PITCHER MATCHUP

Aaron Nola vs Pittsburgh Pirates

How the Pittsburgh Pirates's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Aaron Nola's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Aaron Nola's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .332vs RHH xwOBA .280Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Knuckle Curve 33%Four-Seam Fastball 26%Sinker 19%Changeup 14%Cutter 8%

How the Pittsburgh Pirates's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Pittsburgh Pirates's top-9-by-AB hitters against Aaron Nola, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .315
  1. 1 BR Bryan Reynolds SH .324
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Bryan Reynolds
    • Knuckle Curve (33% usage) projects to .260 xwOBA over 44 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .363 xwOBA over 568 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .366 xwOBA over 266 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (14% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 293 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (8% usage) projects to .403 xwOBA over 164 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  2. 2 BL Brandon Lowe SH .326
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Brandon Lowe
    • Knuckle Curve (33% usage) projects to .277 xwOBA over 34 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .361 xwOBA over 404 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .366 xwOBA over 220 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (14% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 237 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (8% usage) projects to .358 xwOBA over 126 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  3. 3 NG Nick Gonzales RHB .311
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Nick Gonzales
    • Knuckle Curve (33% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 22 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 341 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 310 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (14% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 107 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (8% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 107 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 JM Jake Mangum SH .302
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jake Mangum
    • Knuckle Curve (33% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 19 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 229 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 125 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (14% usage) projects to .267 xwOBA over 117 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (8% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 65 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 RO Ryan O'Hearn LHB .317
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Ryan O'Hearn
    • Knuckle Curve (33% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 31 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .340 xwOBA over 457 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .343 xwOBA over 241 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (14% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 159 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (8% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 112 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 SH Spencer Horwitz LHB .309
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Spencer Horwitz
    • Knuckle Curve (33% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 20 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 420 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 184 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (14% usage) projects to .286 xwOBA over 132 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (8% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 103 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 OC Oneil Cruz LHB .332
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Oneil Cruz
    • Knuckle Curve (33% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 46 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .372 xwOBA over 379 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 236 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (14% usage) projects to .251 xwOBA over 194 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (8% usage) projects to .420 xwOBA over 109 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  8. 8 JT Jared Triolo RHB .299
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jared Triolo
    • Knuckle Curve (33% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 11 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 374 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 258 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (14% usage) projects to .277 xwOBA over 102 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (8% usage) projects to .269 xwOBA over 72 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  9. 9 KG Konnor Griffin RHB .318
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Konnor Griffin
    • Knuckle Curve (33% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 5 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 71 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .328 xwOBA over 75 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (14% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 36 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (8% usage) projects to .357 xwOBA over 24 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.