PITCHER MATCHUP

Aaron Nola vs Detroit Tigers

How the Detroit Tigers's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Aaron Nola's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Aaron Nola's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .339vs RHH xwOBA .280Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Knuckle Curve 32%Four-Seam Fastball 27%Sinker 20%Changeup 13%Cutter 8%

How the Detroit Tigers's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Detroit Tigers's top-9-by-AB hitters against Aaron Nola, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .316
  1. 1 KM Kevin McGonigle LHB .330
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Kevin McGonigle
    • Knuckle Curve (32% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 6 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (27% usage) projects to .348 xwOBA over 127 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (20% usage) projects to .354 xwOBA over 85 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (13% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 53 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (8% usage) projects to .335 xwOBA over 35 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 RG Riley Greene LHB .328
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Riley Greene
    • Knuckle Curve (32% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 18 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (27% usage) projects to .344 xwOBA over 513 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (20% usage) projects to .346 xwOBA over 254 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (13% usage) projects to .257 xwOBA over 251 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (8% usage) projects to .395 xwOBA over 119 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  3. 3 DD Dillon Dingler RHB .322
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Dillon Dingler
    • Knuckle Curve (32% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 16 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (27% usage) projects to .350 xwOBA over 256 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (20% usage) projects to .338 xwOBA over 184 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (13% usage) projects to .328 xwOBA over 81 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (8% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 68 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 ST Spencer Torkelson RHB .329
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Spencer Torkelson
    • Knuckle Curve (32% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 11 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (27% usage) projects to .362 xwOBA over 388 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (20% usage) projects to .352 xwOBA over 281 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (13% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 135 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (8% usage) projects to .268 xwOBA over 108 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  5. 5 CK Colt Keith LHB .318
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Colt Keith
    • Knuckle Curve (32% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 18 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (27% usage) projects to .341 xwOBA over 383 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (20% usage) projects to .342 xwOBA over 183 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (13% usage) projects to .243 xwOBA over 212 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (8% usage) projects to .339 xwOBA over 130 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 MV Matt Vierling RHB .307
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Matt Vierling
    • Knuckle Curve (32% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 13 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (27% usage) projects to .326 xwOBA over 272 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (20% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 176 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (13% usage) projects to .281 xwOBA over 88 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (8% usage) projects to .327 xwOBA over 69 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 ZM Zach McKinstry LHB .300
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Zach McKinstry
    • Knuckle Curve (32% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 11 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (27% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 387 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (20% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 152 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (13% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 120 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (8% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 78 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 KC Kerry Carpenter LHB .329
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Kerry Carpenter
    • Knuckle Curve (32% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 16 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (27% usage) projects to .351 xwOBA over 276 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (20% usage) projects to .362 xwOBA over 100 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (13% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 162 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (8% usage) projects to .352 xwOBA over 94 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  9. 9 HL Hao-Yu Lee RHB .285
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Hao-Yu Lee
    • Knuckle Curve (32% usage) projects to .236 xwOBA over limited BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher (zone profile imputed from overall vs-handedness wOBA — limited per-pitch-type data).
    • Four-Seam Fastball (27% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 50 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (20% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 19 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (13% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 12 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (8% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 16 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

Next scheduled meeting: 2026-07-10 game page →