PITCHER MATCHUP

Aaron Nola vs New York Mets

How the New York Mets's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Aaron Nola's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Aaron Nola's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .333vs RHH xwOBA .284Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Knuckle Curve 33%Four-Seam Fastball 26%Sinker 19%Changeup 14%Cutter 8%

How the New York Mets's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the New York Mets's top-9-by-AB hitters against Aaron Nola, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .326
  1. 1 BB Bo Bichette RHB .312
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Bo Bichette
    • Knuckle Curve (33% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 37 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 371 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 352 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (14% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 146 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (8% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 128 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 CB Carson Benge LHB .315
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Carson Benge
    • Knuckle Curve (33% usage) projects to .273 xwOBA over 14 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .335 xwOBA over 198 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .375 xwOBA over 105 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (14% usage) projects to .286 xwOBA over 72 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (8% usage) projects to .338 xwOBA over 45 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 MS Marcus Semien RHB .324
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Marcus Semien
    • Knuckle Curve (33% usage) projects to .338 xwOBA over 18 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 534 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 351 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (14% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 145 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (8% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 138 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 AE A.J. Ewing LHB .319
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. A.J. Ewing
    • Knuckle Curve (33% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 7 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .363 xwOBA over 122 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .331 xwOBA over 94 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (14% usage) projects to .273 xwOBA over 60 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (8% usage) projects to .331 xwOBA over 27 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 BB Brett Baty LHB .332
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Brett Baty
    • Knuckle Curve (33% usage) projects to .341 xwOBA over 26 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .348 xwOBA over 382 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .327 xwOBA over 130 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (14% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 122 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (8% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 73 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 FL Francisco Lindor SH .340
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Francisco Lindor
    • Knuckle Curve (33% usage) projects to .358 xwOBA over 35 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .361 xwOBA over 638 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .339 xwOBA over 224 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (14% usage) projects to .273 xwOBA over 250 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (8% usage) projects to .325 xwOBA over 154 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 JS Juan Soto LHB .369
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Juan Soto
    • Knuckle Curve (33% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 28 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .438 xwOBA over 484 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .390 xwOBA over 366 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (14% usage) projects to .331 xwOBA over 217 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (8% usage) projects to .349 xwOBA over 149 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  8. 8 FA Francisco Alvarez RHB .315
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Francisco Alvarez
    • Knuckle Curve (33% usage) projects to .278 xwOBA over 23 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .364 xwOBA over 262 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 204 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (14% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 79 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (8% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 64 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 JY Jared Young LHB .308
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jared Young
    • Knuckle Curve (33% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 12 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 107 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 50 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (14% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 38 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (8% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 38 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.