PITCHER MATCHUP

Aaron Nola vs Toronto Blue Jays

How the Toronto Blue Jays's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Aaron Nola's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Aaron Nola's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .330vs RHH xwOBA .283Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Knuckle Curve 33%Four-Seam Fastball 26%Sinker 19%Changeup 14%Cutter 8%

How the Toronto Blue Jays's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Toronto Blue Jays's top-9-by-AB hitters against Aaron Nola, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .314
  1. 1 EC Ernie Clement SH .299
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Ernie Clement
    • Knuckle Curve (33% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 26 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 409 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .340 xwOBA over 305 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (14% usage) projects to .261 xwOBA over 183 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (8% usage) projects to .268 xwOBA over 137 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  2. 2 KO Kazuma Okamoto RHB .326
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Kazuma Okamoto
    • Knuckle Curve (33% usage) projects to .333 xwOBA over 9 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .342 xwOBA over 163 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .339 xwOBA over 115 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (14% usage) projects to .281 xwOBA over 55 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (8% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 46 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 VG Vladimir Guerrero Jr. RHB .341
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
    • Knuckle Curve (33% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 36 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .384 xwOBA over 449 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .352 xwOBA over 456 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (14% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 210 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (8% usage) projects to .330 xwOBA over 178 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 AG Andrés Giménez LHB .290
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Andrés Giménez
    • Knuckle Curve (33% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 34 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 454 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 226 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (14% usage) projects to .256 xwOBA over 171 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (8% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 116 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 GS George Springer RHB .336
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. George Springer
    • Knuckle Curve (33% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 14 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .363 xwOBA over 438 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .352 xwOBA over 369 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (14% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 159 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (8% usage) projects to .387 xwOBA over 149 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  6. 6 NL Nathan Lukes LHB .307
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Nathan Lukes
    • Knuckle Curve (33% usage) projects to .332 xwOBA over 16 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 313 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .264 xwOBA over 144 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (14% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 99 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (8% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 65 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 MS Myles Straw RHB .307
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Myles Straw
    • Knuckle Curve (33% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 7 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 190 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 132 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (14% usage) projects to .287 xwOBA over 56 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (8% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 50 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 AK Alejandro Kirk RHB .325
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Alejandro Kirk
    • Knuckle Curve (33% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 16 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .360 xwOBA over 274 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 276 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (14% usage) projects to .338 xwOBA over 106 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (8% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 90 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 BV Brandon Valenzuela SH .297
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Brandon Valenzuela
    • Knuckle Curve (33% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 4 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 94 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 29 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (14% usage) projects to .284 xwOBA over 34 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (8% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 21 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.