PITCHER MATCHUP

Aaron Nola vs Detroit Tigers

How the Detroit Tigers's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Aaron Nola's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Aaron Nola's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .332vs RHH xwOBA .284Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Knuckle Curve 32%Four-Seam Fastball 26%Sinker 19%Changeup 14%Cutter 8%

How the Detroit Tigers's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Detroit Tigers's top-9-by-AB hitters against Aaron Nola, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .314
  1. 1 KM Kevin McGonigle LHB .325
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Kevin McGonigle
    • Knuckle Curve (32% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 7 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .348 xwOBA over 173 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .342 xwOBA over 116 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (14% usage) projects to .285 xwOBA over 72 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (8% usage) projects to .357 xwOBA over 42 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  2. 2 DD Dillon Dingler RHB .321
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Dillon Dingler
    • Knuckle Curve (32% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 16 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .345 xwOBA over 292 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .346 xwOBA over 208 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (14% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 97 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (8% usage) projects to .328 xwOBA over 73 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 ST Spencer Torkelson RHB .324
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Spencer Torkelson
    • Knuckle Curve (32% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 13 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .353 xwOBA over 426 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .353 xwOBA over 302 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (14% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 148 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (8% usage) projects to .279 xwOBA over 117 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  4. 4 CK Colt Keith LHB .312
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Colt Keith
    • Knuckle Curve (32% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 20 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .341 xwOBA over 398 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .341 xwOBA over 200 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (14% usage) projects to .230 xwOBA over 231 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (8% usage) projects to .344 xwOBA over 137 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  5. 5 ZM Zach McKinstry LHB .294
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Zach McKinstry
    • Knuckle Curve (32% usage) projects to .286 xwOBA over 13 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 417 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 170 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (14% usage) projects to .279 xwOBA over 133 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (8% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 87 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 GT Gleyber Torres RHB .327
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Gleyber Torres
    • Knuckle Curve (32% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 14 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .372 xwOBA over 494 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .348 xwOBA over 298 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (14% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 140 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (8% usage) projects to .327 xwOBA over 137 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 HL Hao-Yu Lee RHB .303
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Hao-Yu Lee
    • Knuckle Curve (32% usage) projects to .287 xwOBA over limited BIP — a roughly even matchup (zone profile imputed from overall vs-handedness wOBA — limited per-pitch-type data).
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 77 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 27 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (14% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 23 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (8% usage) projects to .285 xwOBA over 21 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 JB Javier Báez SH .311
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Javier Báez
    • Knuckle Curve (32% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 19 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .334 xwOBA over 210 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .278 xwOBA over 125 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (14% usage) projects to .283 xwOBA over 86 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (8% usage) projects to .330 xwOBA over 56 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 MC Max Clark LHB .305
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Max Clark
    • Knuckle Curve (32% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over limited BIP — a roughly even matchup (zone profile imputed from overall vs-handedness wOBA — limited per-pitch-type data).
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .325 xwOBA over 33 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 19 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (14% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 5 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (8% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 5 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.