PITCHER MATCHUP

Aaron Nola vs Toronto Blue Jays

How the Toronto Blue Jays's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Aaron Nola's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Aaron Nola's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .341vs RHH xwOBA .278Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Knuckle Curve 32%Four-Seam Fastball 26%Sinker 19%Changeup 14%Cutter 8%

How the Toronto Blue Jays's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Toronto Blue Jays's top-9-by-AB hitters against Aaron Nola, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .313
  1. 1 EC Ernie Clement SH .299
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Ernie Clement
    • Knuckle Curve (32% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 25 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 362 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .329 xwOBA over 275 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (14% usage) projects to .260 xwOBA over 163 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (8% usage) projects to .265 xwOBA over 131 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  2. 2 KO Kazuma Okamoto RHB .321
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Kazuma Okamoto
    • Knuckle Curve (32% usage) projects to .337 xwOBA over 7 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .330 xwOBA over 131 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .331 xwOBA over 88 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (14% usage) projects to .274 xwOBA over 34 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (8% usage) projects to .286 xwOBA over 27 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 VG Vladimir Guerrero Jr. RHB .339
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
    • Knuckle Curve (32% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 35 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .390 xwOBA over 413 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .344 xwOBA over 426 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (14% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 201 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (8% usage) projects to .336 xwOBA over 169 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 AG Andrés Giménez LHB .292
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Andrés Giménez
    • Knuckle Curve (32% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 33 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 416 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 204 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (14% usage) projects to .267 xwOBA over 157 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (8% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 106 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 GS George Springer RHB .342
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. George Springer
    • Knuckle Curve (32% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 14 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .372 xwOBA over 405 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .365 xwOBA over 340 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (14% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 145 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (8% usage) projects to .376 xwOBA over 140 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  6. 6 NL Nathan Lukes LHB .310
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Nathan Lukes
    • Knuckle Curve (32% usage) projects to .336 xwOBA over 15 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 269 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .267 xwOBA over 117 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (14% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 85 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (8% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 54 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 JS Jesús Sánchez LHB .314
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jesús Sánchez
    • Knuckle Curve (32% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 39 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .325 xwOBA over 394 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 151 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (14% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 158 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (8% usage) projects to .344 xwOBA over 98 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  8. 8 MS Myles Straw RHB .302
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Myles Straw
    • Knuckle Curve (32% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over limited BIP — a roughly even matchup (zone profile imputed from overall vs-handedness wOBA — limited per-pitch-type data).
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 161 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 107 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (14% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 46 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (8% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 43 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 BV Brandon Valenzuela SH .300
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Brandon Valenzuela
    • Knuckle Curve (32% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 3 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 72 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 27 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (14% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 27 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (8% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 16 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

Next scheduled meeting: 2026-08-08 game page →