PITCHER MATCHUP

Aaron Nola vs Tampa Bay Rays

How the Tampa Bay Rays's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Aaron Nola's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Aaron Nola's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .333vs RHH xwOBA .284Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Knuckle Curve 33%Four-Seam Fastball 26%Sinker 19%Changeup 14%Cutter 8%

How the Tampa Bay Rays's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Tampa Bay Rays's top-9-by-AB hitters against Aaron Nola, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .303
  1. 1 JC Junior Caminero RHB .335
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Junior Caminero
    • Knuckle Curve (33% usage) projects to .325 xwOBA over 29 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .389 xwOBA over 312 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .327 xwOBA over 348 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (14% usage) projects to .266 xwOBA over 165 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (8% usage) projects to .346 xwOBA over 112 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  2. 2 YD Yandy Díaz RHB .314
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Yandy Díaz
    • Knuckle Curve (33% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 24 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 505 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .364 xwOBA over 452 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (14% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 191 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (8% usage) projects to .255 xwOBA over 174 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  3. 3 JA Jonathan Aranda LHB .317
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jonathan Aranda
    • Knuckle Curve (33% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 18 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .336 xwOBA over 422 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 212 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (14% usage) projects to .337 xwOBA over 128 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (8% usage) projects to .326 xwOBA over 117 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 CS Chandler Simpson LHB .292
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Chandler Simpson
    • Knuckle Curve (33% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 21 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 381 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .264 xwOBA over 229 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (14% usage) projects to .268 xwOBA over 100 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (8% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 77 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 LH Liam Hicks LHB .308
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Liam Hicks
    • Knuckle Curve (33% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 14 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .344 xwOBA over 333 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 167 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (14% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 111 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (8% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 78 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 TW Taylor Walls SH .274
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Taylor Walls
    • Knuckle Curve (33% usage) projects to .278 xwOBA over 16 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .257 xwOBA over 394 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 143 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (14% usage) projects to .228 xwOBA over 113 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (8% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 104 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 JD Jonny DeLuca RHB .290
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jonny DeLuca
    • Knuckle Curve (33% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 14 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .268 xwOBA over 212 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 150 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (14% usage) projects to .283 xwOBA over 81 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (8% usage) projects to .336 xwOBA over 66 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 RP Richie Palacios LHB .310
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Richie Palacios
    • Knuckle Curve (33% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 26 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 266 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .281 xwOBA over 136 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (14% usage) projects to .332 xwOBA over 74 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (8% usage) projects to .332 xwOBA over 62 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 NF Nick Fortes RHB .286
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Nick Fortes
    • Knuckle Curve (33% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 5 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .271 xwOBA over 234 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 213 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (14% usage) projects to .279 xwOBA over 93 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (8% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 72 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.