PITCHER MATCHUP

Aaron Nola vs Atlanta Braves

How the Atlanta Braves's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Aaron Nola's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Aaron Nola's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .334vs RHH xwOBA .278Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Knuckle Curve 32%Four-Seam Fastball 26%Sinker 19%Changeup 14%Cutter 8%

How the Atlanta Braves's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Atlanta Braves's top-9-by-AB hitters against Aaron Nola, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .318
  1. 1 MO Matt Olson LHB .352
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Matt Olson
    • Knuckle Curve (32% usage) projects to .360 xwOBA over 32 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .352 xwOBA over 646 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .377 xwOBA over 312 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (14% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 188 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (8% usage) projects to .352 xwOBA over 183 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  2. 2 OA Ozzie Albies SH .295
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Ozzie Albies
    • Knuckle Curve (32% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 28 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 484 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 236 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (14% usage) projects to .253 xwOBA over 266 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (8% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 121 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 MH Michael Harris II LHB .322
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Michael Harris II
    • Knuckle Curve (32% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 35 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .353 xwOBA over 406 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 291 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (14% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 197 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (8% usage) projects to .380 xwOBA over 103 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  4. 4 AR Austin Riley RHB .307
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Austin Riley
    • Knuckle Curve (32% usage) projects to .274 xwOBA over 24 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 471 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 247 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (14% usage) projects to .336 xwOBA over 119 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (8% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 104 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 MD Mauricio Dubón RHB .296
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Mauricio Dubón
    • Knuckle Curve (32% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 21 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .279 xwOBA over 387 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .337 xwOBA over 231 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (14% usage) projects to .281 xwOBA over 134 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (8% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 110 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 DB Drake Baldwin LHB .320
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Drake Baldwin
    • Knuckle Curve (32% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 13 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .362 xwOBA over 244 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .338 xwOBA over 195 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (14% usage) projects to .259 xwOBA over 116 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (8% usage) projects to .334 xwOBA over 64 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 RA Ronald Acuña Jr. RHB .333
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Ronald Acuña Jr.
    • Knuckle Curve (32% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 14 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .333 xwOBA over 329 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .425 xwOBA over 198 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (14% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 100 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (8% usage) projects to .336 xwOBA over 85 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 LT Lane Thomas RHB .314
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Lane Thomas
    • Knuckle Curve (32% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 12 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 300 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 223 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (14% usage) projects to .331 xwOBA over 98 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (8% usage) projects to .325 xwOBA over 73 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 MY Mike Yastrzemski LHB .323
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Mike Yastrzemski
    • Knuckle Curve (32% usage) projects to .335 xwOBA over 29 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 515 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 189 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (14% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 140 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (8% usage) projects to .359 xwOBA over 101 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

Next scheduled meeting: 2026-09-06 game page →