PITCHER MATCHUP

Aaron Nola vs Washington Nationals

How the Washington Nationals's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Aaron Nola's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Aaron Nola's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .333vs RHH xwOBA .284Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Knuckle Curve 33%Four-Seam Fastball 26%Sinker 19%Changeup 14%Cutter 8%

How the Washington Nationals's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Washington Nationals's top-9-by-AB hitters against Aaron Nola, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .312
  1. 1 DL Daylen Lile LHB .326
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Daylen Lile
    • Knuckle Curve (33% usage) projects to .329 xwOBA over 12 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .336 xwOBA over 276 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .333 xwOBA over 126 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (14% usage) projects to .286 xwOBA over 149 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (8% usage) projects to .341 xwOBA over 72 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  2. 2 CA CJ Abrams LHB .333
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. CJ Abrams
    • Knuckle Curve (33% usage) projects to .327 xwOBA over 38 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .337 xwOBA over 508 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .342 xwOBA over 282 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (14% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 212 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (8% usage) projects to .337 xwOBA over 134 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 JW James Wood LHB .340
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. James Wood
    • Knuckle Curve (33% usage) projects to .270 xwOBA over 36 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .410 xwOBA over 453 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .379 xwOBA over 266 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (14% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 169 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (8% usage) projects to .395 xwOBA over 105 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  4. 4 NN Nasim Nuñez SH .290
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Nasim Nuñez
    • Knuckle Curve (33% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 8 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 234 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .285 xwOBA over 88 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (14% usage) projects to .256 xwOBA over 89 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (8% usage) projects to .281 xwOBA over 37 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 JY Jacob Young RHB .308
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jacob Young
    • Knuckle Curve (33% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 12 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .334 xwOBA over 358 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 312 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (14% usage) projects to .271 xwOBA over 115 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (8% usage) projects to .341 xwOBA over 86 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  6. 6 DC Dylan Crews RHB .305
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Dylan Crews
    • Knuckle Curve (33% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 13 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 243 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .336 xwOBA over 198 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (14% usage) projects to .287 xwOBA over 72 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (8% usage) projects to .267 xwOBA over 74 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  7. 7 KR Keibert Ruiz SH .298
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Keibert Ruiz
    • Knuckle Curve (33% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 9 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 307 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 168 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (14% usage) projects to .263 xwOBA over 167 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (8% usage) projects to .266 xwOBA over 85 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  8. 8 BH Brady House RHB .304
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Brady House
    • Knuckle Curve (33% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 10 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 155 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 132 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (14% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 53 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (8% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 27 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 JV Jorbit Vivas LHB .306
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jorbit Vivas
    • Knuckle Curve (33% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 5 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 143 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .275 xwOBA over 66 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (14% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 51 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (8% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 32 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.