PITCHER MATCHUP

Aaron Nola vs Detroit Tigers

How the Detroit Tigers's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Aaron Nola's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Aaron Nola's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .333vs RHH xwOBA .284Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Knuckle Curve 33%Four-Seam Fastball 26%Sinker 19%Changeup 14%Cutter 8%

How the Detroit Tigers's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Detroit Tigers's top-9-by-AB hitters against Aaron Nola, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .317
  1. 1 KM Kevin McGonigle LHB .331
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Kevin McGonigle
    • Knuckle Curve (33% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 8 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .359 xwOBA over 225 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .339 xwOBA over 136 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (14% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 86 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (8% usage) projects to .352 xwOBA over 55 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  2. 2 DD Dillon Dingler RHB .322
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Dillon Dingler
    • Knuckle Curve (33% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 21 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .353 xwOBA over 325 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .345 xwOBA over 225 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (14% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 109 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (8% usage) projects to .327 xwOBA over 75 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 ST Spencer Torkelson RHB .321
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Spencer Torkelson
    • Knuckle Curve (33% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 14 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .351 xwOBA over 463 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .361 xwOBA over 320 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (14% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 160 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (8% usage) projects to .273 xwOBA over 124 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  4. 4 RG Riley Greene LHB .328
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Riley Greene
    • Knuckle Curve (33% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 19 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .356 xwOBA over 566 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .347 xwOBA over 278 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (14% usage) projects to .260 xwOBA over 279 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (8% usage) projects to .374 xwOBA over 139 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  5. 5 CK Colt Keith LHB .310
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Colt Keith
    • Knuckle Curve (33% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 22 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .341 xwOBA over 420 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .342 xwOBA over 202 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (14% usage) projects to .226 xwOBA over 238 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (8% usage) projects to .342 xwOBA over 138 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  6. 6 ZM Zach McKinstry LHB .295
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Zach McKinstry
    • Knuckle Curve (33% usage) projects to .287 xwOBA over 15 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 434 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 186 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (14% usage) projects to .276 xwOBA over 142 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (8% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 94 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 GT Gleyber Torres RHB .325
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Gleyber Torres
    • Knuckle Curve (33% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 19 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .371 xwOBA over 523 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .349 xwOBA over 308 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (14% usage) projects to .282 xwOBA over 151 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (8% usage) projects to .327 xwOBA over 142 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 HL Hao-Yu Lee RHB .307
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Hao-Yu Lee
    • Knuckle Curve (33% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 8 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .329 xwOBA over 109 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 45 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (14% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 31 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (8% usage) projects to .284 xwOBA over 37 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 JB Javier Báez SH .313
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Javier Báez
    • Knuckle Curve (33% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 19 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .331 xwOBA over 220 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .272 xwOBA over 133 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (14% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 94 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (8% usage) projects to .331 xwOBA over 56 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.