PITCHER MATCHUP

Aaron Nola vs Seattle Mariners

How the Seattle Mariners's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Aaron Nola's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Aaron Nola's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .333vs RHH xwOBA .284Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Knuckle Curve 33%Four-Seam Fastball 26%Sinker 19%Changeup 14%Cutter 8%

How the Seattle Mariners's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Seattle Mariners's top-9-by-AB hitters against Aaron Nola, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .320
  1. 1 JN Josh Naylor LHB .317
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Josh Naylor
    • Knuckle Curve (33% usage) projects to .286 xwOBA over 28 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .359 xwOBA over 546 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 321 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (14% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 248 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (8% usage) projects to .351 xwOBA over 140 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  2. 2 JR Julio Rodríguez RHB .315
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Julio Rodríguez
    • Knuckle Curve (33% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 29 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .336 xwOBA over 497 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .346 xwOBA over 423 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (14% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 195 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (8% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 141 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 CY Cole Young LHB .313
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Cole Young
    • Knuckle Curve (33% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 9 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 282 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 146 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (14% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 103 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (8% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 79 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 RA Randy Arozarena RHB .331
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Randy Arozarena
    • Knuckle Curve (33% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 28 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .352 xwOBA over 588 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .357 xwOBA over 372 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (14% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 212 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (8% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 135 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 TW Taylor Ward RHB .315
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Taylor Ward
    • Knuckle Curve (33% usage) projects to .282 xwOBA over 30 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .377 xwOBA over 559 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .330 xwOBA over 391 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (14% usage) projects to .263 xwOBA over 150 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (8% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 151 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 DC Dominic Canzone LHB .334
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Dominic Canzone
    • Knuckle Curve (33% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 17 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .395 xwOBA over 264 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .353 xwOBA over 138 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (14% usage) projects to .282 xwOBA over 142 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (8% usage) projects to .368 xwOBA over 71 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  7. 7 CR Cal Raleigh SH .344
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Cal Raleigh
    • Knuckle Curve (33% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 36 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .348 xwOBA over 642 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .402 xwOBA over 175 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (14% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 314 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (8% usage) projects to .337 xwOBA over 143 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 JC J.P. Crawford LHB .311
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. J.P. Crawford
    • Knuckle Curve (33% usage) projects to .269 xwOBA over 31 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .357 xwOBA over 545 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 288 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (14% usage) projects to .329 xwOBA over 125 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (8% usage) projects to .287 xwOBA over 136 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 WW Weston Wilson RHB .300
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Weston Wilson
    • Knuckle Curve (33% usage) projects to .280 xwOBA over 6 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 129 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 58 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (14% usage) projects to .265 xwOBA over 55 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (8% usage) projects to .349 xwOBA over 34 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.