PITCHER MATCHUP

Aaron Nola vs Los Angeles Dodgers

How the Los Angeles Dodgers's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Aaron Nola's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Aaron Nola's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .333vs RHH xwOBA .284Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Knuckle Curve 33%Four-Seam Fastball 26%Sinker 19%Changeup 14%Cutter 8%

How the Los Angeles Dodgers's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Los Angeles Dodgers's top-9-by-AB hitters against Aaron Nola, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .324
  1. 1 FF Freddie Freeman LHB .326
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Freddie Freeman
    • Knuckle Curve (33% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 38 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .359 xwOBA over 643 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .344 xwOBA over 335 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (14% usage) projects to .283 xwOBA over 170 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (8% usage) projects to .373 xwOBA over 154 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  2. 2 KT Kyle Tucker LHB .333
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Kyle Tucker
    • Knuckle Curve (33% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 27 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .374 xwOBA over 536 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .351 xwOBA over 232 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (14% usage) projects to .272 xwOBA over 172 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (8% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 136 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 AP Andy Pages RHB .303
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Andy Pages
    • Knuckle Curve (33% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 32 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 503 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 320 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (14% usage) projects to .285 xwOBA over 120 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (8% usage) projects to .335 xwOBA over 107 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 MM Max Muncy LHB .347
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Max Muncy
    • Knuckle Curve (33% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 24 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .403 xwOBA over 342 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .388 xwOBA over 167 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (14% usage) projects to .286 xwOBA over 172 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (8% usage) projects to .374 xwOBA over 91 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  5. 5 MB Mookie Betts RHB .335
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Mookie Betts
    • Knuckle Curve (33% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 26 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .366 xwOBA over 518 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .371 xwOBA over 338 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (14% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 159 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (8% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 149 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 TH Teoscar Hernández RHB .331
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Teoscar Hernández
    • Knuckle Curve (33% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 33 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .354 xwOBA over 445 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .352 xwOBA over 303 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (14% usage) projects to .341 xwOBA over 169 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (8% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 115 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 TE Tommy Edman SH .293
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Tommy Edman
    • Knuckle Curve (33% usage) projects to .278 xwOBA over 20 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .286 xwOBA over 290 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .335 xwOBA over 101 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (14% usage) projects to .276 xwOBA over 116 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (8% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 73 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 WS Will Smith RHB .345
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Will Smith
    • Knuckle Curve (33% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 20 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .379 xwOBA over 390 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .357 xwOBA over 247 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (14% usage) projects to .353 xwOBA over 106 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (8% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 73 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 MR Miguel Rojas RHB .306
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Miguel Rojas
    • Knuckle Curve (33% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 10 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 271 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .327 xwOBA over 182 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (14% usage) projects to .282 xwOBA over 80 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (8% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 76 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.