New York Mets at Pittsburgh Pirates Preview — August 9, 2026

Probable starters

AWAY · NYM

Sean Manaea

HOME · PIT

Jared Jones

Lineups

Lineups are usually announced ~90 minutes before first pitch. Check back soon.

Hitter season stats

Season-to-date lines for each hitter in the projected lineup, with a Marcel projection (Proj OPS). Season columns are 2026 to date; Proj is a forward-looking estimate, not a result.

AWAY · NYM Projected · top 9 by AB

BATTER	2026 SEASON							PROJ OPS
BATTER	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	HR	RBI	K	PROJ OPS
1 Bo Bichette 3B · R	.257	.301	.370	.671	11	56	93	.742
2 Carson Benge RF · L	.267	.327	.410	.737	13	44	101	.746
3 Marcus Semien 2B · R	.214	.274	.359	.633	13	37	83	.709
4 Brett Baty 3B · L	.219	.290	.330	.620	7	34	99	.725
5 A.J. Ewing CF · L	.262	.328	.399	.727	7	28	78	.755
6 Francisco Alvarez C · R	.251	.338	.431	.769	12	28	79	.746
7 Francisco Lindor SS · S	.230	.311	.422	.733	10	28	51	.749
8 Luis Torrens C · R	.234	.300	.359	.659	4	27	42	.708
9 Jared Young 1B · L	.253	.336	.430	.766	7	22	41	.716

HOME · PIT Projected · top 9 by AB

BATTER	2026 SEASON							PROJ OPS
BATTER	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	HR	RBI	K	PROJ OPS
1 Bryan Reynolds LF · S	.266	.377	.441	.818	15	63	125	.730
2 Brandon Lowe 2B · L	.255	.321	.486	.807	24	72	134	.730
3 Nick Gonzales 3B · R	.309	.362	.399	.761	6	50	79	.719
4 Jake Mangum CF · S	.298	.352	.374	.726	3	24	61	.715
5 Spencer Horwitz 1B · L	.271	.375	.439	.814	10	37	45	.737
6 Jared Triolo SS · R	.239	.316	.304	.620	1	20	56	.712
7 Henry Davis C · R	.170	.268	.315	.583	8	30	48	.707
8 Esmerlyn Valdez RF · R	.248	.364	.595	.959	14	38	68	.750
9 Endy Rodríguez C · S	.269	.376	.470	.846	7	20	41	.724

Pitcher vs. lineup projection

Projected expected wOBA for each probable starter against the opposing lineup, by batting order. A season-to-date matchup read — forward-looking, not a result.

NYM starter vs Pirates lineup

Sean Manaea (LHP)

Lineup avg xwOBA .310

1 BR Bryan Reynolds SH .345
Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Bryan Reynolds
- Four-Seam Fastball (41% usage) projects to .348 xwOBA over 525 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
- Sweeper (29% usage) projects to .342 xwOBA over 109 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
- Sinker (17% usage) projects to .356 xwOBA over 237 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
- Changeup (6% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 264 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Cutter (6% usage) projects to .334 xwOBA over 148 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
2 BL Brandon Lowe SH .331
Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Brandon Lowe
- Four-Seam Fastball (41% usage) projects to .355 xwOBA over 369 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
- Sweeper (29% usage) projects to .279 xwOBA over 90 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
- Sinker (17% usage) projects to .373 xwOBA over 185 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
- Changeup (6% usage) projects to .328 xwOBA over 211 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Cutter (6% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 112 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
3 NG Nick Gonzales RHB .312
Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Nick Gonzales
- Four-Seam Fastball (41% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 302 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Sweeper (29% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 118 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Sinker (17% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 276 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Changeup (6% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 95 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Cutter (6% usage) projects to .330 xwOBA over 93 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
4 JM Jake Mangum SH .303
Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jake Mangum
- Four-Seam Fastball (41% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 185 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Sweeper (29% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 47 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Sinker (17% usage) projects to .285 xwOBA over 105 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Changeup (6% usage) projects to .275 xwOBA over 105 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
- Cutter (6% usage) projects to .349 xwOBA over 51 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
5 SH Spencer Horwitz LHB .306
Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Spencer Horwitz
- Four-Seam Fastball (41% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 377 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Sweeper (29% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 65 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Sinker (17% usage) projects to .325 xwOBA over 160 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Changeup (6% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 124 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Cutter (6% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 95 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
6 JT Jared Triolo RHB .292
Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jared Triolo
- Four-Seam Fastball (41% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 357 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Sweeper (29% usage) projects to .264 xwOBA over 87 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
- Sinker (17% usage) projects to .330 xwOBA over 224 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Changeup (6% usage) projects to .268 xwOBA over 89 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
- Cutter (6% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 67 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
7 HD Henry Davis RHB .280
Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Henry Davis
- Four-Seam Fastball (41% usage) projects to .260 xwOBA over 201 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
- Sweeper (29% usage) projects to .283 xwOBA over 49 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Sinker (17% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 120 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Changeup (6% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 42 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Cutter (6% usage) projects to .287 xwOBA over 36 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
8 EV Esmerlyn Valdez RHB .305
Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Esmerlyn Valdez
- Four-Seam Fastball (41% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 49 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Sweeper (29% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 17 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Sinker (17% usage) projects to .331 xwOBA over 28 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Changeup (6% usage) projects to .281 xwOBA over 21 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Cutter (6% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 7 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
9 ER Endy Rodríguez SH .312
Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Endy Rodríguez
- Four-Seam Fastball (41% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 77 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Sweeper (29% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 17 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Sinker (17% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 19 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Changeup (6% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 21 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Cutter (6% usage) projects to .344 xwOBA over 17 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.

Sean Manaea vs Pirates: full season matchup breakdown →

PIT starter vs Mets lineup

Jared Jones (RHP)

Lineup avg xwOBA .319

1 BB Bo Bichette RHB .330
Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Bo Bichette
- Four-Seam Fastball (47% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 327 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Slider (35% usage) projects to .341 xwOBA over 266 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
- Changeup (11% usage) projects to .327 xwOBA over 127 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Curveball (8% usage) projects to .341 xwOBA over 72 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
2 CB Carson Benge LHB .330
Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Carson Benge
- Four-Seam Fastball (47% usage) projects to .343 xwOBA over 143 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
- Slider (35% usage) projects to .325 xwOBA over 50 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Changeup (11% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 45 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Curveball (8% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 31 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
3 MS Marcus Semien RHB .292
Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Marcus Semien
- Four-Seam Fastball (47% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 495 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Slider (35% usage) projects to .248 xwOBA over 271 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
- Changeup (11% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 133 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Curveball (8% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 64 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
4 BB Brett Baty LHB .315
Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Brett Baty
- Four-Seam Fastball (47% usage) projects to .328 xwOBA over 340 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Slider (35% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 108 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Changeup (11% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 113 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Curveball (8% usage) projects to .331 xwOBA over 60 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
5 AE A.J. Ewing LHB .315
Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. A.J. Ewing
- Four-Seam Fastball (47% usage) projects to .346 xwOBA over 77 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
- Slider (35% usage) projects to .287 xwOBA over 33 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Changeup (11% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 37 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Curveball (8% usage) projects to .280 xwOBA over 17 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
6 FA Francisco Alvarez RHB .318
Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Francisco Alvarez
- Four-Seam Fastball (47% usage) projects to .357 xwOBA over 232 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
- Slider (35% usage) projects to .275 xwOBA over 155 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
- Changeup (11% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 64 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Curveball (8% usage) projects to .272 xwOBA over 49 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
7 FL Francisco Lindor SH .330
Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Francisco Lindor
- Four-Seam Fastball (47% usage) projects to .366 xwOBA over 560 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
- Slider (35% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 198 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Changeup (11% usage) projects to .280 xwOBA over 220 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Curveball (8% usage) projects to .281 xwOBA over 135 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
8 LT Luis Torrens RHB .313
Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Luis Torrens
- Four-Seam Fastball (47% usage) projects to .332 xwOBA over 148 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Slider (35% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 112 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Changeup (11% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 51 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Curveball (8% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 40 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
9 JY Jared Young LHB .329
Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jared Young
- Four-Seam Fastball (47% usage) projects to .341 xwOBA over 72 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
- Slider (35% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 28 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Changeup (11% usage) projects to .328 xwOBA over 24 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Curveball (8% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 22 BIP — a roughly even matchup.

Jared Jones vs Mets: full season matchup breakdown →

Manager comparison

AWAY · NYM

Andy Green

Lineup 4.3 R Bunts 1.9 R IBBs 1.6 R

HOME · PIT

Don Kelly

Lineup 4.0 R Bunts 0.6 R IBBs 2.8 R

Bullpen availability

AWAY · NYM

Available 5
Limited 2
Rest required 0
Inactive 0

HOME · PIT

Available 8
Limited 1
Rest required 0
Inactive 0

Recent form

AWAY · NYM

5-4 W3 +5 run diff

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HOME · PIT

2-8 L3 -17 run diff

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Pitching & bullpen preview

Probable starters and each bullpen's availability load in the sections above — the Mets and Pirates staffs going in.

Once the game ends, a full pitching and bullpen breakdown appears here: starter lines, the relief sequence and each arm's role, pitch counts, and where the game turned.

Keep reading

How RunsLeft analyzes games

Standard content on this page comes from the MLB Stats API. The pitching analysis describes how the game was pitched — the starter's line, the bullpen sequence and each arm's role (opener, bulk, setup, closer), pitch counts as a fatigue signal, and the leverage context where the game turned. Reliever roles are inferred from how the manager used each arm up to that date. It describes structure and constraints; it does not grade the manager.

Read the full methodology.