PITCHER MATCHUP

Aaron Nola vs Toronto Blue Jays

How the Toronto Blue Jays's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Aaron Nola's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Aaron Nola's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .333vs RHH xwOBA .284Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Knuckle Curve 33%Four-Seam Fastball 26%Sinker 19%Changeup 14%Cutter 8%

How the Toronto Blue Jays's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Toronto Blue Jays's top-9-by-AB hitters against Aaron Nola, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .312
  1. 1 EC Ernie Clement SH .299
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Ernie Clement
    • Knuckle Curve (33% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 28 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .287 xwOBA over 417 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .339 xwOBA over 307 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (14% usage) projects to .273 xwOBA over 187 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (8% usage) projects to .268 xwOBA over 140 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  2. 2 KO Kazuma Okamoto RHB .325
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Kazuma Okamoto
    • Knuckle Curve (33% usage) projects to .333 xwOBA over 10 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .343 xwOBA over 171 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .335 xwOBA over 120 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (14% usage) projects to .277 xwOBA over 57 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (8% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 51 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 VG Vladimir Guerrero Jr. RHB .340
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
    • Knuckle Curve (33% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 36 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .383 xwOBA over 450 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .351 xwOBA over 462 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (14% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 211 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (8% usage) projects to .328 xwOBA over 180 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 AG Andrés Giménez LHB .292
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Andrés Giménez
    • Knuckle Curve (33% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 36 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 460 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 230 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (14% usage) projects to .256 xwOBA over 171 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (8% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 116 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 NL Nathan Lukes LHB .309
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Nathan Lukes
    • Knuckle Curve (33% usage) projects to .332 xwOBA over 16 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 318 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .267 xwOBA over 147 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (14% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 103 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (8% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 68 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 AK Alejandro Kirk RHB .326
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Alejandro Kirk
    • Knuckle Curve (33% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 18 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .357 xwOBA over 276 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 280 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (14% usage) projects to .334 xwOBA over 109 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (8% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 93 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 BV Brandon Valenzuela SH .298
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Brandon Valenzuela
    • Knuckle Curve (33% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 4 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 99 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 31 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (14% usage) projects to .284 xwOBA over 35 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (8% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 22 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 JS Josh Smith LHB .306
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Josh Smith
    • Knuckle Curve (33% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 28 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .326 xwOBA over 437 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .332 xwOBA over 219 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (14% usage) projects to .270 xwOBA over 203 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (8% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 112 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 YP Yohendrick Piñango LHB .317
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Yohendrick Piñango
    • Knuckle Curve (33% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over limited BIP — a roughly even matchup (zone profile imputed from overall vs-handedness wOBA — limited per-pitch-type data).
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .336 xwOBA over 52 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 22 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (14% usage) projects to .274 xwOBA over 31 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (8% usage) projects to .350 xwOBA over 11 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.