PITCHER MATCHUP

Aaron Nola vs Milwaukee Brewers

How the Milwaukee Brewers's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Aaron Nola's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Aaron Nola's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .330vs RHH xwOBA .282Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Knuckle Curve 32%Four-Seam Fastball 26%Sinker 19%Changeup 14%Cutter 8%

How the Milwaukee Brewers's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Milwaukee Brewers's top-9-by-AB hitters against Aaron Nola, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .313
  1. 1 BT Brice Turang LHB .317
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Brice Turang
    • Knuckle Curve (32% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 35 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .333 xwOBA over 570 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .328 xwOBA over 286 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (14% usage) projects to .265 xwOBA over 204 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (8% usage) projects to .406 xwOBA over 132 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  2. 2 WC William Contreras RHB .321
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. William Contreras
    • Knuckle Curve (32% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 29 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .336 xwOBA over 508 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .334 xwOBA over 397 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (14% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 166 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (8% usage) projects to .340 xwOBA over 156 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  3. 3 JC Jackson Chourio SH .311
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jackson Chourio
    • Knuckle Curve (32% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 28 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .335 xwOBA over 435 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 322 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (14% usage) projects to .283 xwOBA over 137 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (8% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 129 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 JB Jake Bauers LHB .332
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jake Bauers
    • Knuckle Curve (32% usage) projects to .285 xwOBA over 28 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .381 xwOBA over 326 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .339 xwOBA over 160 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (14% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 108 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (8% usage) projects to .373 xwOBA over 71 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  5. 5 GM Garrett Mitchell LHB .322
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Garrett Mitchell
    • Knuckle Curve (32% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 16 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .335 xwOBA over 258 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .340 xwOBA over 120 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (14% usage) projects to .262 xwOBA over 70 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (8% usage) projects to .363 xwOBA over 51 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  6. 6 CY Christian Yelich LHB .315
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Christian Yelich
    • Knuckle Curve (32% usage) projects to .285 xwOBA over 22 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .360 xwOBA over 402 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 233 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (14% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 107 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (8% usage) projects to .342 xwOBA over 159 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  7. 7 JO Joey Ortiz RHB .303
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Joey Ortiz
    • Knuckle Curve (32% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 18 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 420 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 300 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (14% usage) projects to .287 xwOBA over 96 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (8% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 84 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 SF Sal Frelick LHB .305
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Sal Frelick
    • Knuckle Curve (32% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 14 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 524 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 279 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (14% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 113 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (8% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 131 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 DH David Hamilton LHB .295
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. David Hamilton
    • Knuckle Curve (32% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 16 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 287 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .343 xwOBA over 134 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (14% usage) projects to .236 xwOBA over 93 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (8% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 72 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.