PITCHER MATCHUP

Aaron Nola vs Kansas City Royals

How the Kansas City Royals's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Aaron Nola's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Aaron Nola's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .336vs RHH xwOBA .282Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Knuckle Curve 32%Four-Seam Fastball 26%Sinker 19%Changeup 14%Cutter 8%

How the Kansas City Royals's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Kansas City Royals's top-9-by-AB hitters against Aaron Nola, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .309
  1. 1 SP Salvador Perez RHB .324
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Salvador Perez
    • Knuckle Curve (32% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 43 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .347 xwOBA over 448 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .408 xwOBA over 256 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (14% usage) projects to .261 xwOBA over 175 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (8% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 135 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 JC Jac Caglianone LHB .315
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jac Caglianone
    • Knuckle Curve (32% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 25 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .347 xwOBA over 169 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 91 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (14% usage) projects to .278 xwOBA over 88 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (8% usage) projects to .335 xwOBA over 41 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 BW Bobby Witt Jr. RHB .338
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Bobby Witt Jr.
    • Knuckle Curve (32% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 29 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .363 xwOBA over 477 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .353 xwOBA over 305 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (14% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 190 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (8% usage) projects to .375 xwOBA over 177 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  4. 4 CJ Carter Jensen LHB .311
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Carter Jensen
    • Knuckle Curve (32% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 15 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 146 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 67 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (14% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 50 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (8% usage) projects to .350 xwOBA over 30 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  5. 5 IC Isaac Collins SH .308
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Isaac Collins
    • Knuckle Curve (32% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 16 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 370 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 117 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (14% usage) projects to .241 xwOBA over 98 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (8% usage) projects to .344 xwOBA over 47 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  6. 6 MM Michael Massey LHB .290
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Michael Massey
    • Knuckle Curve (32% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 16 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .276 xwOBA over 336 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 118 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (14% usage) projects to .266 xwOBA over 157 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (8% usage) projects to .337 xwOBA over 62 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 NL Nick Loftin RHB .302
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Nick Loftin
    • Knuckle Curve (32% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 7 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 208 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 115 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (14% usage) projects to .266 xwOBA over 54 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (8% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 55 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 KI Kyle Isbel LHB .289
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Kyle Isbel
    • Knuckle Curve (32% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 25 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 332 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .287 xwOBA over 140 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (14% usage) projects to .264 xwOBA over 133 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (8% usage) projects to .280 xwOBA over 84 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 SM Starling Marte RHB .306
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Starling Marte
    • Knuckle Curve (32% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 13 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 231 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .283 xwOBA over 147 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (14% usage) projects to .329 xwOBA over 84 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (8% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 58 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.