PITCHER MATCHUP

Aaron Nola vs Milwaukee Brewers

How the Milwaukee Brewers's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Aaron Nola's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Aaron Nola's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .348vs RHH xwOBA .276Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Knuckle Curve 32%Four-Seam Fastball 27%Sinker 19%Changeup 13%Cutter 9%

How the Milwaukee Brewers's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Milwaukee Brewers's top-9-by-AB hitters against Aaron Nola, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .312
  1. 1 WC William Contreras RHB .323
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. William Contreras
    • Knuckle Curve (32% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 27 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (27% usage) projects to .344 xwOBA over 441 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 340 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (13% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 136 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (9% usage) projects to .337 xwOBA over 135 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 BT Brice Turang LHB .319
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Brice Turang
    • Knuckle Curve (32% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 35 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (27% usage) projects to .337 xwOBA over 476 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 238 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (13% usage) projects to .271 xwOBA over 176 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (9% usage) projects to .405 xwOBA over 110 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  3. 3 JB Jake Bauers LHB .326
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jake Bauers
    • Knuckle Curve (32% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 25 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (27% usage) projects to .365 xwOBA over 250 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .336 xwOBA over 111 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (13% usage) projects to .287 xwOBA over 86 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (9% usage) projects to .375 xwOBA over 51 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  4. 4 SF Sal Frelick LHB .304
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Sal Frelick
    • Knuckle Curve (32% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 13 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (27% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 491 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 248 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (13% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 105 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (9% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 122 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 GM Garrett Mitchell LHB .320
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Garrett Mitchell
    • Knuckle Curve (32% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 14 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (27% usage) projects to .338 xwOBA over 177 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 81 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (13% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 47 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (9% usage) projects to .351 xwOBA over 38 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  6. 6 LR Luis Rengifo SH .295
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Luis Rengifo
    • Knuckle Curve (32% usage) projects to .274 xwOBA over 19 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (27% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 323 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 109 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (13% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 142 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (9% usage) projects to .270 xwOBA over 115 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  7. 7 DH David Hamilton LHB .296
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. David Hamilton
    • Knuckle Curve (32% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 15 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (27% usage) projects to .283 xwOBA over 248 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .337 xwOBA over 107 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (13% usage) projects to .241 xwOBA over 85 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (9% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 57 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 CY Christian Yelich LHB .318
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Christian Yelich
    • Knuckle Curve (32% usage) projects to .286 xwOBA over 22 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (27% usage) projects to .350 xwOBA over 332 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 188 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (13% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 85 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (9% usage) projects to .348 xwOBA over 126 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  9. 9 JC Jackson Chourio RHB .305
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jackson Chourio
    • Knuckle Curve (32% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 25 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (27% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 361 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 255 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (13% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 105 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (9% usage) projects to .286 xwOBA over 97 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.