PITCHER MATCHUP

Aaron Nola vs Washington Nationals

How the Washington Nationals's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Aaron Nola's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Aaron Nola's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .341vs RHH xwOBA .278Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Knuckle Curve 32%Four-Seam Fastball 26%Sinker 19%Changeup 14%Cutter 8%

How the Washington Nationals's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Washington Nationals's top-9-by-AB hitters against Aaron Nola, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .309
  1. 1 DL Daylen Lile LHB .327
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Daylen Lile
    • Knuckle Curve (32% usage) projects to .329 xwOBA over 12 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .340 xwOBA over 220 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .335 xwOBA over 102 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (14% usage) projects to .281 xwOBA over 121 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (8% usage) projects to .333 xwOBA over 59 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 CA CJ Abrams LHB .334
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. CJ Abrams
    • Knuckle Curve (32% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 34 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .343 xwOBA over 460 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .347 xwOBA over 260 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (14% usage) projects to .328 xwOBA over 193 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (8% usage) projects to .360 xwOBA over 124 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  3. 3 NN Nasim Nuñez SH .293
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Nasim Nuñez
    • Knuckle Curve (32% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 8 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 183 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 69 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (14% usage) projects to .261 xwOBA over 80 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (8% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 31 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 JY Jacob Young RHB .308
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jacob Young
    • Knuckle Curve (32% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 12 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .325 xwOBA over 322 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 280 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (14% usage) projects to .279 xwOBA over 108 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (8% usage) projects to .327 xwOBA over 71 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 KR Keibert Ruiz SH .298
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Keibert Ruiz
    • Knuckle Curve (32% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 9 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 278 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 157 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (14% usage) projects to .285 xwOBA over 144 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (8% usage) projects to .272 xwOBA over 76 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  6. 6 DC Dylan Crews RHB .302
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Dylan Crews
    • Knuckle Curve (32% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 10 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 185 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .327 xwOBA over 156 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (14% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 60 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (8% usage) projects to .282 xwOBA over 61 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 JV Jorbit Vivas LHB .307
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jorbit Vivas
    • Knuckle Curve (32% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 4 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 100 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .285 xwOBA over 40 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (14% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 36 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (8% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 21 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 JT José Tena LHB .306
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. José Tena
    • Knuckle Curve (32% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 10 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 181 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 64 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (14% usage) projects to .268 xwOBA over 70 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (8% usage) projects to .329 xwOBA over 44 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 BH Brady House RHB .302
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Brady House
    • Knuckle Curve (32% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 10 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 118 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 102 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (14% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 40 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (8% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 16 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.