PITCHER MATCHUP

Aaron Nola vs Minnesota Twins

How the Minnesota Twins's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Aaron Nola's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Aaron Nola's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .333vs RHH xwOBA .284Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Knuckle Curve 33%Four-Seam Fastball 26%Sinker 19%Changeup 14%Cutter 8%

How the Minnesota Twins's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Minnesota Twins's top-9-by-AB hitters against Aaron Nola, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .308
  1. 1 BL Brooks Lee SH .307
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Brooks Lee
    • Knuckle Curve (33% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 14 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 404 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 196 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (14% usage) projects to .254 xwOBA over 224 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (8% usage) projects to .327 xwOBA over 98 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 KC Kody Clemens SH .315
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Kody Clemens
    • Knuckle Curve (33% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 13 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 396 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 181 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (14% usage) projects to .330 xwOBA over 109 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (8% usage) projects to .326 xwOBA over 58 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 LK Luke Keaschall RHB .318
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Luke Keaschall
    • Knuckle Curve (33% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 6 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .332 xwOBA over 232 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .337 xwOBA over 170 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (14% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 79 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (8% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 77 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 RL Royce Lewis RHB .308
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Royce Lewis
    • Knuckle Curve (33% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 14 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 319 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .352 xwOBA over 191 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (14% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 138 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (8% usage) projects to .280 xwOBA over 116 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 TL Trevor Larnach LHB .303
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Trevor Larnach
    • Knuckle Curve (33% usage) projects to .267 xwOBA over 27 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .343 xwOBA over 478 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .345 xwOBA over 188 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (14% usage) projects to .250 xwOBA over 175 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (8% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 114 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 BB Byron Buxton RHB .308
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Byron Buxton
    • Knuckle Curve (33% usage) projects to .269 xwOBA over 14 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .355 xwOBA over 387 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .334 xwOBA over 243 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (14% usage) projects to .267 xwOBA over 149 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (8% usage) projects to .329 xwOBA over 112 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 VC Victor Caratini SH .300
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Victor Caratini
    • Knuckle Curve (33% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 18 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 374 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 135 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (14% usage) projects to .254 xwOBA over 147 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (8% usage) projects to .409 xwOBA over 87 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  8. 8 AM Austin Martin RHB .322
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Austin Martin
    • Knuckle Curve (33% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 4 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .339 xwOBA over 282 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 155 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (14% usage) projects to .278 xwOBA over 70 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (8% usage) projects to .344 xwOBA over 58 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  9. 9 RK Ryan Kreidler RHB .289
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Ryan Kreidler
    • Knuckle Curve (33% usage) projects to .259 xwOBA over limited BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher (zone profile imputed from overall vs-handedness wOBA — limited per-pitch-type data).
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .329 xwOBA over 96 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .287 xwOBA over 72 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (14% usage) projects to .282 xwOBA over 34 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (8% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 27 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.