PITCHER MATCHUP

Aaron Nola vs Pittsburgh Pirates

How the Pittsburgh Pirates's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Aaron Nola's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Aaron Nola's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .333vs RHH xwOBA .284Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Knuckle Curve 33%Four-Seam Fastball 26%Sinker 19%Changeup 14%Cutter 8%

How the Pittsburgh Pirates's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Pittsburgh Pirates's top-9-by-AB hitters against Aaron Nola, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .312
  1. 1 BR Bryan Reynolds SH .324
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Bryan Reynolds
    • Knuckle Curve (33% usage) projects to .260 xwOBA over 44 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .363 xwOBA over 569 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .366 xwOBA over 267 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (14% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 294 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (8% usage) projects to .403 xwOBA over 164 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  2. 2 NG Nick Gonzales RHB .313
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Nick Gonzales
    • Knuckle Curve (33% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 22 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 343 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 311 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (14% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 107 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (8% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 107 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 JM Jake Mangum SH .302
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jake Mangum
    • Knuckle Curve (33% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 19 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 229 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 126 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (14% usage) projects to .267 xwOBA over 118 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (8% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 65 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 RO Ryan O'Hearn LHB .316
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Ryan O'Hearn
    • Knuckle Curve (33% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 31 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .337 xwOBA over 459 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .343 xwOBA over 242 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (14% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 160 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (8% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 113 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 SH Spencer Horwitz LHB .309
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Spencer Horwitz
    • Knuckle Curve (33% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 20 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 424 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 184 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (14% usage) projects to .286 xwOBA over 132 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (8% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 104 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 OC Oneil Cruz LHB .333
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Oneil Cruz
    • Knuckle Curve (33% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 46 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .372 xwOBA over 379 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 236 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (14% usage) projects to .251 xwOBA over 194 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (8% usage) projects to .420 xwOBA over 109 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  7. 7 JT Jared Triolo RHB .299
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jared Triolo
    • Knuckle Curve (33% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 11 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 375 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 258 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (14% usage) projects to .277 xwOBA over 103 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (8% usage) projects to .268 xwOBA over 73 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  8. 8 KG Konnor Griffin RHB .321
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Konnor Griffin
    • Knuckle Curve (33% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 5 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .332 xwOBA over 76 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .329 xwOBA over 76 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (14% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 36 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (8% usage) projects to .356 xwOBA over 24 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  9. 9 HD Henry Davis RHB .294
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Henry Davis
    • Knuckle Curve (33% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 4 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .275 xwOBA over 221 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .337 xwOBA over 135 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (14% usage) projects to .247 xwOBA over 51 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (8% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 40 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.