PITCHER MATCHUP

Aaron Nola vs Pittsburgh Pirates

How the Pittsburgh Pirates's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Aaron Nola's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Aaron Nola's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .336vs RHH xwOBA .282Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Knuckle Curve 32%Four-Seam Fastball 26%Sinker 19%Changeup 14%Cutter 8%

How the Pittsburgh Pirates's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Pittsburgh Pirates's top-9-by-AB hitters against Aaron Nola, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .311
  1. 1 BR Bryan Reynolds SH .325
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Bryan Reynolds
    • Knuckle Curve (32% usage) projects to .265 xwOBA over 42 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .352 xwOBA over 530 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .360 xwOBA over 240 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (14% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 264 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (8% usage) projects to .401 xwOBA over 154 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  2. 2 BL Brandon Lowe SH .325
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Brandon Lowe
    • Knuckle Curve (32% usage) projects to .282 xwOBA over 32 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .357 xwOBA over 376 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .371 xwOBA over 188 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (14% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 212 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (8% usage) projects to .338 xwOBA over 114 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 NG Nick Gonzales RHB .306
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Nick Gonzales
    • Knuckle Curve (32% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 21 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 307 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 281 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (14% usage) projects to .329 xwOBA over 95 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (8% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 97 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 JM Jake Mangum SH .306
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jake Mangum
    • Knuckle Curve (32% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 18 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 195 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 110 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (14% usage) projects to .265 xwOBA over 106 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (8% usage) projects to .325 xwOBA over 55 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 SH Spencer Horwitz LHB .315
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Spencer Horwitz
    • Knuckle Curve (32% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 18 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 385 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .337 xwOBA over 161 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (14% usage) projects to .287 xwOBA over 124 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (8% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 98 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 JT Jared Triolo RHB .302
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jared Triolo
    • Knuckle Curve (32% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 11 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 360 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .332 xwOBA over 227 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (14% usage) projects to .267 xwOBA over 89 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (8% usage) projects to .274 xwOBA over 68 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  7. 7 HD Henry Davis RHB .293
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Henry Davis
    • Knuckle Curve (32% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 4 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .272 xwOBA over 207 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 124 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (14% usage) projects to .262 xwOBA over 42 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (8% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 37 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 EV Esmerlyn Valdez RHB .319
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Esmerlyn Valdez
    • Knuckle Curve (32% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 4 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 54 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .347 xwOBA over 29 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (14% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 21 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (8% usage) projects to .348 xwOBA over 7 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  9. 9 JG Jacob Gonzalez LHB .309
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jacob Gonzalez
    • Knuckle Curve (32% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 3 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .330 xwOBA over 44 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 14 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (14% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 21 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (8% usage) projects to .282 xwOBA over 11 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.