PREVIEW Starts 12:35 PM ET · PNC Park
September 24, 2026 · NL Cent

St. Louis Cardinals at Pittsburgh Pirates

September 24, 202612:35 PM ETPNC Park
AWAY
St. Louis Cardinals
76-80
—
@
HOME
Pittsburgh Pirates
79-77
—

Probable starters

AWAY · STL
Kyle Leahy
Kyle Leahy
HOME · PIT
Paul Skenes
Paul Skenes

Lineups

Lineups are usually announced ~90 minutes before first pitch. Check back soon.

Hitter season stats

Season-to-date lines for each hitter in the projected lineup, with a Marcel projection (Proj OPS). Season columns are 2026 to date; Proj is a forward-looking estimate, not a result.

AWAY · STL Projected · top 9 by AB
BATTER 2026 SEASON PROJ OPS
AVGOBPSLGOPSHRRBIK
1 Jordan Walker RF · R .274 .332 .474 .806 28 100 167 .728
2 Alec Burleson 1B · L .282 .347 .466 .813 23 111 115 .739
3 Iván Herrera DH · R .247 .358 .388 .746 18 68 127 .752
4 JJ Wetherholt 2B · L .242 .341 .368 .709 17 50 98 .742
5 Masyn Winn SS · R .235 .309 .320 .629 5 55 109 .732
6 Nathan Church CF · L .252 .297 .373 .670 10 50 77 .729
7 José Fermín LF · R .251 .314 .362 .676 6 41 46 .724
8 Nolan Gorman 3B · L .186 .271 .314 .585 9 33 93 .729
9 Pedro Pagés C · R .215 .267 .312 .579 4 12 55 .712
HOME · PIT Projected · top 9 by AB
BATTER 2026 SEASON PROJ OPS
AVGOBPSLGOPSHRRBIK
1 Bryan Reynolds LF · S .262 .365 .423 .788 17 71 158 .730
2 Brandon Lowe 2B · L .262 .332 .492 .824 33 93 184 .730
3 Nick Gonzales 3B · R .302 .365 .389 .754 6 60 97 .719
4 Jake Mangum CF · S .279 .336 .370 .706 5 32 87 .715
5 Ryan O'Hearn RF · L .264 .331 .443 .774 18 73 93 .730
6 Spencer Horwitz 1B · L .248 .346 .367 .713 10 47 69 .737
7 Oneil Cruz CF · L .280 .367 .490 .857 20 67 136 .729
8 Jared Triolo SS · R .241 .311 .307 .618 3 29 69 .712
9 Konnor Griffin SS · R .267 .322 .389 .711 5 31 78 .759

Pitcher vs. lineup projection

Projected expected wOBA for each probable starter against the opposing lineup, by batting order. A season-to-date matchup read — forward-looking, not a result.

STL starter vs Pirates lineup

Kyle Leahy (RHP)

Lineup avg xwOBA .313
  1. 1 BR Bryan Reynolds SH .333
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Bryan Reynolds
    • Four-Seam Fastball (28% usage) projects to .375 xwOBA over 562 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (18% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 276 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (16% usage) projects to .279 xwOBA over 187 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sweeper (14% usage) projects to .340 xwOBA over 120 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 291 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .363 xwOBA over 265 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  2. 2 BL Brandon Lowe SH .328
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Brandon Lowe
    • Four-Seam Fastball (28% usage) projects to .353 xwOBA over 399 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (18% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 244 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (16% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 110 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (14% usage) projects to .285 xwOBA over 102 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .330 xwOBA over 234 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .363 xwOBA over 216 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  3. 3 NG Nick Gonzales RHB .311
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Nick Gonzales
    • Four-Seam Fastball (28% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 336 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (18% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 214 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (16% usage) projects to .286 xwOBA over 77 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (14% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 131 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .327 xwOBA over 107 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 306 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 JM Jake Mangum SH .299
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jake Mangum
    • Four-Seam Fastball (28% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 225 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (18% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 114 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (16% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 69 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (14% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 53 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .271 xwOBA over 115 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 125 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 RO Ryan O'Hearn LHB .319
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Ryan O'Hearn
    • Four-Seam Fastball (28% usage) projects to .342 xwOBA over 450 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (18% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 200 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (16% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 99 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (14% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 74 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 159 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .347 xwOBA over 240 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  6. 6 SH Spencer Horwitz LHB .304
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Spencer Horwitz
    • Four-Seam Fastball (28% usage) projects to .329 xwOBA over 416 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (18% usage) projects to .272 xwOBA over 146 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (16% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 65 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (14% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 80 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 131 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 182 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 OC Oneil Cruz LHB .323
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Oneil Cruz
    • Four-Seam Fastball (28% usage) projects to .378 xwOBA over 379 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (18% usage) projects to .336 xwOBA over 215 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (16% usage) projects to .272 xwOBA over 155 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sweeper (14% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 113 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .271 xwOBA over 194 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 234 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 JT Jared Triolo RHB .295
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jared Triolo
    • Four-Seam Fastball (28% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 374 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (18% usage) projects to .279 xwOBA over 151 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (16% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 61 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (14% usage) projects to .273 xwOBA over 97 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .281 xwOBA over 101 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 257 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 KG Konnor Griffin RHB .308
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Konnor Griffin
    • Four-Seam Fastball (28% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 67 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (18% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 48 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (16% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 15 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (14% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 28 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 36 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 71 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Kyle Leahy vs Pirates: full season matchup breakdown →
PIT starter vs Cardinals lineup

Paul Skenes (RHP)

Lineup avg xwOBA .303
  1. 1 JW Jordan Walker RHB .311
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jordan Walker
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 310 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (15% usage) projects to .286 xwOBA over 146 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (13% usage) projects to .345 xwOBA over 29 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .287 xwOBA over 101 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .349 xwOBA over 233 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (7% usage) projects to .269 xwOBA over 190 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (3% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 71 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 AB Alec Burleson LHB .334
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Alec Burleson
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .359 xwOBA over 526 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (15% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 107 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (13% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 87 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 231 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .380 xwOBA over 274 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (7% usage) projects to .342 xwOBA over 214 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (3% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 128 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 IH Iván Herrera RHB .313
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Iván Herrera
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 389 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (15% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 134 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (13% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 26 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 112 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .327 xwOBA over 281 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (7% usage) projects to .355 xwOBA over 193 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (3% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 90 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 JW JJ Wetherholt LHB .324
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. JJ Wetherholt
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .357 xwOBA over 180 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (15% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 41 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (13% usage) projects to .286 xwOBA over 16 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .276 xwOBA over 56 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 122 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (7% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 63 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (3% usage) projects to .280 xwOBA over 31 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 MW Masyn Winn RHB .298
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Masyn Winn
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 537 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (15% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 141 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (13% usage) projects to .275 xwOBA over 51 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 127 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .331 xwOBA over 279 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (7% usage) projects to .271 xwOBA over 260 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (3% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 96 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 NC Nathan Church LHB .289
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Nathan Church
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .279 xwOBA over 140 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sweeper (15% usage) projects to .287 xwOBA over 39 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (13% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 21 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .278 xwOBA over 80 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 70 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (7% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 69 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (3% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 43 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 JF José Fermín RHB .291
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. José Fermín
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .278 xwOBA over 149 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sweeper (15% usage) projects to .276 xwOBA over 29 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Splitter (13% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 7 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 47 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .333 xwOBA over 107 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (7% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 68 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (3% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 25 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 NG Nolan Gorman LHB .295
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Nolan Gorman
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 361 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (15% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 65 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (13% usage) projects to .266 xwOBA over 46 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .238 xwOBA over 159 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .342 xwOBA over 121 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (7% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 145 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (3% usage) projects to .279 xwOBA over 73 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  9. 9 PP Pedro Pagés RHB .275
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Pedro Pagés
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .272 xwOBA over 204 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sweeper (15% usage) projects to .248 xwOBA over 82 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Splitter (13% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 22 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .260 xwOBA over 82 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 159 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (7% usage) projects to .274 xwOBA over 125 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (3% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 51 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Paul Skenes vs Cardinals: full season matchup breakdown →

Manager comparison

AWAY · STL
Oliver Marmol
Oliver Marmol
Lineup 3.7 R Bunts 2.6 R IBBs 3.1 R
HOME · PIT
Don Kelly
Don Kelly
Lineup 4.4 R Bunts 0.9 R IBBs 3.6 R

Bullpen availability

AWAY · STL
  • Available 8
  • Limited 1
  • Rest required 0
  • Inactive 0
HOME · PIT
  • Available 7
  • Limited 3
  • Rest required 1
  • Inactive 0

Recent form

AWAY · STL
4-6 W1 -12 run diff
WLLLLWWLWL
HOME · PIT
6-4 W4 -5 run diff
WWWWLLWLLW

Season series: 1-2 with STL listed first across 3 prior meetings.

Pitching & bullpen preview

Probable starters and each bullpen's availability load in the sections above — the Cardinals and Pirates staffs going in.

Once the game ends, a full pitching and bullpen breakdown appears here: starter lines, the relief sequence and each arm's role, pitch counts, and where the game turned.

Keep reading

How RunsLeft analyzes games

Standard content on this page comes from the MLB Stats API. The pitching analysis describes how the game was pitched — the starter's line, the bullpen sequence and each arm's role (opener, bulk, setup, closer), pitch counts as a fatigue signal, and the leverage context where the game turned. Reliever roles are inferred from how the manager used each arm up to that date. It describes structure and constraints; it does not grade the manager.

Read the full methodology.

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