PITCHER MATCHUP

Aaron Nola vs Miami Marlins

How the Miami Marlins's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Aaron Nola's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Aaron Nola's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .331vs RHH xwOBA .276Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Knuckle Curve 32%Four-Seam Fastball 26%Sinker 19%Changeup 14%Cutter 8%

How the Miami Marlins's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Miami Marlins's top-9-by-AB hitters against Aaron Nola, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .313
  1. 1 OL Otto Lopez RHB .314
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Otto Lopez
    • Knuckle Curve (32% usage) projects to .284 xwOBA over 30 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .369 xwOBA over 379 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .371 xwOBA over 327 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (14% usage) projects to .223 xwOBA over 193 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (8% usage) projects to .286 xwOBA over 117 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 JM Jakob Marsee LHB .312
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jakob Marsee
    • Knuckle Curve (32% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 18 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 268 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 127 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (14% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 77 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (8% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 73 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 KS Kyle Stowers LHB .318
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Kyle Stowers
    • Knuckle Curve (32% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 14 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 387 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .337 xwOBA over 132 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (14% usage) projects to .271 xwOBA over 153 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (8% usage) projects to .358 xwOBA over 83 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  4. 4 JS Javier Sanoja RHB .313
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Javier Sanoja
    • Knuckle Curve (32% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 10 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 219 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 152 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (14% usage) projects to .284 xwOBA over 77 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (8% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 63 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 HH Heriberto Hernández RHB .325
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Heriberto Hernández
    • Knuckle Curve (32% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 7 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .353 xwOBA over 203 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .344 xwOBA over 149 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (14% usage) projects to .279 xwOBA over 67 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (8% usage) projects to .353 xwOBA over 46 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  6. 6 OC Owen Caissie LHB .309
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Owen Caissie
    • Knuckle Curve (32% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 9 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .333 xwOBA over 95 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 47 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (14% usage) projects to .271 xwOBA over 54 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (8% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 26 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 JM Joe Mack LHB .294
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Joe Mack
    • Knuckle Curve (32% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 8 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 70 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 42 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (14% usage) projects to .256 xwOBA over 46 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (8% usage) projects to .341 xwOBA over 26 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  8. 8 GC Griffin Conine LHB .323
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Griffin Conine
    • Knuckle Curve (32% usage) projects to .284 xwOBA over 13 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .370 xwOBA over 104 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .358 xwOBA over 48 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (14% usage) projects to .278 xwOBA over 65 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (8% usage) projects to .328 xwOBA over 33 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 AR Agustín Ramírez RHB .309
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Agustín Ramírez
    • Knuckle Curve (32% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 12 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 191 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 192 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (14% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 68 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (8% usage) projects to .327 xwOBA over 48 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.