PITCHER MATCHUP

Aaron Nola vs Washington Nationals

How the Washington Nationals's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Aaron Nola's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Aaron Nola's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .330vs RHH xwOBA .283Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Knuckle Curve 33%Four-Seam Fastball 26%Sinker 19%Changeup 14%Cutter 8%

How the Washington Nationals's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Washington Nationals's top-9-by-AB hitters against Aaron Nola, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .312
  1. 1 DL Daylen Lile LHB .327
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Daylen Lile
    • Knuckle Curve (33% usage) projects to .328 xwOBA over 12 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .339 xwOBA over 270 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .334 xwOBA over 122 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (14% usage) projects to .287 xwOBA over 140 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (8% usage) projects to .339 xwOBA over 68 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 CA CJ Abrams LHB .333
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. CJ Abrams
    • Knuckle Curve (33% usage) projects to .327 xwOBA over 38 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .337 xwOBA over 499 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .342 xwOBA over 281 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (14% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 207 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (8% usage) projects to .343 xwOBA over 132 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  3. 3 JW James Wood LHB .342
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. James Wood
    • Knuckle Curve (33% usage) projects to .272 xwOBA over 35 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .413 xwOBA over 443 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .380 xwOBA over 259 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (14% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 161 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (8% usage) projects to .393 xwOBA over 105 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  4. 4 NN Nasim Nuñez SH .290
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Nasim Nuñez
    • Knuckle Curve (33% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 8 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 226 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .285 xwOBA over 82 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (14% usage) projects to .258 xwOBA over 87 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (8% usage) projects to .283 xwOBA over 36 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 JY Jacob Young RHB .308
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jacob Young
    • Knuckle Curve (33% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 12 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .338 xwOBA over 354 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 307 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (14% usage) projects to .271 xwOBA over 115 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (8% usage) projects to .339 xwOBA over 82 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 DC Dylan Crews RHB .300
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Dylan Crews
    • Knuckle Curve (33% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 12 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 232 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .327 xwOBA over 191 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (14% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 70 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (8% usage) projects to .270 xwOBA over 71 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  7. 7 KR Keibert Ruiz SH .299
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Keibert Ruiz
    • Knuckle Curve (33% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 9 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 301 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 165 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (14% usage) projects to .269 xwOBA over 163 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (8% usage) projects to .269 xwOBA over 84 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  8. 8 BH Brady House RHB .305
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Brady House
    • Knuckle Curve (33% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 10 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 146 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 128 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (14% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 52 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (8% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 24 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 JV Jorbit Vivas LHB .305
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jorbit Vivas
    • Knuckle Curve (33% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 5 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 135 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .272 xwOBA over 61 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (14% usage) projects to .277 xwOBA over 48 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (8% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 32 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.