PITCHER MATCHUP

Aaron Nola vs Miami Marlins

How the Miami Marlins's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Aaron Nola's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Aaron Nola's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .333vs RHH xwOBA .284Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Knuckle Curve 33%Four-Seam Fastball 26%Sinker 19%Changeup 14%Cutter 8%

How the Miami Marlins's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Miami Marlins's top-9-by-AB hitters against Aaron Nola, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .313
  1. 1 OL Otto Lopez RHB .312
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Otto Lopez
    • Knuckle Curve (33% usage) projects to .282 xwOBA over 32 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .366 xwOBA over 396 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .369 xwOBA over 346 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (14% usage) projects to .221 xwOBA over 199 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (8% usage) projects to .287 xwOBA over 120 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 XE Xavier Edwards SH .307
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Xavier Edwards
    • Knuckle Curve (33% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 24 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .334 xwOBA over 481 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 254 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (14% usage) projects to .270 xwOBA over 205 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (8% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 116 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 JM Jakob Marsee LHB .311
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jakob Marsee
    • Knuckle Curve (33% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 19 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 287 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 134 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (14% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 83 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (8% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 77 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 JS Javier Sanoja RHB .310
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Javier Sanoja
    • Knuckle Curve (33% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 10 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 233 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .326 xwOBA over 163 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (14% usage) projects to .270 xwOBA over 86 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (8% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 68 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 HH Heriberto Hernández RHB .325
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Heriberto Hernández
    • Knuckle Curve (33% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 10 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .354 xwOBA over 220 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .342 xwOBA over 163 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (14% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 76 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (8% usage) projects to .341 xwOBA over 51 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  6. 6 KS Kyle Stowers LHB .315
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Kyle Stowers
    • Knuckle Curve (33% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 16 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 410 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .335 xwOBA over 135 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (14% usage) projects to .269 xwOBA over 157 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (8% usage) projects to .346 xwOBA over 88 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  7. 7 JM Joe Mack LHB .295
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Joe Mack
    • Knuckle Curve (33% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 10 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 80 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 44 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (14% usage) projects to .254 xwOBA over 47 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (8% usage) projects to .337 xwOBA over 28 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 OC Owen Caissie LHB .309
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Owen Caissie
    • Knuckle Curve (33% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 9 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .333 xwOBA over 95 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 48 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (14% usage) projects to .271 xwOBA over 54 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (8% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 26 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 GC Griffin Conine LHB .336
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Griffin Conine
    • Knuckle Curve (33% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 14 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .406 xwOBA over 118 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .358 xwOBA over 53 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (14% usage) projects to .262 xwOBA over 76 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (8% usage) projects to .329 xwOBA over 38 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.