PITCHER MATCHUP

Aaron Nola vs Atlanta Braves

How the Atlanta Braves's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Aaron Nola's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Aaron Nola's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .333vs RHH xwOBA .284Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Knuckle Curve 33%Four-Seam Fastball 26%Sinker 19%Changeup 14%Cutter 8%

How the Atlanta Braves's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Atlanta Braves's top-9-by-AB hitters against Aaron Nola, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .318
  1. 1 MO Matt Olson LHB .350
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Matt Olson
    • Knuckle Curve (33% usage) projects to .357 xwOBA over 33 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .347 xwOBA over 690 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .369 xwOBA over 331 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (14% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 200 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (8% usage) projects to .342 xwOBA over 190 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  2. 2 OA Ozzie Albies SH .293
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Ozzie Albies
    • Knuckle Curve (33% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 32 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 525 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 247 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (14% usage) projects to .255 xwOBA over 286 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (8% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 125 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 MH Michael Harris II LHB .322
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Michael Harris II
    • Knuckle Curve (33% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 38 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .353 xwOBA over 430 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 311 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (14% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 214 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (8% usage) projects to .369 xwOBA over 114 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  4. 4 MD Mauricio Dubón RHB .295
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Mauricio Dubón
    • Knuckle Curve (33% usage) projects to .286 xwOBA over 24 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .276 xwOBA over 425 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .332 xwOBA over 250 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (14% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 148 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (8% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 116 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 AR Austin Riley RHB .304
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Austin Riley
    • Knuckle Curve (33% usage) projects to .269 xwOBA over 27 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 503 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 268 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (14% usage) projects to .334 xwOBA over 126 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (8% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 109 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 DB Drake Baldwin LHB .324
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Drake Baldwin
    • Knuckle Curve (33% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 16 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .366 xwOBA over 265 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .339 xwOBA over 222 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (14% usage) projects to .269 xwOBA over 137 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (8% usage) projects to .330 xwOBA over 70 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 RA Ronald Acuña Jr. RHB .337
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Ronald Acuña Jr.
    • Knuckle Curve (33% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 16 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .346 xwOBA over 366 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .415 xwOBA over 224 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (14% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 111 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (8% usage) projects to .338 xwOBA over 92 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 MY Mike Yastrzemski LHB .323
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Mike Yastrzemski
    • Knuckle Curve (33% usage) projects to .335 xwOBA over 29 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 540 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 196 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (14% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 150 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (8% usage) projects to .368 xwOBA over 106 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  9. 9 LT Lane Thomas RHB .313
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Lane Thomas
    • Knuckle Curve (33% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 12 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 301 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 225 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (14% usage) projects to .329 xwOBA over 99 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (8% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 74 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.