PITCHER MATCHUP

Aaron Nola vs Kansas City Royals

How the Kansas City Royals's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Aaron Nola's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Aaron Nola's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .345vs RHH xwOBA .280Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Knuckle Curve 32%Four-Seam Fastball 27%Sinker 20%Changeup 13%Cutter 8%

How the Kansas City Royals's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Kansas City Royals's top-9-by-AB hitters against Aaron Nola, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .313
  1. 1 SP Salvador Perez RHB .326
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Salvador Perez
    • Knuckle Curve (32% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 33 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (27% usage) projects to .343 xwOBA over 420 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (20% usage) projects to .394 xwOBA over 247 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (13% usage) projects to .265 xwOBA over 160 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (8% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 125 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 BW Bobby Witt Jr. RHB .339
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Bobby Witt Jr.
    • Knuckle Curve (32% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 27 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (27% usage) projects to .363 xwOBA over 452 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (20% usage) projects to .358 xwOBA over 290 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (13% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 176 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (8% usage) projects to .378 xwOBA over 170 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  3. 3 JC Jac Caglianone LHB .321
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jac Caglianone
    • Knuckle Curve (32% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 18 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (27% usage) projects to .363 xwOBA over 141 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (20% usage) projects to .325 xwOBA over 69 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (13% usage) projects to .267 xwOBA over 72 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (8% usage) projects to .328 xwOBA over 34 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 CJ Carter Jensen LHB .324
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Carter Jensen
    • Knuckle Curve (32% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 9 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (27% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 110 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (20% usage) projects to .326 xwOBA over 49 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (13% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 39 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (8% usage) projects to .352 xwOBA over 27 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  5. 5 IC Isaac Collins SH .306
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Isaac Collins
    • Knuckle Curve (32% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 12 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (27% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 334 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (20% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 99 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (13% usage) projects to .233 xwOBA over 85 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (8% usage) projects to .339 xwOBA over 42 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 MM Michael Massey LHB .291
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Michael Massey
    • Knuckle Curve (32% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 14 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (27% usage) projects to .278 xwOBA over 303 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (20% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 103 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (13% usage) projects to .274 xwOBA over 140 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (8% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 57 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 LT Lane Thomas RHB .305
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Lane Thomas
    • Knuckle Curve (32% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 10 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (27% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 272 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (20% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 188 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (13% usage) projects to .335 xwOBA over 88 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (8% usage) projects to .332 xwOBA over 63 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 NL Nick Loftin RHB .302
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Nick Loftin
    • Knuckle Curve (32% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 6 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (27% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 178 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (20% usage) projects to .280 xwOBA over 97 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (13% usage) projects to .267 xwOBA over 48 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (8% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 45 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 SM Starling Marte RHB .304
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Starling Marte
    • Knuckle Curve (32% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 11 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (27% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 221 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (20% usage) projects to .276 xwOBA over 141 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (13% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 79 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (8% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 56 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

Next scheduled meeting: 2026-07-05 game page →