PITCHER MATCHUP

Aaron Nola vs Los Angeles Dodgers

How the Los Angeles Dodgers's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Aaron Nola's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Aaron Nola's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .334vs RHH xwOBA .278Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Knuckle Curve 32%Four-Seam Fastball 26%Sinker 19%Changeup 14%Cutter 8%

How the Los Angeles Dodgers's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Los Angeles Dodgers's top-9-by-AB hitters against Aaron Nola, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .320
  1. 1 FF Freddie Freeman LHB .326
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Freddie Freeman
    • Knuckle Curve (32% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 37 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .366 xwOBA over 609 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .336 xwOBA over 313 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (14% usage) projects to .274 xwOBA over 166 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (8% usage) projects to .372 xwOBA over 148 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  2. 2 KT Kyle Tucker LHB .333
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Kyle Tucker
    • Knuckle Curve (32% usage) projects to .326 xwOBA over 24 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .373 xwOBA over 505 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .343 xwOBA over 199 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (14% usage) projects to .272 xwOBA over 167 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (8% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 126 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 MM Max Muncy LHB .344
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Max Muncy
    • Knuckle Curve (32% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 23 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .391 xwOBA over 324 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .384 xwOBA over 144 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (14% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 162 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (8% usage) projects to .354 xwOBA over 82 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  4. 4 MB Mookie Betts RHB .336
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Mookie Betts
    • Knuckle Curve (32% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 25 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .364 xwOBA over 480 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .379 xwOBA over 314 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (14% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 150 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (8% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 143 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 TH Teoscar Hernández RHB .328
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Teoscar Hernández
    • Knuckle Curve (32% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 33 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .349 xwOBA over 408 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .353 xwOBA over 292 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (14% usage) projects to .325 xwOBA over 156 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (8% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 108 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 DR Dalton Rushing LHB .316
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Dalton Rushing
    • Knuckle Curve (32% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 8 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 125 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 51 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (14% usage) projects to .284 xwOBA over 56 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (8% usage) projects to .348 xwOBA over 31 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  7. 7 TE Tommy Edman SH .296
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Tommy Edman
    • Knuckle Curve (32% usage) projects to .286 xwOBA over 18 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 257 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .337 xwOBA over 87 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (14% usage) projects to .274 xwOBA over 111 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (8% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 63 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 AF Alex Freeland SH .295
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Alex Freeland
    • Knuckle Curve (32% usage) projects to .286 xwOBA over 9 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 97 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 47 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (14% usage) projects to .264 xwOBA over 50 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (8% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 24 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 HF Hunter Feduccia LHB .306
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Hunter Feduccia
    • Knuckle Curve (32% usage) projects to .284 xwOBA over 9 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .338 xwOBA over 111 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 55 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (14% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 41 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (8% usage) projects to .339 xwOBA over 21 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.