PITCHER MATCHUP

Aaron Nola vs Pittsburgh Pirates

How the Pittsburgh Pirates's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Aaron Nola's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Aaron Nola's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .345vs RHH xwOBA .275Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Knuckle Curve 32%Four-Seam Fastball 27%Sinker 20%Changeup 13%Cutter 8%

How the Pittsburgh Pirates's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Pittsburgh Pirates's top-9-by-AB hitters against Aaron Nola, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .315
  1. 1 BL Brandon Lowe SH .333
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Brandon Lowe
    • Knuckle Curve (32% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 28 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (27% usage) projects to .363 xwOBA over 341 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (20% usage) projects to .370 xwOBA over 169 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (13% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 202 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (8% usage) projects to .344 xwOBA over 100 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  2. 2 BR Bryan Reynolds SH .330
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Bryan Reynolds
    • Knuckle Curve (32% usage) projects to .269 xwOBA over 40 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (27% usage) projects to .360 xwOBA over 493 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (20% usage) projects to .375 xwOBA over 219 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (13% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 250 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (8% usage) projects to .377 xwOBA over 134 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  3. 3 NG Nick Gonzales RHB .301
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Nick Gonzales
    • Knuckle Curve (32% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 17 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (27% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 270 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (20% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 249 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (13% usage) projects to .332 xwOBA over 83 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (8% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 83 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 RO Ryan O'Hearn LHB .324
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Ryan O'Hearn
    • Knuckle Curve (32% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 29 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (27% usage) projects to .354 xwOBA over 423 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (20% usage) projects to .356 xwOBA over 207 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (13% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 151 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (8% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 93 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 MO Marcell Ozuna RHB .327
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Marcell Ozuna
    • Knuckle Curve (32% usage) projects to .277 xwOBA over 34 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (27% usage) projects to .378 xwOBA over 413 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (20% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 331 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (13% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 145 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (8% usage) projects to .389 xwOBA over 86 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  6. 6 KG Konnor Griffin RHB .314
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Konnor Griffin
    • Knuckle Curve (32% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 3 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (27% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 46 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (20% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 48 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (13% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 23 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (8% usage) projects to .358 xwOBA over 17 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  7. 7 JM Jake Mangum SH .303
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jake Mangum
    • Knuckle Curve (32% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 14 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (27% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 155 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (20% usage) projects to .281 xwOBA over 90 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (13% usage) projects to .276 xwOBA over 92 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (8% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 40 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 JT Jared Triolo RHB .303
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jared Triolo
    • Knuckle Curve (32% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 11 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (27% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 330 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (20% usage) projects to .330 xwOBA over 209 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (13% usage) projects to .274 xwOBA over 81 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (8% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 57 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 HD Henry Davis RHB .298
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Henry Davis
    • Knuckle Curve (32% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 4 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (27% usage) projects to .285 xwOBA over 183 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (20% usage) projects to .325 xwOBA over 108 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (13% usage) projects to .264 xwOBA over 39 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (8% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 30 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

Next scheduled meeting: 2026-06-29 game page →