PITCHER MATCHUP

Aaron Nola vs Washington Nationals

How the Washington Nationals's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Aaron Nola's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Aaron Nola's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .344vs RHH xwOBA .276Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Knuckle Curve 32%Four-Seam Fastball 27%Sinker 20%Changeup 13%Cutter 9%

How the Washington Nationals's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Washington Nationals's top-9-by-AB hitters against Aaron Nola, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .319
  1. 1 DL Daylen Lile LHB .334
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Daylen Lile
    • Knuckle Curve (32% usage) projects to .332 xwOBA over 10 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (27% usage) projects to .353 xwOBA over 188 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (20% usage) projects to .339 xwOBA over 94 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (13% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 103 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (9% usage) projects to .337 xwOBA over 46 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 JW James Wood LHB .344
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. James Wood
    • Knuckle Curve (32% usage) projects to .281 xwOBA over 31 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (27% usage) projects to .411 xwOBA over 391 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (20% usage) projects to .371 xwOBA over 214 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (13% usage) projects to .286 xwOBA over 140 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (9% usage) projects to .391 xwOBA over 92 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  3. 3 CA CJ Abrams LHB .334
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. CJ Abrams
    • Knuckle Curve (32% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 33 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (27% usage) projects to .337 xwOBA over 422 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (20% usage) projects to .351 xwOBA over 245 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (13% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 182 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (9% usage) projects to .361 xwOBA over 113 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  4. 4 LG Luis García Jr. LHB .332
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Luis García Jr.
    • Knuckle Curve (32% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 32 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (27% usage) projects to .359 xwOBA over 305 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (20% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 200 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (13% usage) projects to .285 xwOBA over 173 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (9% usage) projects to .376 xwOBA over 100 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  5. 5 JY Jacob Young RHB .309
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jacob Young
    • Knuckle Curve (32% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 11 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (27% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 303 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (20% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 271 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (13% usage) projects to .281 xwOBA over 101 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (9% usage) projects to .336 xwOBA over 64 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 NN Nasim Nuñez SH .300
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Nasim Nuñez
    • Knuckle Curve (32% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 5 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (27% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 149 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (20% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 54 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (13% usage) projects to .269 xwOBA over 69 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (9% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 22 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 CM Curtis Mead RHB .316
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Curtis Mead
    • Knuckle Curve (32% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 7 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (27% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 169 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (20% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 109 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (13% usage) projects to .337 xwOBA over 69 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (9% usage) projects to .325 xwOBA over 50 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 KR Keibert Ruiz SH .298
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Keibert Ruiz
    • Knuckle Curve (32% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 9 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (27% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 257 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (20% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 143 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (13% usage) projects to .279 xwOBA over 138 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (9% usage) projects to .274 xwOBA over 75 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  9. 9 JV Jorbit Vivas LHB .306
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jorbit Vivas
    • Knuckle Curve (32% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 2 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (27% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 78 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (20% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 29 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (13% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 29 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (9% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 14 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

Next scheduled meeting: 2026-06-24 game page →