PITCHER MATCHUP

Aaron Nola vs Milwaukee Brewers

How the Milwaukee Brewers's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Aaron Nola's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Aaron Nola's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .333vs RHH xwOBA .284Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Knuckle Curve 33%Four-Seam Fastball 26%Sinker 19%Changeup 14%Cutter 8%

How the Milwaukee Brewers's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Milwaukee Brewers's top-9-by-AB hitters against Aaron Nola, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .313
  1. 1 BT Brice Turang LHB .318
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Brice Turang
    • Knuckle Curve (33% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 35 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .330 xwOBA over 603 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .345 xwOBA over 306 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (14% usage) projects to .262 xwOBA over 215 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (8% usage) projects to .402 xwOBA over 141 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  2. 2 WC William Contreras RHB .319
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. William Contreras
    • Knuckle Curve (33% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 31 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .336 xwOBA over 537 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .340 xwOBA over 422 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (14% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 174 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (8% usage) projects to .330 xwOBA over 162 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 JC Jackson Chourio SH .314
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jackson Chourio
    • Knuckle Curve (33% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 29 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .340 xwOBA over 459 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 347 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (14% usage) projects to .283 xwOBA over 150 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (8% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 136 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 JB Jake Bauers LHB .331
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jake Bauers
    • Knuckle Curve (33% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 31 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .375 xwOBA over 363 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .339 xwOBA over 180 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (14% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 115 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (8% usage) projects to .365 xwOBA over 76 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  5. 5 GM Garrett Mitchell LHB .322
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Garrett Mitchell
    • Knuckle Curve (33% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 19 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .343 xwOBA over 290 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .331 xwOBA over 129 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (14% usage) projects to .269 xwOBA over 91 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (8% usage) projects to .364 xwOBA over 52 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  6. 6 CY Christian Yelich LHB .315
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Christian Yelich
    • Knuckle Curve (33% usage) projects to .282 xwOBA over 24 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .359 xwOBA over 429 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 245 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (14% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 116 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (8% usage) projects to .348 xwOBA over 166 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  7. 7 JO Joey Ortiz RHB .297
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Joey Ortiz
    • Knuckle Curve (33% usage) projects to .281 xwOBA over 20 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 440 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 311 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (14% usage) projects to .283 xwOBA over 99 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (8% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 86 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 DH David Hamilton LHB .295
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. David Hamilton
    • Knuckle Curve (33% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 16 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 306 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .336 xwOBA over 139 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (14% usage) projects to .232 xwOBA over 100 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (8% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 80 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 SF Sal Frelick LHB .303
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Sal Frelick
    • Knuckle Curve (33% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 15 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 537 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 289 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (14% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 124 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (8% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 136 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.