PITCHER MATCHUP

Aaron Nola vs Milwaukee Brewers

How the Milwaukee Brewers's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Aaron Nola's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Aaron Nola's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .341vs RHH xwOBA .278Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Knuckle Curve 32%Four-Seam Fastball 26%Sinker 19%Changeup 14%Cutter 8%

How the Milwaukee Brewers's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Milwaukee Brewers's top-9-by-AB hitters against Aaron Nola, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .316
  1. 1 BT Brice Turang LHB .317
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Brice Turang
    • Knuckle Curve (32% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 35 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .336 xwOBA over 522 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 265 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (14% usage) projects to .269 xwOBA over 190 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (8% usage) projects to .407 xwOBA over 118 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  2. 2 WC William Contreras RHB .323
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. William Contreras
    • Knuckle Curve (32% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 27 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .337 xwOBA over 471 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .330 xwOBA over 371 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (14% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 147 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (8% usage) projects to .350 xwOBA over 144 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  3. 3 JB Jake Bauers LHB .330
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jake Bauers
    • Knuckle Curve (32% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 26 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .365 xwOBA over 287 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .337 xwOBA over 140 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (14% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 99 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (8% usage) projects to .388 xwOBA over 58 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  4. 4 JC Jackson Chourio SH .304
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jackson Chourio
    • Knuckle Curve (32% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 26 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 393 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .325 xwOBA over 289 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (14% usage) projects to .282 xwOBA over 118 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (8% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 109 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 GM Garrett Mitchell LHB .321
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Garrett Mitchell
    • Knuckle Curve (32% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 14 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .336 xwOBA over 216 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 102 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (14% usage) projects to .274 xwOBA over 57 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (8% usage) projects to .366 xwOBA over 45 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  6. 6 CY Christian Yelich LHB .317
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Christian Yelich
    • Knuckle Curve (32% usage) projects to .286 xwOBA over 22 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .361 xwOBA over 370 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 211 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (14% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 97 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (8% usage) projects to .334 xwOBA over 140 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 JO Joey Ortiz RHB .301
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Joey Ortiz
    • Knuckle Curve (32% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 18 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 387 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 277 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (14% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 87 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (8% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 79 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 DH David Hamilton LHB .295
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. David Hamilton
    • Knuckle Curve (32% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 15 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .286 xwOBA over 260 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .329 xwOBA over 113 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (14% usage) projects to .242 xwOBA over 88 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (8% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 65 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 AV Andrew Vaughn RHB .338
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Andrew Vaughn
    • Knuckle Curve (32% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 16 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .367 xwOBA over 360 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 218 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (14% usage) projects to .392 xwOBA over 120 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (8% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 89 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.