Toronto Blue Jays at Philadelphia Phillies Preview — August 8, 2026

Probable starters

AWAY · TOR

Max Scherzer

HOME · PHI

Aaron Nola

Lineups

Lineups are usually announced ~90 minutes before first pitch. Check back soon.

Hitter season stats

Season-to-date lines for each hitter in the projected lineup, with a Marcel projection (Proj OPS). Season columns are 2026 to date; Proj is a forward-looking estimate, not a result.

AWAY · TOR Projected · top 9 by AB

BATTER	2026 SEASON							PROJ OPS
BATTER	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	HR	RBI	K	PROJ OPS
1 Ernie Clement 2B · R	.287	.311	.415	.726	9	38	43	.715
2 Kazuma Okamoto 3B · R	.229	.303	.439	.742	24	70	144	.718
3 Vladimir Guerrero Jr. 1B · R	.259	.338	.349	.687	6	44	62	.779
4 Andrés Giménez SS · L	.235	.281	.353	.634	7	41	69	.708
5 George Springer DH · R	.234	.316	.398	.714	12	36	68	.730
6 Nathan Lukes RF · L	.261	.317	.360	.677	5	18	43	.716
7 Jesús Sánchez RF · L	.268	.310	.434	.744	8	32	55	.726
8 Myles Straw RF · R	.225	.278	.340	.618	3	18	27	.702
9 Brandon Valenzuela C · S	.235	.311	.396	.707	8	21	56	.737

HOME · PHI Projected · top 9 by AB

BATTER	2026 SEASON							PROJ OPS
BATTER	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	HR	RBI	K	PROJ OPS
1 Trea Turner SS · R	.252	.298	.402	.700	16	45	108	.738
2 Luis Arraez 2B · L	.326	.361	.450	.811	5	47	21	.734
3 Alec Bohm 3B · R	.227	.284	.362	.646	13	62	66	.730
4 Bryce Harper 1B · L	.255	.364	.500	.864	24	68	103	.759
5 Brandon Marsh LF · L	.280	.318	.450	.768	16	51	111	.741
6 Kyle Schwarber DH · L	.243	.363	.521	.884	33	64	170	.764
7 Bryson Stott 2B · L	.260	.329	.417	.746	8	52	75	.722
8 Justin Crawford CF · L	.264	.308	.344	.652	2	29	65	.750
9 J.T. Realmuto C · R	.226	.304	.360	.664	8	38	67	.710

Pitcher vs. lineup projection

Projected expected wOBA for each probable starter against the opposing lineup, by batting order. A season-to-date matchup read — forward-looking, not a result.

TOR starter vs Phillies lineup

Max Scherzer (RHP)

Lineup avg xwOBA .322

1 TT Trea Turner RHB .310
Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Trea Turner
- Four-Seam Fastball (48% usage) projects to .338 xwOBA over 453 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Slider (23% usage) projects to .269 xwOBA over 275 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
- Changeup (14% usage) projects to .286 xwOBA over 142 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Curveball (12% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 111 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
2 LA Luis Arraez LHB .301
Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Luis Arraez
- Four-Seam Fastball (48% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 654 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Slider (23% usage) projects to .268 xwOBA over 193 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
- Changeup (14% usage) projects to .287 xwOBA over 151 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Curveball (12% usage) projects to .337 xwOBA over 101 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
3 AB Alec Bohm RHB .304
Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Alec Bohm
- Four-Seam Fastball (48% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 458 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Slider (23% usage) projects to .274 xwOBA over 247 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
- Changeup (14% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 102 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Curveball (12% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 72 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
4 BH Bryce Harper LHB .377
Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Bryce Harper
- Four-Seam Fastball (48% usage) projects to .411 xwOBA over 418 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
- Slider (23% usage) projects to .358 xwOBA over 260 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
- Changeup (14% usage) projects to .359 xwOBA over 183 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
- Curveball (12% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 162 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
5 BM Brandon Marsh LHB .314
Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Brandon Marsh
- Four-Seam Fastball (48% usage) projects to .328 xwOBA over 443 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Slider (23% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 189 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Changeup (14% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 110 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Curveball (12% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 89 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
6 KS Kyle Schwarber LHB .348
Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Kyle Schwarber
- Four-Seam Fastball (48% usage) projects to .381 xwOBA over 558 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
- Slider (23% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 298 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Changeup (14% usage) projects to .344 xwOBA over 188 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
- Curveball (12% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 134 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
7 BS Bryson Stott LHB .329
Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Bryson Stott
- Four-Seam Fastball (48% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 521 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Slider (23% usage) projects to .358 xwOBA over 174 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
- Changeup (14% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 182 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Curveball (12% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 102 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
8 JC Justin Crawford LHB .300
Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Justin Crawford
- Four-Seam Fastball (48% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 99 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Slider (23% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 37 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Changeup (14% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 37 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Curveball (12% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 26 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
9 JR J.T. Realmuto RHB .319
Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. J.T. Realmuto
- Four-Seam Fastball (48% usage) projects to .327 xwOBA over 383 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Slider (23% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 197 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Changeup (14% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 111 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Curveball (12% usage) projects to .325 xwOBA over 63 BIP — a roughly even matchup.

Max Scherzer vs Phillies: full season matchup breakdown →

PHI starter vs Blue Jays lineup

Aaron Nola (RHP)

Lineup avg xwOBA .313

1 EC Ernie Clement SH .299
Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Ernie Clement
- Knuckle Curve (32% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 25 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 362 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Sinker (19% usage) projects to .329 xwOBA over 275 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Changeup (14% usage) projects to .260 xwOBA over 163 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
- Cutter (8% usage) projects to .265 xwOBA over 131 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
2 KO Kazuma Okamoto RHB .321
Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Kazuma Okamoto
- Knuckle Curve (32% usage) projects to .337 xwOBA over 7 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .330 xwOBA over 131 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Sinker (19% usage) projects to .331 xwOBA over 88 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Changeup (14% usage) projects to .274 xwOBA over 34 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
- Cutter (8% usage) projects to .286 xwOBA over 27 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
3 VG Vladimir Guerrero Jr. RHB .339
Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
- Knuckle Curve (32% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 35 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .390 xwOBA over 413 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
- Sinker (19% usage) projects to .344 xwOBA over 426 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
- Changeup (14% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 201 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Cutter (8% usage) projects to .336 xwOBA over 169 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
4 AG Andrés Giménez LHB .292
Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Andrés Giménez
- Knuckle Curve (32% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 33 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 416 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Sinker (19% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 204 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Changeup (14% usage) projects to .267 xwOBA over 157 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
- Cutter (8% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 106 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
5 GS George Springer RHB .342
Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. George Springer
- Knuckle Curve (32% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 14 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .372 xwOBA over 405 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
- Sinker (19% usage) projects to .365 xwOBA over 340 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
- Changeup (14% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 145 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Cutter (8% usage) projects to .376 xwOBA over 140 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
6 NL Nathan Lukes LHB .310
Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Nathan Lukes
- Knuckle Curve (32% usage) projects to .336 xwOBA over 15 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 269 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Sinker (19% usage) projects to .267 xwOBA over 117 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
- Changeup (14% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 85 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Cutter (8% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 54 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
7 JS Jesús Sánchez LHB .314
Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jesús Sánchez
- Knuckle Curve (32% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 39 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .325 xwOBA over 394 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Sinker (19% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 151 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Changeup (14% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 158 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Cutter (8% usage) projects to .344 xwOBA over 98 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
8 MS Myles Straw RHB .302
Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Myles Straw
- Knuckle Curve (32% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over limited BIP — a roughly even matchup (zone profile imputed from overall vs-handedness wOBA — limited per-pitch-type data).
- Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 161 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Sinker (19% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 107 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Changeup (14% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 46 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Cutter (8% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 43 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
9 BV Brandon Valenzuela SH .300
Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Brandon Valenzuela
- Knuckle Curve (32% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 3 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 72 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Sinker (19% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 27 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Changeup (14% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 27 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Cutter (8% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 16 BIP — a roughly even matchup.

Aaron Nola vs Blue Jays: full season matchup breakdown →

Manager comparison

AWAY · TOR

John Schneider

Lineup 1.6 R Bunts 3.2 R IBBs 3.5 R

HOME · PHI

Don Mattingly

Lineup 2.1 R Bunts 0.9 R IBBs 1.1 R Interim

Bullpen availability

AWAY · TOR

Available 5
Limited 2
Rest required 0
Inactive 1

HOME · PHI

Available 7
Limited 1
Rest required 0
Inactive 0

Recent form

AWAY · TOR

6-4 L1 +1 run diff

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HOME · PHI

5-5 W1 +13 run diff

WLWWWWLLLL

Pitching & bullpen preview

Probable starters and each bullpen's availability load in the sections above — the Blue Jays and Phillies staffs going in.

Once the game ends, a full pitching and bullpen breakdown appears here: starter lines, the relief sequence and each arm's role, pitch counts, and where the game turned.

Keep reading

How RunsLeft analyzes games

Standard content on this page comes from the MLB Stats API. The pitching analysis describes how the game was pitched — the starter's line, the bullpen sequence and each arm's role (opener, bulk, setup, closer), pitch counts as a fatigue signal, and the leverage context where the game turned. Reliever roles are inferred from how the manager used each arm up to that date. It describes structure and constraints; it does not grade the manager.

Read the full methodology.