September 23, 2026 · NL Cent
St. Louis Cardinals at Pittsburgh Pirates
@
Probable starters
AWAY · STL
HOME
TBD
Lineups
Lineups are usually announced ~90 minutes before first pitch. Check back soon.
Hitter season stats
Season-to-date lines for each hitter in the projected lineup, with a Marcel projection (Proj OPS). Season columns are 2026 to date; Proj is a forward-looking estimate, not a result.
AWAY · STL Projected · top 9 by AB
| BATTER | 2026 SEASON | PROJ OPS | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | HR | RBI | K | ||
| 1 Jordan Walker RF · R | .274 | .332 | .474 | .806 | 28 | 100 | 167 | .728 |
| 2 Alec Burleson 1B · L | .282 | .347 | .466 | .813 | 23 | 111 | 115 | .739 |
| 3 Iván Herrera DH · R | .247 | .358 | .388 | .746 | 18 | 68 | 127 | .752 |
| 4 JJ Wetherholt 2B · L | .242 | .341 | .368 | .709 | 17 | 50 | 98 | .742 |
| 5 Masyn Winn SS · R | .235 | .309 | .320 | .629 | 5 | 55 | 109 | .732 |
| 6 Nathan Church CF · L | .252 | .297 | .373 | .670 | 10 | 50 | 77 | .729 |
| 7 José Fermín LF · R | .251 | .314 | .362 | .676 | 6 | 41 | 46 | .724 |
| 8 Nolan Gorman 3B · L | .186 | .271 | .314 | .585 | 9 | 33 | 93 | .729 |
| 9 Pedro Pagés C · R | .215 | .267 | .312 | .579 | 4 | 12 | 55 | .712 |
HOME · PIT Projected · top 9 by AB
| BATTER | 2026 SEASON | PROJ OPS | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | HR | RBI | K | ||
| 1 Bryan Reynolds LF · S | .262 | .365 | .423 | .788 | 17 | 71 | 158 | .730 |
| 2 Brandon Lowe 2B · L | .262 | .332 | .492 | .824 | 33 | 93 | 184 | .730 |
| 3 Nick Gonzales 3B · R | .302 | .365 | .389 | .754 | 6 | 60 | 97 | .719 |
| 4 Jake Mangum CF · S | .279 | .336 | .370 | .706 | 5 | 32 | 87 | .715 |
| 5 Ryan O'Hearn RF · L | .264 | .331 | .443 | .774 | 18 | 73 | 93 | .730 |
| 6 Spencer Horwitz 1B · L | .248 | .346 | .367 | .713 | 10 | 47 | 69 | .737 |
| 7 Oneil Cruz CF · L | .280 | .367 | .490 | .857 | 20 | 67 | 136 | .729 |
| 8 Jared Triolo SS · R | .241 | .311 | .307 | .618 | 3 | 29 | 69 | .712 |
| 9 Konnor Griffin SS · R | .267 | .322 | .389 | .711 | 5 | 31 | 78 | .759 |
Pitcher vs. lineup projection
Projected expected wOBA for each probable starter against the opposing lineup, by batting order. A season-to-date matchup read — forward-looking, not a result.
-
1 BR Bryan Reynolds SH .321
Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Bryan Reynolds
- Four-Seam Fastball (29% usage) projects to .361 xwOBA over 562 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
- Slider (24% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 276 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Curveball (16% usage) projects to .273 xwOBA over 187 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
- Changeup (12% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 291 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Sinker (11% usage) projects to .363 xwOBA over 265 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
- Cutter (7% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 163 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
-
2 BL Brandon Lowe SH .321
Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Brandon Lowe
- Four-Seam Fastball (29% usage) projects to .348 xwOBA over 399 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
- Slider (24% usage) projects to .266 xwOBA over 244 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
- Curveball (16% usage) projects to .333 xwOBA over 110 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Changeup (12% usage) projects to .332 xwOBA over 234 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Sinker (11% usage) projects to .355 xwOBA over 216 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
- Cutter (7% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 126 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
-
3 NG Nick Gonzales RHB .311
Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Nick Gonzales
- Four-Seam Fastball (29% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 336 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Slider (24% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 214 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Curveball (16% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 77 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Changeup (12% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 107 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Sinker (11% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 306 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Cutter (7% usage) projects to .328 xwOBA over 107 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
-
4 JM Jake Mangum SH .293
Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jake Mangum
- Four-Seam Fastball (29% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 225 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Slider (24% usage) projects to .284 xwOBA over 114 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Curveball (16% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 69 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Changeup (12% usage) projects to .274 xwOBA over 115 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
- Sinker (11% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 125 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Cutter (7% usage) projects to .335 xwOBA over 64 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
-
5 RO Ryan O'Hearn LHB .313
Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Ryan O'Hearn
- Four-Seam Fastball (29% usage) projects to .337 xwOBA over 450 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Slider (24% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 200 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Curveball (16% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 99 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Changeup (12% usage) projects to .282 xwOBA over 159 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Sinker (11% usage) projects to .348 xwOBA over 240 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
- Cutter (7% usage) projects to .280 xwOBA over 109 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
-
6 SH Spencer Horwitz LHB .303
Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Spencer Horwitz
- Four-Seam Fastball (29% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 416 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Slider (24% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 146 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Curveball (16% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 65 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Changeup (12% usage) projects to .282 xwOBA over 131 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Sinker (11% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 182 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Cutter (7% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 103 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
-
7 OC Oneil Cruz LHB .322
Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Oneil Cruz
- Four-Seam Fastball (29% usage) projects to .365 xwOBA over 379 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
- Slider (24% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 215 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Curveball (16% usage) projects to .276 xwOBA over 155 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
- Changeup (12% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 194 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Sinker (11% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 234 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Cutter (7% usage) projects to .371 xwOBA over 108 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
-
8 JT Jared Triolo RHB .302
Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jared Triolo
- Four-Seam Fastball (29% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 374 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Slider (24% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 151 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Curveball (16% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 61 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Changeup (12% usage) projects to .277 xwOBA over 101 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
- Sinker (11% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 257 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Cutter (7% usage) projects to .283 xwOBA over 71 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
-
9 KG Konnor Griffin RHB .310
Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Konnor Griffin
- Four-Seam Fastball (29% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 67 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Slider (24% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 48 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Curveball (16% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 15 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Changeup (12% usage) projects to .287 xwOBA over 36 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Sinker (11% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 71 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Cutter (7% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 20 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Manager comparison
AWAY · STL
Lineup 3.7 R
Bunts 2.6 R
IBBs 3.1 R
HOME · PIT
Lineup 4.4 R
Bunts 0.9 R
IBBs 3.6 R
Bullpen availability
AWAY · STL
- Available 8
- Limited 1
- Rest required 0
- Inactive 0
HOME · PIT
- Available 7
- Limited 3
- Rest required 1
- Inactive 0
Recent form
AWAY · STL
4-6
W1
-12 run diff
WLLLLWWLWL
HOME · PIT
6-4
W4
-5 run diff
WWWWLLWLLW
Season series: 1-2 with STL listed first across 3 prior meetings.
Pitching & bullpen preview
Probable starters and each bullpen's availability load in the sections above — the Cardinals and Pirates staffs going in.
Once the game ends, a full pitching and bullpen breakdown appears here: starter lines, the relief sequence and each arm's role, pitch counts, and where the game turned.
Keep reading
How RunsLeft analyzes games
Standard content on this page comes from the MLB Stats API. The pitching analysis describes how the game was pitched — the starter's line, the bullpen sequence and each arm's role (opener, bulk, setup, closer), pitch counts as a fatigue signal, and the leverage context where the game turned. Reliever roles are inferred from how the manager used each arm up to that date. It describes structure and constraints; it does not grade the manager.