PITCHER MATCHUP

Aaron Nola vs Arizona Diamondbacks

How the Arizona Diamondbacks's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Aaron Nola's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Aaron Nola's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .333vs RHH xwOBA .284Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Knuckle Curve 33%Four-Seam Fastball 26%Sinker 19%Changeup 14%Cutter 8%

How the Arizona Diamondbacks's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Arizona Diamondbacks's top-9-by-AB hitters against Aaron Nola, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .320
  1. 1 CC Corbin Carroll LHB .319
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Corbin Carroll
    • Knuckle Curve (33% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 34 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .347 xwOBA over 658 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 305 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (14% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 198 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (8% usage) projects to .342 xwOBA over 117 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  2. 2 GP Geraldo Perdomo SH .328
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Geraldo Perdomo
    • Knuckle Curve (33% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 20 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .345 xwOBA over 612 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .329 xwOBA over 258 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (14% usage) projects to .285 xwOBA over 226 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (8% usage) projects to .363 xwOBA over 134 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  3. 3 KM Ketel Marte SH .338
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Ketel Marte
    • Knuckle Curve (33% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 28 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .374 xwOBA over 542 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .376 xwOBA over 201 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (14% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 310 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (8% usage) projects to .356 xwOBA over 132 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  4. 4 NA Nolan Arenado RHB .306
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Nolan Arenado
    • Knuckle Curve (33% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 23 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 463 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 304 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (14% usage) projects to .275 xwOBA over 151 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (8% usage) projects to .342 xwOBA over 97 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  5. 5 GM Gabriel Moreno RHB .337
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Gabriel Moreno
    • Knuckle Curve (33% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 26 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .360 xwOBA over 351 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .380 xwOBA over 239 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (14% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 107 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (8% usage) projects to .372 xwOBA over 65 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  6. 6 IV Ildemaro Vargas SH .314
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Ildemaro Vargas
    • Knuckle Curve (33% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 8 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 312 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .328 xwOBA over 129 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (14% usage) projects to .283 xwOBA over 148 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (8% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 55 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 TT Tim Tawa RHB .312
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Tim Tawa
    • Knuckle Curve (33% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 9 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 145 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .354 xwOBA over 104 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (14% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 45 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (8% usage) projects to .325 xwOBA over 46 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 LN Lars Nootbaar LHB .329
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Lars Nootbaar
    • Knuckle Curve (33% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 20 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .364 xwOBA over 422 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .327 xwOBA over 251 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (14% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 144 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (8% usage) projects to .337 xwOBA over 89 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 RW Ryan Waldschmidt RHB .301
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Ryan Waldschmidt
    • Knuckle Curve (33% usage) projects to .284 xwOBA over limited BIP — a roughly even matchup (zone profile imputed from overall vs-handedness wOBA — limited per-pitch-type data).
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 62 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 49 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (14% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 30 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (8% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 22 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.