwOBA over 274 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .326 xwOBA over 152 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (14% usage) projects to .282 xwOBA over 63 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (8% usage) projects to .344 xwOBA over 55 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  8. 8 VC Victor Caratini SH .303
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Victor Caratini
    • Knuckle Curve (32% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 18 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 352 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 127 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (14% usage) projects to .263 xwOBA over 139 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (8% usage) projects to .408 xwOBA over 84 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  9. 9 RJ Ryan Jeffers RHB .315
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Ryan Jeffers
    • Knuckle Curve (32% usage) projects to .281 xwOBA over 17 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .332 xwOBA over 355 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .330 xwOBA over 237 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (14% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 94 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (8% usage) projects to .382 xwOBA over 80 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

Next scheduled meeting: 2026-08-13 game page →