PITCHER MATCHUP

Aaron Nola vs Los Angeles Dodgers

How the Los Angeles Dodgers's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Aaron Nola's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Aaron Nola's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .336vs RHH xwOBA .282Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Knuckle Curve 32%Four-Seam Fastball 26%Sinker 19%Changeup 14%Cutter 8%

How the Los Angeles Dodgers's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Los Angeles Dodgers's top-9-by-AB hitters against Aaron Nola, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .321
  1. 1 AP Andy Pages RHB .305
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Andy Pages
    • Knuckle Curve (32% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 28 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 460 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 288 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (14% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 108 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (8% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 92 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 FF Freddie Freeman LHB .321
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Freddie Freeman
    • Knuckle Curve (32% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 35 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .362 xwOBA over 563 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .335 xwOBA over 288 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (14% usage) projects to .262 xwOBA over 148 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (8% usage) projects to .365 xwOBA over 142 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  3. 3 KT Kyle Tucker LHB .339
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Kyle Tucker
    • Knuckle Curve (32% usage) projects to .327 xwOBA over 23 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .383 xwOBA over 456 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .355 xwOBA over 175 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (14% usage) projects to .266 xwOBA over 151 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (8% usage) projects to .328 xwOBA over 118 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 MM Max Muncy LHB .344
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Max Muncy
    • Knuckle Curve (32% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 22 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .388 xwOBA over 289 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .384 xwOBA over 128 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (14% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 143 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (8% usage) projects to .341 xwOBA over 74 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  5. 5 MB Mookie Betts RHB .334
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Mookie Betts
    • Knuckle Curve (32% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 23 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .361 xwOBA over 437 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .372 xwOBA over 277 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (14% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 132 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (8% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 131 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 TH Teoscar Hernández RHB .330
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Teoscar Hernández
    • Knuckle Curve (32% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 30 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .351 xwOBA over 378 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .347 xwOBA over 267 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (14% usage) projects to .329 xwOBA over 142 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (8% usage) projects to .330 xwOBA over 94 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 AF Alex Freeland SH .293
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Alex Freeland
    • Knuckle Curve (32% usage) projects to .286 xwOBA over 9 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 95 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 46 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (14% usage) projects to .268 xwOBA over 45 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (8% usage) projects to .287 xwOBA over 24 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 DR Dalton Rushing LHB .312
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Dalton Rushing
    • Knuckle Curve (32% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 7 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 117 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 48 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (14% usage) projects to .282 xwOBA over 54 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (8% usage) projects to .331 xwOBA over 28 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 MR Miguel Rojas RHB .312
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Miguel Rojas
    • Knuckle Curve (32% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 10 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .326 xwOBA over 247 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .327 xwOBA over 161 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (14% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 72 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (8% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 70 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

Next scheduled meeting: 2026-07-22 game page →