September 22, 2026 · NL Cent
St. Louis Cardinals at Pittsburgh Pirates
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Probable starters
AWAY · STL
HOME · PIT
Lineups
Lineups are usually announced ~90 minutes before first pitch. Check back soon.
Hitter season stats
Season-to-date lines for each hitter in the projected lineup, with a Marcel projection (Proj OPS). Season columns are 2026 to date; Proj is a forward-looking estimate, not a result.
AWAY · STL Projected · top 9 by AB
| BATTER | 2026 SEASON | PROJ OPS | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | HR | RBI | K | ||
| 1 Jordan Walker RF · R | .274 | .332 | .474 | .806 | 28 | 100 | 167 | .728 |
| 2 Alec Burleson 1B · L | .282 | .347 | .466 | .813 | 23 | 111 | 115 | .739 |
| 3 Iván Herrera DH · R | .247 | .358 | .388 | .746 | 18 | 68 | 127 | .752 |
| 4 JJ Wetherholt 2B · L | .242 | .341 | .368 | .709 | 17 | 50 | 98 | .742 |
| 5 Masyn Winn SS · R | .235 | .309 | .320 | .629 | 5 | 55 | 109 | .732 |
| 6 Nathan Church CF · L | .252 | .297 | .373 | .670 | 10 | 50 | 77 | .729 |
| 7 José Fermín LF · R | .251 | .314 | .362 | .676 | 6 | 41 | 46 | .724 |
| 8 Nolan Gorman 3B · L | .186 | .271 | .314 | .585 | 9 | 33 | 93 | .729 |
| 9 Pedro Pagés C · R | .215 | .267 | .312 | .579 | 4 | 12 | 55 | .712 |
HOME · PIT Projected · top 9 by AB
| BATTER | 2026 SEASON | PROJ OPS | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | HR | RBI | K | ||
| 1 Bryan Reynolds LF · S | .262 | .365 | .423 | .788 | 17 | 71 | 158 | .730 |
| 2 Brandon Lowe 2B · L | .262 | .332 | .492 | .824 | 33 | 93 | 184 | .730 |
| 3 Nick Gonzales 3B · R | .302 | .365 | .389 | .754 | 6 | 60 | 97 | .719 |
| 4 Jake Mangum CF · S | .279 | .336 | .370 | .706 | 5 | 32 | 87 | .715 |
| 5 Ryan O'Hearn RF · L | .264 | .331 | .443 | .774 | 18 | 73 | 93 | .730 |
| 6 Spencer Horwitz 1B · L | .248 | .346 | .367 | .713 | 10 | 47 | 69 | .737 |
| 7 Oneil Cruz CF · L | .280 | .367 | .490 | .857 | 20 | 67 | 136 | .729 |
| 8 Jared Triolo SS · R | .241 | .311 | .307 | .618 | 3 | 29 | 69 | .712 |
| 9 Konnor Griffin SS · R | .267 | .322 | .389 | .711 | 5 | 31 | 78 | .759 |
Pitcher vs. lineup projection
Projected expected wOBA for each probable starter against the opposing lineup, by batting order. A season-to-date matchup read — forward-looking, not a result.
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1 BR Bryan Reynolds SH .336
Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Bryan Reynolds
- Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .379 xwOBA over 562 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
- Slider (28% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 276 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Sinker (16% usage) projects to .360 xwOBA over 265 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
- Knuckle Curve (15% usage) projects to .278 xwOBA over 44 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
-
2 BL Brandon Lowe SH .334
Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Brandon Lowe
- Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .380 xwOBA over 399 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
- Slider (28% usage) projects to .283 xwOBA over 244 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Sinker (16% usage) projects to .345 xwOBA over 216 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
- Knuckle Curve (15% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 33 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
-
3 NG Nick Gonzales RHB .319
Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Nick Gonzales
- Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .334 xwOBA over 336 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Slider (28% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 214 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Sinker (16% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 306 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Knuckle Curve (15% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 22 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
-
4 JM Jake Mangum SH .305
Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jake Mangum
- Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 225 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Slider (28% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 114 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Sinker (16% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 125 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Knuckle Curve (15% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 19 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
-
5 RO Ryan O'Hearn LHB .334
Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Ryan O'Hearn
- Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .356 xwOBA over 450 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
- Slider (28% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 200 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Sinker (16% usage) projects to .378 xwOBA over 240 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
- Knuckle Curve (15% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 31 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
-
6 SH Spencer Horwitz LHB .307
Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Spencer Horwitz
- Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 416 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Slider (28% usage) projects to .280 xwOBA over 146 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Sinker (16% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 182 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Knuckle Curve (15% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 20 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
-
7 OC Oneil Cruz LHB .337
Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Oneil Cruz
- Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .373 xwOBA over 379 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
- Slider (28% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 215 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Sinker (16% usage) projects to .325 xwOBA over 234 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Knuckle Curve (15% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 45 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
-
8 JT Jared Triolo RHB .310
Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jared Triolo
- Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 374 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Slider (28% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 151 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Sinker (16% usage) projects to .326 xwOBA over 257 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Knuckle Curve (15% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 11 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
-
9 KG Konnor Griffin RHB .308
Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Konnor Griffin
- Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 67 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Slider (28% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 48 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Sinker (16% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 71 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Knuckle Curve (15% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 4 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
-
1 JW Jordan Walker RHB .300
Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jordan Walker
- Four-Seam Fastball (47% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 308 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Slider (35% usage) projects to .275 xwOBA over 189 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
- Changeup (10% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 100 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Curveball (8% usage) projects to .327 xwOBA over 71 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
-
2 AB Alec Burleson LHB .346
Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Alec Burleson
- Four-Seam Fastball (47% usage) projects to .360 xwOBA over 525 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
- Slider (35% usage) projects to .342 xwOBA over 213 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
- Changeup (10% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 231 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Curveball (8% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 126 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
-
3 IH Iván Herrera RHB .327
Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Iván Herrera
- Four-Seam Fastball (47% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 386 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Slider (35% usage) projects to .346 xwOBA over 193 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
- Changeup (10% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 112 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Curveball (8% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 90 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
-
4 JW JJ Wetherholt LHB .331
Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. JJ Wetherholt
- Four-Seam Fastball (47% usage) projects to .364 xwOBA over 178 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
- Slider (35% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 63 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Changeup (10% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 56 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Curveball (8% usage) projects to .279 xwOBA over 29 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
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5 MW Masyn Winn RHB .297
Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Masyn Winn
- Four-Seam Fastball (47% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 537 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Slider (35% usage) projects to .270 xwOBA over 260 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
- Changeup (10% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 127 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Curveball (8% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 96 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
-
6 NC Nathan Church LHB .296
Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Nathan Church
- Four-Seam Fastball (47% usage) projects to .279 xwOBA over 139 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
- Slider (35% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 69 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Changeup (10% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 80 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Curveball (8% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 41 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
-
7 JF José Fermín RHB .284
Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. José Fermín
- Four-Seam Fastball (47% usage) projects to .273 xwOBA over 148 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
- Slider (35% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 68 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Changeup (10% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 46 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Curveball (8% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 25 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
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8 NG Nolan Gorman LHB .305
Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Nolan Gorman
- Four-Seam Fastball (47% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 361 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Slider (35% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 145 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Changeup (10% usage) projects to .253 xwOBA over 159 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
- Curveball (8% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 73 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
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9 PP Pedro Pagés RHB .279
Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Pedro Pagés
- Four-Seam Fastball (47% usage) projects to .284 xwOBA over 204 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Slider (35% usage) projects to .273 xwOBA over 125 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
- Changeup (10% usage) projects to .257 xwOBA over 82 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
- Curveball (8% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 51 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Manager comparison
AWAY · STL
Lineup 3.7 R
Bunts 2.6 R
IBBs 3.1 R
HOME · PIT
Lineup 4.4 R
Bunts 0.9 R
IBBs 3.6 R
Bullpen availability
AWAY · STL
- Available 8
- Limited 1
- Rest required 0
- Inactive 0
HOME · PIT
- Available 7
- Limited 3
- Rest required 1
- Inactive 0
Recent form
AWAY · STL
4-6
W1
-12 run diff
WLLLLWWLWL
HOME · PIT
6-4
W4
-5 run diff
WWWWLLWLLW
Season series: 1-2 with STL listed first across 3 prior meetings.
Pitching & bullpen preview
Probable starters and each bullpen's availability load in the sections above — the Cardinals and Pirates staffs going in.
Once the game ends, a full pitching and bullpen breakdown appears here: starter lines, the relief sequence and each arm's role, pitch counts, and where the game turned.
Keep reading
How RunsLeft analyzes games
Standard content on this page comes from the MLB Stats API. The pitching analysis describes how the game was pitched — the starter's line, the bullpen sequence and each arm's role (opener, bulk, setup, closer), pitch counts as a fatigue signal, and the leverage context where the game turned. Reliever roles are inferred from how the manager used each arm up to that date. It describes structure and constraints; it does not grade the manager.