PITCHER MATCHUP

Aaron Nola vs New York Mets

How the New York Mets's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Aaron Nola's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Aaron Nola's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .348vs RHH xwOBA .276Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Knuckle Curve 32%Four-Seam Fastball 27%Sinker 19%Changeup 13%Cutter 9%

How the New York Mets's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the New York Mets's top-9-by-AB hitters against Aaron Nola, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .327
  1. 1 BB Bo Bichette RHB .318
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Bo Bichette
    • Knuckle Curve (32% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 27 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (27% usage) projects to .329 xwOBA over 295 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 272 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (13% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 107 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (9% usage) projects to .327 xwOBA over 106 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 MS Marcus Semien RHB .324
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Marcus Semien
    • Knuckle Curve (32% usage) projects to .342 xwOBA over 15 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (27% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 481 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 295 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (13% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 130 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (9% usage) projects to .335 xwOBA over 120 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 CB Carson Benge LHB .315
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Carson Benge
    • Knuckle Curve (32% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 7 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (27% usage) projects to .335 xwOBA over 97 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 36 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (13% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 25 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (9% usage) projects to .359 xwOBA over 26 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  4. 4 BB Brett Baty LHB .325
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Brett Baty
    • Knuckle Curve (32% usage) projects to .335 xwOBA over 21 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (27% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 298 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .325 xwOBA over 103 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (13% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 95 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (9% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 60 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 JS Juan Soto LHB .373
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Juan Soto
    • Knuckle Curve (32% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 25 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (27% usage) projects to .446 xwOBA over 432 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .382 xwOBA over 317 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (13% usage) projects to .334 xwOBA over 187 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (9% usage) projects to .358 xwOBA over 135 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  6. 6 MV Mark Vientos RHB .312
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Mark Vientos
    • Knuckle Curve (32% usage) projects to .279 xwOBA over 12 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (27% usage) projects to .335 xwOBA over 280 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .341 xwOBA over 217 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (13% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 115 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (9% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 81 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 FA Francisco Alvarez RHB .319
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Francisco Alvarez
    • Knuckle Curve (32% usage) projects to .278 xwOBA over 19 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (27% usage) projects to .367 xwOBA over 197 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 145 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (13% usage) projects to .352 xwOBA over 55 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (9% usage) projects to .330 xwOBA over 47 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 LT Luis Torrens RHB .317
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Luis Torrens
    • Knuckle Curve (32% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 11 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (27% usage) projects to .329 xwOBA over 135 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .325 xwOBA over 99 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (13% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 42 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (9% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 40 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 AE A.J. Ewing LHB .342
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. A.J. Ewing
    • Knuckle Curve (32% usage) projects to .382 xwOBA over limited BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter (zone profile imputed from overall vs-handedness wOBA — limited per-pitch-type data).
    • Four-Seam Fastball (27% usage) projects to .351 xwOBA over 37 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 19 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (13% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 12 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (9% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 4 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

Next scheduled meeting: 2026-06-18 game page →