PITCHER MATCHUP

Aaron Nola vs Tampa Bay Rays

How the Tampa Bay Rays's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Aaron Nola's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Aaron Nola's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .332vs RHH xwOBA .280Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Knuckle Curve 33%Four-Seam Fastball 26%Sinker 19%Changeup 14%Cutter 8%

How the Tampa Bay Rays's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Tampa Bay Rays's top-9-by-AB hitters against Aaron Nola, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .304
  1. 1 JC Junior Caminero RHB .331
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Junior Caminero
    • Knuckle Curve (33% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 26 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .386 xwOBA over 295 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .338 xwOBA over 337 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (14% usage) projects to .269 xwOBA over 155 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (8% usage) projects to .344 xwOBA over 102 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  2. 2 YD Yandy Díaz RHB .311
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Yandy Díaz
    • Knuckle Curve (33% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 21 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 485 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .359 xwOBA over 436 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (14% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 184 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (8% usage) projects to .256 xwOBA over 166 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  3. 3 JA Jonathan Aranda LHB .319
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jonathan Aranda
    • Knuckle Curve (33% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 17 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .337 xwOBA over 395 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 200 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (14% usage) projects to .331 xwOBA over 125 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (8% usage) projects to .340 xwOBA over 109 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  4. 4 CS Chandler Simpson LHB .292
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Chandler Simpson
    • Knuckle Curve (33% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 20 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 366 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .267 xwOBA over 214 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (14% usage) projects to .269 xwOBA over 99 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (8% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 74 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 LH Liam Hicks LHB .311
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Liam Hicks
    • Knuckle Curve (33% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 13 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .348 xwOBA over 319 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 157 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (14% usage) projects to .287 xwOBA over 108 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (8% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 67 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 CM Cedric Mullins LHB .291
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Cedric Mullins
    • Knuckle Curve (33% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 24 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 518 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 219 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (14% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 150 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (8% usage) projects to .279 xwOBA over 117 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  7. 7 TW Taylor Walls SH .278
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Taylor Walls
    • Knuckle Curve (33% usage) projects to .283 xwOBA over 15 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .265 xwOBA over 379 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 138 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (14% usage) projects to .230 xwOBA over 106 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (8% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 99 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 JD Jonny DeLuca RHB .292
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jonny DeLuca
    • Knuckle Curve (33% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 10 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .269 xwOBA over 203 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .284 xwOBA over 141 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (14% usage) projects to .285 xwOBA over 71 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (8% usage) projects to .349 xwOBA over 59 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  9. 9 RP Richie Palacios LHB .311
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Richie Palacios
    • Knuckle Curve (33% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 26 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 256 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .286 xwOBA over 122 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (14% usage) projects to .339 xwOBA over 71 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (8% usage) projects to .334 xwOBA over 60 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.