PITCHER MATCHUP

Aaron Nola vs Miami Marlins

How the Miami Marlins's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Aaron Nola's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Aaron Nola's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .341vs RHH xwOBA .278Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Knuckle Curve 32%Four-Seam Fastball 26%Sinker 19%Changeup 14%Cutter 8%

How the Miami Marlins's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Miami Marlins's top-9-by-AB hitters against Aaron Nola, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .314
  1. 1 OL Otto Lopez RHB .317
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Otto Lopez
    • Knuckle Curve (32% usage) projects to .286 xwOBA over 28 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .374 xwOBA over 346 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .371 xwOBA over 298 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (14% usage) projects to .219 xwOBA over 165 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (8% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 96 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 XE Xavier Edwards SH .309
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Xavier Edwards
    • Knuckle Curve (32% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 23 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .336 xwOBA over 447 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 224 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (14% usage) projects to .274 xwOBA over 183 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (8% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 111 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 JM Jakob Marsee LHB .308
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jakob Marsee
    • Knuckle Curve (32% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 16 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 224 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 100 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (14% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 67 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (8% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 56 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 LH Liam Hicks LHB .312
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Liam Hicks
    • Knuckle Curve (32% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 11 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .350 xwOBA over 265 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 128 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (14% usage) projects to .283 xwOBA over 93 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (8% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 55 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 KS Kyle Stowers LHB .320
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Kyle Stowers
    • Knuckle Curve (32% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 13 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 349 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .336 xwOBA over 121 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (14% usage) projects to .276 xwOBA over 136 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (8% usage) projects to .367 xwOBA over 73 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  6. 6 JS Javier Sanoja RHB .306
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Javier Sanoja
    • Knuckle Curve (32% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 8 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 194 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 115 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (14% usage) projects to .280 xwOBA over 55 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (8% usage) projects to .279 xwOBA over 44 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  7. 7 HH Heriberto Hernández RHB .329
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Heriberto Hernández
    • Knuckle Curve (32% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 5 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .346 xwOBA over 159 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .358 xwOBA over 109 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (14% usage) projects to .285 xwOBA over 53 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (8% usage) projects to .330 xwOBA over 37 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 JM Joe Mack LHB .308
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Joe Mack
    • Knuckle Curve (32% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 5 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .327 xwOBA over 48 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 30 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (14% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 27 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (8% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 17 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 LJ Leo Jiménez RHB .317
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Leo Jiménez
    • Knuckle Curve (32% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 3 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .344 xwOBA over 109 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 80 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (14% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 50 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (8% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 22 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

Next scheduled meeting: 2026-07-28 game page →