PITCHER MATCHUP

Aaron Nola vs Arizona Diamondbacks

How the Arizona Diamondbacks's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Aaron Nola's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Aaron Nola's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .334vs RHH xwOBA .281Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Knuckle Curve 32%Four-Seam Fastball 26%Sinker 19%Changeup 14%Cutter 8%

How the Arizona Diamondbacks's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Arizona Diamondbacks's top-9-by-AB hitters against Aaron Nola, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .316
  1. 1 CC Corbin Carroll LHB .324
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Corbin Carroll
    • Knuckle Curve (32% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 31 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .352 xwOBA over 622 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 296 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (14% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 188 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (8% usage) projects to .344 xwOBA over 111 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  2. 2 GP Geraldo Perdomo SH .326
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Geraldo Perdomo
    • Knuckle Curve (32% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 19 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .348 xwOBA over 571 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 246 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (14% usage) projects to .280 xwOBA over 215 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (8% usage) projects to .358 xwOBA over 123 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  3. 3 NA Nolan Arenado RHB .301
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Nolan Arenado
    • Knuckle Curve (32% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 21 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 442 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 283 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (14% usage) projects to .266 xwOBA over 140 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (8% usage) projects to .340 xwOBA over 91 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  4. 4 IV Ildemaro Vargas SH .315
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Ildemaro Vargas
    • Knuckle Curve (32% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 7 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 294 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .330 xwOBA over 125 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (14% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 132 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (8% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 48 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 GM Gabriel Moreno RHB .339
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Gabriel Moreno
    • Knuckle Curve (32% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 23 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .351 xwOBA over 321 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .376 xwOBA over 221 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (14% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 101 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (8% usage) projects to .365 xwOBA over 59 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  6. 6 TT Tim Tawa RHB .312
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Tim Tawa
    • Knuckle Curve (32% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 7 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 118 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .358 xwOBA over 95 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (14% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 39 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (8% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 37 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 RW Ryan Waldschmidt RHB .301
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Ryan Waldschmidt
    • Knuckle Curve (32% usage) projects to .284 xwOBA over limited BIP — a roughly even matchup (zone profile imputed from overall vs-handedness wOBA — limited per-pitch-type data).
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 53 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 42 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (14% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 25 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (8% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 21 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 LN Lars Nootbaar LHB .330
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Lars Nootbaar
    • Knuckle Curve (32% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 18 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .357 xwOBA over 397 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .329 xwOBA over 242 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (14% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 136 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (8% usage) projects to .355 xwOBA over 80 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  9. 9 JF Jose Fernandez RHB .294
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jose Fernandez
    • Knuckle Curve (32% usage) projects to .268 xwOBA over limited BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher (zone profile imputed from overall vs-handedness wOBA — limited per-pitch-type data).
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 44 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 46 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (14% usage) projects to .270 xwOBA over 20 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (8% usage) projects to .336 xwOBA over 14 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

Next scheduled meeting: 2026-08-31 game page →