PITCHER MATCHUP

Aaron Nola vs New York Mets

How the New York Mets's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Aaron Nola's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Aaron Nola's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .341vs RHH xwOBA .278Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Knuckle Curve 32%Four-Seam Fastball 26%Sinker 19%Changeup 14%Cutter 8%

How the New York Mets's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the New York Mets's top-9-by-AB hitters against Aaron Nola, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .321
  1. 1 BB Bo Bichette RHB .316
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Bo Bichette
    • Knuckle Curve (32% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 31 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 326 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 301 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (14% usage) projects to .330 xwOBA over 125 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (8% usage) projects to .325 xwOBA over 113 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 CB Carson Benge LHB .318
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Carson Benge
    • Knuckle Curve (32% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 8 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .344 xwOBA over 140 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .337 xwOBA over 70 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (14% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 43 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (8% usage) projects to .357 xwOBA over 31 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  3. 3 MS Marcus Semien RHB .324
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Marcus Semien
    • Knuckle Curve (32% usage) projects to .341 xwOBA over 17 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 490 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 311 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (14% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 131 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (8% usage) projects to .328 xwOBA over 125 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 BB Brett Baty LHB .326
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Brett Baty
    • Knuckle Curve (32% usage) projects to .331 xwOBA over 22 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .333 xwOBA over 339 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 123 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (14% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 112 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (8% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 66 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 AE A.J. Ewing LHB .315
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. A.J. Ewing
    • Knuckle Curve (32% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 3 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .343 xwOBA over 74 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 46 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (14% usage) projects to .284 xwOBA over 32 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (8% usage) projects to .327 xwOBA over 17 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 FA Francisco Alvarez RHB .320
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Francisco Alvarez
    • Knuckle Curve (32% usage) projects to .283 xwOBA over 20 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .368 xwOBA over 228 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 178 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (14% usage) projects to .329 xwOBA over 64 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (8% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 54 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 FL Francisco Lindor SH .348
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Francisco Lindor
    • Knuckle Curve (32% usage) projects to .369 xwOBA over 31 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .368 xwOBA over 557 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .350 xwOBA over 194 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (14% usage) projects to .284 xwOBA over 216 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (8% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 141 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 LT Luis Torrens RHB .314
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Luis Torrens
    • Knuckle Curve (32% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 11 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .329 xwOBA over 146 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 114 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (14% usage) projects to .284 xwOBA over 51 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (8% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 47 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 JY Jared Young LHB .310
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jared Young
    • Knuckle Curve (32% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 9 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .333 xwOBA over 68 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .283 xwOBA over 28 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (14% usage) projects to .332 xwOBA over 22 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (8% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 25 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.