September 21, 2026 · AL East
Toronto Blue Jays at Baltimore Orioles
@
Probable starters
AWAY · TOR
HOME · BAL
Lineups
Lineups are usually announced ~90 minutes before first pitch. Check back soon.
Hitter season stats
Season-to-date lines for each hitter in the projected lineup, with a Marcel projection (Proj OPS). Season columns are 2026 to date; Proj is a forward-looking estimate, not a result.
AWAY · TOR Projected · top 9 by AB
| BATTER | 2026 SEASON | PROJ OPS | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | HR | RBI | K | ||
| 1 Ernie Clement 2B · R | .265 | .291 | .372 | .663 | 9 | 48 | 56 | .715 |
| 2 Kazuma Okamoto 3B · R | .235 | .310 | .459 | .769 | 33 | 89 | 177 | .718 |
| 3 Vladimir Guerrero Jr. 1B · R | .263 | .336 | .359 | .695 | 9 | 56 | 78 | .779 |
| 4 Andrés Giménez SS · L | .242 | .287 | .356 | .643 | 9 | 58 | 92 | .704 |
| 5 George Springer DH · R | .248 | .323 | .407 | .730 | 15 | 53 | 91 | .728 |
| 6 Nathan Lukes RF · L | .274 | .322 | .387 | .709 | 10 | 39 | 63 | .716 |
| 7 Myles Straw CF · R | .238 | .304 | .345 | .649 | 3 | 26 | 41 | .702 |
| 8 Alejandro Kirk C · R | .282 | .353 | .424 | .777 | 10 | 42 | 36 | .730 |
| 9 Brandon Valenzuela C · S | .219 | .304 | .361 | .665 | 8 | 21 | 68 | .737 |
HOME · BAL Projected · top 9 by AB
| BATTER | 2026 SEASON | PROJ OPS | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | HR | RBI | K | ||
| 1 Gunnar Henderson SS · L | .223 | .308 | .397 | .705 | 23 | 58 | 151 | .776 |
| 2 Pete Alonso 1B · R | .264 | .358 | .500 | .858 | 38 | 105 | 163 | .753 |
| 3 Leody Taveras CF · S | .216 | .286 | .339 | .625 | 8 | 54 | 124 | .708 |
| 4 Coby Mayo 3B · R | .229 | .298 | .471 | .769 | 24 | 63 | 130 | .734 |
| 5 Samuel Basallo C · L | .223 | .292 | .408 | .700 | 18 | 54 | 104 | .744 |
| 6 Colton Cowser CF · L | .224 | .313 | .367 | .680 | 13 | 39 | 118 | .729 |
| 7 Dylan Beavers LF · L | .234 | .310 | .368 | .678 | 7 | 39 | 90 | .740 |
| 8 Jeremiah Jackson 2B · R | .221 | .247 | .366 | .613 | 9 | 43 | 63 | .736 |
| 9 Carlos Narváez C · R | .167 | .245 | .233 | .478 | 3 | 10 | 90 | .729 |
Pitcher vs. lineup projection
Projected expected wOBA for each probable starter against the opposing lineup, by batting order. A season-to-date matchup read — forward-looking, not a result.
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1 GH Gunnar Henderson LHB .337
Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Gunnar Henderson
- Four-Seam Fastball (47% usage) projects to .348 xwOBA over 563 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
- Splitter (28% usage) projects to .353 xwOBA over 98 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
- Slider (25% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 257 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
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2 PA Pete Alonso RHB .354
Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Pete Alonso
- Four-Seam Fastball (47% usage) projects to .386 xwOBA over 542 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
- Splitter (28% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 54 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Slider (25% usage) projects to .354 xwOBA over 320 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
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3 LT Leody Taveras SH .285
Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Leody Taveras
- Four-Seam Fastball (47% usage) projects to .268 xwOBA over 401 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
- Splitter (28% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 63 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Slider (25% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 103 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
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4 CM Coby Mayo RHB .318
Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Coby Mayo
- Four-Seam Fastball (47% usage) projects to .339 xwOBA over 215 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Splitter (28% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 12 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Slider (25% usage) projects to .278 xwOBA over 136 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
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5 SB Samuel Basallo LHB .317
Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Samuel Basallo
- Four-Seam Fastball (47% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 148 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Splitter (28% usage) projects to .339 xwOBA over 27 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Slider (25% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 67 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
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6 CC Colton Cowser LHB .317
Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Colton Cowser
- Four-Seam Fastball (47% usage) projects to .344 xwOBA over 391 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
- Splitter (28% usage) projects to .251 xwOBA over 81 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
- Slider (25% usage) projects to .341 xwOBA over 160 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
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7 DB Dylan Beavers LHB .311
Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Dylan Beavers
- Four-Seam Fastball (47% usage) projects to .330 xwOBA over 153 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Splitter (28% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 11 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Slider (25% usage) projects to .285 xwOBA over 50 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
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8 JJ Jeremiah Jackson RHB .295
Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jeremiah Jackson
- Four-Seam Fastball (47% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 100 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Splitter (28% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 10 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Slider (25% usage) projects to .270 xwOBA over 90 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
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9 CN Carlos Narváez RHB .288
Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Carlos Narváez
- Four-Seam Fastball (47% usage) projects to .276 xwOBA over 241 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
- Splitter (28% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 19 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Slider (25% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 115 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
-
1 EC Ernie Clement SH .290
Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Ernie Clement
- Four-Seam Fastball (39% usage) projects to .282 xwOBA over 409 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Knuckle Curve (29% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 26 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Cutter (14% usage) projects to .280 xwOBA over 137 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Changeup (10% usage) projects to .285 xwOBA over 183 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Sinker (5% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 305 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Slider (3% usage) projects to .263 xwOBA over 246 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
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2 KO Kazuma Okamoto RHB .330
Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Kazuma Okamoto
- Four-Seam Fastball (39% usage) projects to .348 xwOBA over 163 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
- Knuckle Curve (29% usage) projects to .340 xwOBA over 9 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
- Cutter (14% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 46 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Changeup (10% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 55 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Sinker (5% usage) projects to .341 xwOBA over 115 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
- Slider (3% usage) projects to .330 xwOBA over 89 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
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3 VG Vladimir Guerrero Jr. RHB .348
Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
- Four-Seam Fastball (39% usage) projects to .379 xwOBA over 449 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
- Knuckle Curve (29% usage) projects to .326 xwOBA over 36 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Cutter (14% usage) projects to .340 xwOBA over 178 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
- Changeup (10% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 210 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Sinker (5% usage) projects to .340 xwOBA over 456 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
- Slider (3% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 272 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
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4 AG Andrés Giménez LHB .294
Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Andrés Giménez
- Four-Seam Fastball (39% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 454 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Knuckle Curve (29% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 34 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Cutter (14% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 116 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Changeup (10% usage) projects to .277 xwOBA over 171 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
- Sinker (5% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 226 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Slider (3% usage) projects to .267 xwOBA over 204 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
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5 GS George Springer RHB .338
Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. George Springer
- Four-Seam Fastball (39% usage) projects to .353 xwOBA over 438 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
- Knuckle Curve (29% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 14 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Cutter (14% usage) projects to .373 xwOBA over 149 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
- Changeup (10% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 159 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Sinker (5% usage) projects to .344 xwOBA over 369 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
- Slider (3% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 262 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
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6 NL Nathan Lukes LHB .313
Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Nathan Lukes
- Four-Seam Fastball (39% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 313 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Knuckle Curve (29% usage) projects to .332 xwOBA over 16 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Cutter (14% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 65 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Changeup (10% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 99 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Sinker (5% usage) projects to .278 xwOBA over 144 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
- Slider (3% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 92 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
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7 MS Myles Straw RHB .303
Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Myles Straw
- Four-Seam Fastball (39% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 190 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Knuckle Curve (29% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 7 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Cutter (14% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 50 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Changeup (10% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 56 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Sinker (5% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 132 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Slider (3% usage) projects to .281 xwOBA over 85 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
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8 AK Alejandro Kirk RHB .335
Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Alejandro Kirk
- Four-Seam Fastball (39% usage) projects to .366 xwOBA over 274 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
- Knuckle Curve (29% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 16 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Cutter (14% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 90 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Changeup (10% usage) projects to .348 xwOBA over 106 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
- Sinker (5% usage) projects to .348 xwOBA over 276 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
- Slider (3% usage) projects to .326 xwOBA over 194 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
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9 BV Brandon Valenzuela SH .300
Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Brandon Valenzuela
- Four-Seam Fastball (39% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 94 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Knuckle Curve (29% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 4 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Cutter (14% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 21 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Changeup (10% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 34 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Sinker (5% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 29 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Slider (3% usage) projects to .338 xwOBA over 21 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Manager comparison
AWAY · TOR
Lineup 2.5 R
Bunts 5.3 R
IBBs 6.9 R
HOME · BAL
Lineup 3.3 R
Bunts 1.5 R
IBBs 3.9 R
Bullpen availability
AWAY · TOR
- Available 5
- Limited 4
- Rest required 1
- Inactive 0
HOME · BAL
- Available 7
- Limited 3
- Rest required 0
- Inactive 0
Recent form
AWAY · TOR
4-6
W1
-5 run diff
WLLWLLWWLL
HOME · BAL
5-5
L3
+0 run diff
LLLWWWLLWW
Season series: 2-1 with TOR listed first across 3 prior meetings.
Pitching & bullpen preview
Probable starters and each bullpen's availability load in the sections above — the Blue Jays and Orioles staffs going in.
Once the game ends, a full pitching and bullpen breakdown appears here: starter lines, the relief sequence and each arm's role, pitch counts, and where the game turned.
Keep reading
How RunsLeft analyzes games
Standard content on this page comes from the MLB Stats API. The pitching analysis describes how the game was pitched — the starter's line, the bullpen sequence and each arm's role (opener, bulk, setup, closer), pitch counts as a fatigue signal, and the leverage context where the game turned. Reliever roles are inferred from how the manager used each arm up to that date. It describes structure and constraints; it does not grade the manager.