PITCHER MATCHUP

Aaron Nola vs Minnesota Twins

How the Minnesota Twins's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Aaron Nola's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Aaron Nola's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .332vs RHH xwOBA .280Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Knuckle Curve 33%Four-Seam Fastball 26%Sinker 19%Changeup 14%Cutter 8%

How the Minnesota Twins's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Minnesota Twins's top-9-by-AB hitters against Aaron Nola, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .309
  1. 1 BL Brooks Lee SH .306
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Brooks Lee
    • Knuckle Curve (33% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 14 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 397 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 195 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (14% usage) projects to .255 xwOBA over 223 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (8% usage) projects to .327 xwOBA over 97 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 JB Josh Bell SH .318
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Josh Bell
    • Knuckle Curve (33% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 21 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .355 xwOBA over 547 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 233 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (14% usage) projects to .274 xwOBA over 293 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (8% usage) projects to .349 xwOBA over 138 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  3. 3 KC Kody Clemens SH .315
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Kody Clemens
    • Knuckle Curve (33% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 13 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 393 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 178 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (14% usage) projects to .329 xwOBA over 108 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (8% usage) projects to .325 xwOBA over 57 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 LK Luke Keaschall RHB .317
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Luke Keaschall
    • Knuckle Curve (33% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 6 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .328 xwOBA over 225 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .338 xwOBA over 168 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (14% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 78 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (8% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 76 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 RL Royce Lewis RHB .305
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Royce Lewis
    • Knuckle Curve (33% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 14 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 316 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .355 xwOBA over 190 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (14% usage) projects to .269 xwOBA over 134 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (8% usage) projects to .281 xwOBA over 116 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 VC Victor Caratini SH .300
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Victor Caratini
    • Knuckle Curve (33% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 18 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 373 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 135 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (14% usage) projects to .256 xwOBA over 146 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (8% usage) projects to .408 xwOBA over 86 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  7. 7 RJ Ryan Jeffers RHB .308
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Ryan Jeffers
    • Knuckle Curve (33% usage) projects to .273 xwOBA over 19 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 402 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 258 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (14% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 107 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (8% usage) projects to .383 xwOBA over 93 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  8. 8 AM Austin Martin RHB .322
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Austin Martin
    • Knuckle Curve (33% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 4 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .341 xwOBA over 280 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 155 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (14% usage) projects to .278 xwOBA over 68 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (8% usage) projects to .340 xwOBA over 57 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  9. 9 RK Ryan Kreidler RHB .290
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Ryan Kreidler
    • Knuckle Curve (33% usage) projects to .258 xwOBA over limited BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher (zone profile imputed from overall vs-handedness wOBA — limited per-pitch-type data).
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .332 xwOBA over 95 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 71 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (14% usage) projects to .282 xwOBA over 34 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (8% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 27 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.