PITCHER MATCHUP

Aaron Nola vs Seattle Mariners

How the Seattle Mariners's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Aaron Nola's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Aaron Nola's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .332vs RHH xwOBA .284Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Knuckle Curve 32%Four-Seam Fastball 26%Sinker 19%Changeup 14%Cutter 8%

How the Seattle Mariners's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Seattle Mariners's top-9-by-AB hitters against Aaron Nola, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .319
  1. 1 CY Cole Young LHB .315
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Cole Young
    • Knuckle Curve (32% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 8 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 257 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 134 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (14% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 87 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (8% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 65 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 JN Josh Naylor LHB .324
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Josh Naylor
    • Knuckle Curve (32% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 26 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .367 xwOBA over 505 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 296 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (14% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 239 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (8% usage) projects to .362 xwOBA over 134 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  3. 3 JR Julio Rodríguez RHB .317
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Julio Rodríguez
    • Knuckle Curve (32% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 27 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .345 xwOBA over 462 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .344 xwOBA over 397 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (14% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 188 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (8% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 129 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 RA Randy Arozarena RHB .330
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Randy Arozarena
    • Knuckle Curve (32% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 27 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .357 xwOBA over 552 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .350 xwOBA over 354 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (14% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 198 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (8% usage) projects to .326 xwOBA over 129 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 TW Taylor Ward RHB .319
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Taylor Ward
    • Knuckle Curve (32% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 27 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .380 xwOBA over 546 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .335 xwOBA over 379 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (14% usage) projects to .258 xwOBA over 143 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (8% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 147 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 DC Dominic Canzone LHB .331
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Dominic Canzone
    • Knuckle Curve (32% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 17 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .386 xwOBA over 234 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .347 xwOBA over 116 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (14% usage) projects to .277 xwOBA over 132 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (8% usage) projects to .383 xwOBA over 60 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  7. 7 CR Cal Raleigh SH .334
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Cal Raleigh
    • Knuckle Curve (32% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 32 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .344 xwOBA over 607 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .394 xwOBA over 161 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (14% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 297 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (8% usage) projects to .348 xwOBA over 130 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  8. 8 VR Victor Robles RHB .307
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Victor Robles
    • Knuckle Curve (32% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 4 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 159 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 95 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (14% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 62 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (8% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 42 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 LR Leo Rivas SH .293
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Leo Rivas
    • Knuckle Curve (32% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 3 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 118 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 55 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (14% usage) projects to .268 xwOBA over 35 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (8% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 33 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

Next scheduled meeting: 2026-08-25 game page →