PITCHER MATCHUP

Aaron Nola vs Kansas City Royals

How the Kansas City Royals's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Aaron Nola's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Aaron Nola's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .332vs RHH xwOBA .284Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Knuckle Curve 33%Four-Seam Fastball 26%Sinker 19%Changeup 14%Cutter 8%

How the Kansas City Royals's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Kansas City Royals's top-9-by-AB hitters against Aaron Nola, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .318
  1. 1 SP Salvador Perez RHB .324
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Salvador Perez
    • Knuckle Curve (33% usage) projects to .286 xwOBA over 44 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .360 xwOBA over 482 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .389 xwOBA over 281 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (14% usage) projects to .273 xwOBA over 184 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (8% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 154 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 BW Bobby Witt Jr. RHB .345
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Bobby Witt Jr.
    • Knuckle Curve (33% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 31 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .376 xwOBA over 517 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .359 xwOBA over 333 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (14% usage) projects to .335 xwOBA over 203 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (8% usage) projects to .370 xwOBA over 195 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  3. 3 CJ Carter Jensen LHB .313
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Carter Jensen
    • Knuckle Curve (33% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 18 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 188 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 92 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (14% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 66 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (8% usage) projects to .391 xwOBA over 44 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  4. 4 JC Jac Caglianone LHB .316
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jac Caglianone
    • Knuckle Curve (33% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 28 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .360 xwOBA over 198 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 106 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (14% usage) projects to .283 xwOBA over 102 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (8% usage) projects to .327 xwOBA over 54 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 IC Isaac Collins SH .306
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Isaac Collins
    • Knuckle Curve (33% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 16 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 406 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 133 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (14% usage) projects to .240 xwOBA over 118 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (8% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 58 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 MM Michael Massey LHB .298
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Michael Massey
    • Knuckle Curve (33% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 16 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 376 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 141 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (14% usage) projects to .272 xwOBA over 172 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (8% usage) projects to .358 xwOBA over 75 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  7. 7 VP Vinnie Pasquantino LHB .327
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Vinnie Pasquantino
    • Knuckle Curve (33% usage) projects to .345 xwOBA over 45 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .327 xwOBA over 592 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .328 xwOBA over 251 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (14% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 216 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (8% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 130 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 NL Nick Loftin RHB .302
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Nick Loftin
    • Knuckle Curve (33% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 7 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 241 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .286 xwOBA over 142 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (14% usage) projects to .261 xwOBA over 64 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (8% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 65 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 MG Maikel Garcia RHB .327
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Maikel Garcia
    • Knuckle Curve (33% usage) projects to .325 xwOBA over 36 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .348 xwOBA over 472 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .332 xwOBA over 347 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (14% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 106 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (8% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 144 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.