PITCHER MATCHUP

Aaron Nola vs New York Mets

How the New York Mets's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Aaron Nola's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Aaron Nola's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .330vs RHH xwOBA .282Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Knuckle Curve 32%Four-Seam Fastball 26%Sinker 19%Changeup 14%Cutter 8%

How the New York Mets's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the New York Mets's top-9-by-AB hitters against Aaron Nola, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .327
  1. 1 BB Bo Bichette RHB .315
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Bo Bichette
    • Knuckle Curve (32% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 34 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 356 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 344 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (14% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 140 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (8% usage) projects to .325 xwOBA over 123 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 CB Carson Benge LHB .313
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Carson Benge
    • Knuckle Curve (32% usage) projects to .278 xwOBA over 12 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .334 xwOBA over 185 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .355 xwOBA over 92 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (14% usage) projects to .283 xwOBA over 65 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (8% usage) projects to .343 xwOBA over 42 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  3. 3 MS Marcus Semien RHB .325
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Marcus Semien
    • Knuckle Curve (32% usage) projects to .338 xwOBA over 18 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .325 xwOBA over 521 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 343 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (14% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 142 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (8% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 136 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 AE A.J. Ewing LHB .321
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. A.J. Ewing
    • Knuckle Curve (32% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 6 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .363 xwOBA over 111 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .330 xwOBA over 86 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (14% usage) projects to .284 xwOBA over 54 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (8% usage) projects to .329 xwOBA over 25 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 BB Brett Baty LHB .327
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Brett Baty
    • Knuckle Curve (32% usage) projects to .328 xwOBA over 23 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .344 xwOBA over 365 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .327 xwOBA over 128 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (14% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 121 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (8% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 71 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 FL Francisco Lindor SH .344
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Francisco Lindor
    • Knuckle Curve (32% usage) projects to .370 xwOBA over 32 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .362 xwOBA over 615 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .335 xwOBA over 211 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (14% usage) projects to .274 xwOBA over 244 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (8% usage) projects to .326 xwOBA over 152 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 JS Juan Soto LHB .371
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Juan Soto
    • Knuckle Curve (32% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 28 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .442 xwOBA over 475 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .394 xwOBA over 351 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (14% usage) projects to .333 xwOBA over 207 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (8% usage) projects to .347 xwOBA over 148 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  8. 8 FA Francisco Alvarez RHB .317
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Francisco Alvarez
    • Knuckle Curve (32% usage) projects to .278 xwOBA over 21 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .355 xwOBA over 255 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .325 xwOBA over 198 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (14% usage) projects to .332 xwOBA over 75 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (8% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 60 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 JY Jared Young LHB .306
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jared Young
    • Knuckle Curve (32% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 12 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 103 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 45 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (14% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 37 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (8% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 38 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.