PREVIEW Starts 9:40 PM ET · T-Mobile Park
September 22, 2026 · AL West

Houston Astros at Seattle Mariners

September 22, 20269:40 PM ETT-Mobile Park
AWAY
Houston Astros
77-79
—
@
HOME
Seattle Mariners
73-83
—

Probable starters

AWAY · HOU
Cristian Javier
Cristian Javier
HOME · SEA
Logan Gilbert
Logan Gilbert

Lineups

Lineups are usually announced ~90 minutes before first pitch. Check back soon.

Hitter season stats

Season-to-date lines for each hitter in the projected lineup, with a Marcel projection (Proj OPS). Season columns are 2026 to date; Proj is a forward-looking estimate, not a result.

AWAY · HOU Projected · top 9 by AB
BATTER 2026 SEASON PROJ OPS
AVGOBPSLGOPSHRRBIK
1 Christian Walker 1B · R .221 .294 .407 .701 25 80 142 .723
2 Yordan Alvarez DH · L .313 .430 .597 1.027 40 99 115 .772
3 Isaac Paredes 3B · R .260 .358 .434 .792 22 90 85 .749
4 Jose Altuve 2B · R .249 .307 .402 .709 16 45 107 .731
5 Cam Smith RF · R .209 .274 .389 .663 20 54 140 .739
6 Daulton Varsho CF · L .221 .281 .355 .636 12 40 107 .719
7 Jeremy Peña SS · R .275 .325 .472 .797 20 51 109 .736
8 Yainer Diaz C · R .278 .309 .446 .755 13 40 52 .734
9 Taylor Trammell LF · L .202 .290 .360 .650 8 22 85 .715
HOME · SEA Projected · top 9 by AB
BATTER 2026 SEASON PROJ OPS
AVGOBPSLGOPSHRRBIK
1 Julio Rodríguez CF · R .243 .304 .397 .701 21 66 141 .760
2 Josh Naylor 1B · L .268 .323 .359 .682 10 54 77 .747
3 Cole Young 2B · L .246 .307 .385 .692 17 65 104 .737
4 Randy Arozarena LF · R .279 .376 .481 .857 26 76 137 .728
5 Taylor Ward DH · R .222 .358 .309 .667 7 35 130 .729
6 Dominic Canzone DH · L .261 .333 .485 .818 22 72 107 .724
7 Cal Raleigh C · S .182 .294 .376 .670 23 68 160 .759
8 J.P. Crawford SS · L .222 .338 .352 .690 13 38 93 .717
9 Weston Wilson 3B · R .213 .295 .323 .618 4 13 53 .715

Pitcher vs. lineup projection

Projected expected wOBA for each probable starter against the opposing lineup, by batting order. A season-to-date matchup read — forward-looking, not a result.

HOU starter vs Mariners lineup

Cristian Javier (RHP)

Lineup avg xwOBA .321
  1. 1 JR Julio Rodríguez RHB .320
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Julio Rodríguez
    • Four-Seam Fastball (44% usage) projects to .341 xwOBA over 494 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (26% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 170 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (18% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 193 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (5% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 29 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (4% usage) projects to .351 xwOBA over 418 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (3% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 139 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 JN Josh Naylor LHB .327
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Josh Naylor
    • Four-Seam Fastball (44% usage) projects to .342 xwOBA over 535 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (26% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 117 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (18% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 245 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (5% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 28 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (4% usage) projects to .332 xwOBA over 315 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (3% usage) projects to .343 xwOBA over 138 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  3. 3 CY Cole Young LHB .305
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Cole Young
    • Four-Seam Fastball (44% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 276 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (26% usage) projects to .277 xwOBA over 53 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (18% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 100 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (5% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 9 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (4% usage) projects to .336 xwOBA over 146 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (3% usage) projects to .278 xwOBA over 73 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  4. 4 RA Randy Arozarena RHB .328
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Randy Arozarena
    • Four-Seam Fastball (44% usage) projects to .346 xwOBA over 581 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (26% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 187 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (18% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 207 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (5% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 28 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (4% usage) projects to .369 xwOBA over 368 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (3% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 135 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 TW Taylor Ward RHB .322
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Taylor Ward
    • Four-Seam Fastball (44% usage) projects to .360 xwOBA over 558 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (26% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 166 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (18% usage) projects to .270 xwOBA over 150 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Knuckle Curve (5% usage) projects to .286 xwOBA over 30 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (4% usage) projects to .383 xwOBA over 390 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (3% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 150 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 DC Dominic Canzone LHB .342
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Dominic Canzone
    • Four-Seam Fastball (44% usage) projects to .390 xwOBA over 257 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (26% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 51 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (18% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 139 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (5% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 17 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (4% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 136 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (3% usage) projects to .392 xwOBA over 67 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  7. 7 CR Cal Raleigh SH .327
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Cal Raleigh
    • Four-Seam Fastball (44% usage) projects to .329 xwOBA over 637 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (26% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 69 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (18% usage) projects to .325 xwOBA over 312 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (5% usage) projects to .326 xwOBA over 36 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (4% usage) projects to .394 xwOBA over 173 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (3% usage) projects to .349 xwOBA over 138 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  8. 8 JC J.P. Crawford LHB .320
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. J.P. Crawford
    • Four-Seam Fastball (44% usage) projects to .349 xwOBA over 538 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (26% usage) projects to .280 xwOBA over 99 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (18% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 125 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (5% usage) projects to .270 xwOBA over 31 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (4% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 286 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (3% usage) projects to .280 xwOBA over 133 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 WW Weston Wilson RHB .297
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Weston Wilson
    • Four-Seam Fastball (44% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 126 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (26% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 22 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (18% usage) projects to .270 xwOBA over 53 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Knuckle Curve (5% usage) projects to .287 xwOBA over 6 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (4% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 58 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (3% usage) projects to .355 xwOBA over 34 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
Cristian Javier vs Mariners: full season matchup breakdown →
SEA starter vs Astros lineup

Logan Gilbert (RHP)

Lineup avg xwOBA .319
  1. 1 CW Christian Walker RHB .298
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Christian Walker
    • Four-Seam Fastball (38% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 501 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (29% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 272 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (16% usage) projects to .285 xwOBA over 39 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (7% usage) projects to .255 xwOBA over 107 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (4% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 123 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (4% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 172 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 YA Yordan Alvarez SH .391
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Yordan Alvarez
    • Four-Seam Fastball (38% usage) projects to .427 xwOBA over 427 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (29% usage) projects to .385 xwOBA over 184 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Splitter (16% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 73 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (7% usage) projects to .426 xwOBA over 95 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (4% usage) projects to .376 xwOBA over 124 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (4% usage) projects to .380 xwOBA over 158 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  3. 3 IP Isaac Paredes RHB .307
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Isaac Paredes
    • Four-Seam Fastball (38% usage) projects to .338 xwOBA over 496 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (29% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 227 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (16% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 51 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (7% usage) projects to .261 xwOBA over 91 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (4% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 117 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (4% usage) projects to .286 xwOBA over 163 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 JA Jose Altuve RHB .298
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jose Altuve
    • Four-Seam Fastball (38% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 475 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (29% usage) projects to .275 xwOBA over 339 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Splitter (16% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 49 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (7% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 85 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (4% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 144 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (4% usage) projects to .271 xwOBA over 170 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  5. 5 CS Cam Smith RHB .316
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Cam Smith
    • Four-Seam Fastball (38% usage) projects to .335 xwOBA over 247 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (29% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 148 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (16% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 33 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (7% usage) projects to .330 xwOBA over 44 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (4% usage) projects to .351 xwOBA over 68 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (4% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 97 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 DV Daulton Varsho LHB .306
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Daulton Varsho
    • Four-Seam Fastball (38% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 437 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (29% usage) projects to .283 xwOBA over 147 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (16% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 46 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (7% usage) projects to .271 xwOBA over 78 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (4% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 124 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (4% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 153 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 JP Jeremy Peña RHB .329
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jeremy Peña
    • Four-Seam Fastball (38% usage) projects to .386 xwOBA over 373 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (29% usage) projects to .284 xwOBA over 307 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (16% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 43 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (7% usage) projects to .282 xwOBA over 80 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (4% usage) projects to .360 xwOBA over 135 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (4% usage) projects to .286 xwOBA over 142 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 YD Yainer Diaz RHB .333
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Yainer Diaz
    • Four-Seam Fastball (38% usage) projects to .338 xwOBA over 315 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (29% usage) projects to .346 xwOBA over 286 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Splitter (16% usage) projects to .331 xwOBA over 45 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (7% usage) projects to .274 xwOBA over 102 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (4% usage) projects to .342 xwOBA over 114 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (4% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 176 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 TT Taylor Trammell LHB .295
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Taylor Trammell
    • Four-Seam Fastball (38% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 156 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (29% usage) projects to .283 xwOBA over 41 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (16% usage) projects to .282 xwOBA over 15 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (7% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 25 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (4% usage) projects to .349 xwOBA over 26 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (4% usage) projects to .279 xwOBA over 55 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
Logan Gilbert vs Astros: full season matchup breakdown →

Manager comparison

AWAY · HOU
Joe Espada
Joe Espada
Lineup 5.5 R Bunts 2.3 R IBBs 0.7 R
HOME · SEA
Dan Wilson
Dan Wilson
Lineup 3.1 R Bunts 1.4 R IBBs 3.7 R

Bullpen availability

AWAY · HOU
  • Available 5
  • Limited 2
  • Rest required 0
  • Inactive 0
HOME · SEA
  • Available 9
  • Limited 0
  • Rest required 0
  • Inactive 0

Recent form

AWAY · HOU
3-7 L3 -18 run diff
LLLWLWLLLW
HOME · SEA
5-5 W1 +19 run diff
WLWWLLLWLW

Pitching & bullpen preview

Probable starters and each bullpen's availability load in the sections above — the Astros and Mariners staffs going in.

Once the game ends, a full pitching and bullpen breakdown appears here: starter lines, the relief sequence and each arm's role, pitch counts, and where the game turned.

Keep reading

How RunsLeft analyzes games

Standard content on this page comes from the MLB Stats API. The pitching analysis describes how the game was pitched — the starter's line, the bullpen sequence and each arm's role (opener, bulk, setup, closer), pitch counts as a fatigue signal, and the leverage context where the game turned. Reliever roles are inferred from how the manager used each arm up to that date. It describes structure and constraints; it does not grade the manager.

Read the full methodology.

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