June 24, 2026 · AL East
Kansas City Royals at Tampa Bay Rays
@
Probable starters
AWAY · KC
HOME · TB
Lineups
Lineups are usually announced ~90 minutes before first pitch. Check back soon.
Pitcher vs. lineup projection
Projected expected wOBA for each probable starter against the opposing lineup, by batting order. A season-to-date matchup read — forward-looking, not a result.
KC starter vs Rays lineup
Noah Cameron (LHP)
Lineup avg xwOBA .306
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1 JC Junior Caminero RHB .333
Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Junior Caminero
- Four-Seam Fastball (28% usage) projects to .371 xwOBA over 238 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
- Cutter (21% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 81 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Changeup (20% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 116 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Curveball (18% usage) projects to .346 xwOBA over 65 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
- Slider (13% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 178 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
-
2 YD Yandy Díaz RHB .322
Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Yandy Díaz
- Four-Seam Fastball (28% usage) projects to .333 xwOBA over 396 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Cutter (21% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 139 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Changeup (20% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 159 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Curveball (18% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 88 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Slider (13% usage) projects to .384 xwOBA over 232 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
-
3 CS Chandler Simpson LHB .298
Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Chandler Simpson
- Four-Seam Fastball (28% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 263 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Cutter (21% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 50 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Changeup (20% usage) projects to .285 xwOBA over 68 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Curveball (18% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 38 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Slider (13% usage) projects to .286 xwOBA over 57 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
-
4 JA Jonathan Aranda LHB .338
Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jonathan Aranda
- Four-Seam Fastball (28% usage) projects to .325 xwOBA over 282 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Cutter (21% usage) projects to .351 xwOBA over 82 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
- Changeup (20% usage) projects to .363 xwOBA over 87 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
- Curveball (18% usage) projects to .338 xwOBA over 45 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Slider (13% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 100 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
-
5 CM Cedric Mullins LHB .286
Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Cedric Mullins
- Four-Seam Fastball (28% usage) projects to .265 xwOBA over 436 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
- Cutter (21% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 104 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Changeup (20% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 135 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Curveball (18% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 79 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Slider (13% usage) projects to .255 xwOBA over 140 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
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6 NF Nick Fortes RHB .285
Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Nick Fortes
- Four-Seam Fastball (28% usage) projects to .270 xwOBA over 209 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
- Cutter (21% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 60 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Changeup (20% usage) projects to .263 xwOBA over 79 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
- Curveball (18% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 36 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Slider (13% usage) projects to .283 xwOBA over 97 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
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7 TW Taylor Walls SH .272
Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Taylor Walls
- Four-Seam Fastball (28% usage) projects to .253 xwOBA over 301 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
- Cutter (21% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 81 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Changeup (20% usage) projects to .253 xwOBA over 81 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
- Curveball (18% usage) projects to .277 xwOBA over 41 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
- Slider (13% usage) projects to .271 xwOBA over 71 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
-
8 BW Ben Williamson RHB .303
Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Ben Williamson
- Four-Seam Fastball (28% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 135 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Cutter (21% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 39 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Changeup (20% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 41 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Curveball (18% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 22 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Slider (13% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 90 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
-
9 RP Richie Palacios LHB .314
Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Richie Palacios
- Four-Seam Fastball (28% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 193 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Cutter (21% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 47 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Changeup (20% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 52 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Curveball (18% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 37 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Slider (13% usage) projects to .330 xwOBA over 58 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
TB starter vs Royals lineup
Griffin Jax (RHP)
Lineup avg xwOBA .310
-
1 BW Bobby Witt Jr. RHB .343
Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Bobby Witt Jr.
- Sweeper (35% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 159 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Changeup (21% usage) projects to .335 xwOBA over 171 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Four-Seam Fastball (20% usage) projects to .372 xwOBA over 450 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
- Sinker (15% usage) projects to .373 xwOBA over 286 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
- Curveball (5% usage) projects to .380 xwOBA over 86 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
- Cutter (4% usage) projects to .380 xwOBA over 170 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
-
2 SP Salvador Perez RHB .310
Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Salvador Perez
- Sweeper (35% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 190 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Changeup (21% usage) projects to .265 xwOBA over 150 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
- Four-Seam Fastball (20% usage) projects to .351 xwOBA over 412 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
- Sinker (15% usage) projects to .363 xwOBA over 244 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
- Curveball (5% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 104 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Cutter (4% usage) projects to .328 xwOBA over 124 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
-
3 MG Maikel Garcia RHB .312
Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Maikel Garcia
- Sweeper (35% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 139 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Changeup (21% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 103 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Four-Seam Fastball (20% usage) projects to .341 xwOBA over 458 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
- Sinker (15% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 333 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Curveball (5% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 74 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Cutter (4% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 139 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
-
4 JC Jac Caglianone LHB .330
Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jac Caglianone
- Sweeper (35% usage) projects to .338 xwOBA over 49 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Changeup (21% usage) projects to .274 xwOBA over 57 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
- Four-Seam Fastball (20% usage) projects to .373 xwOBA over 132 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
- Sinker (15% usage) projects to .345 xwOBA over 68 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
- Curveball (5% usage) projects to .279 xwOBA over 38 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
- Cutter (4% usage) projects to .340 xwOBA over 33 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
-
5 CJ Carter Jensen LHB .311
Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Carter Jensen
- Sweeper (35% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 35 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Changeup (21% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 34 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Four-Seam Fastball (20% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 94 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Sinker (15% usage) projects to .342 xwOBA over 40 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
- Curveball (5% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 20 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Cutter (4% usage) projects to .334 xwOBA over 25 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
-
6 IC Isaac Collins SH .310
Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Isaac Collins
- Sweeper (35% usage) projects to .340 xwOBA over 31 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
- Changeup (21% usage) projects to .247 xwOBA over 82 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
- Four-Seam Fastball (20% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 323 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Sinker (15% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 96 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Curveball (5% usage) projects to .279 xwOBA over 37 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
- Cutter (4% usage) projects to .337 xwOBA over 42 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
-
7 MM Michael Massey LHB .286
Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Michael Massey
- Sweeper (35% usage) projects to .274 xwOBA over 48 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
- Changeup (21% usage) projects to .276 xwOBA over 133 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
- Four-Seam Fastball (20% usage) projects to .274 xwOBA over 291 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
- Sinker (15% usage) projects to .328 xwOBA over 99 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Curveball (5% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 36 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Cutter (4% usage) projects to .334 xwOBA over 56 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
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8 LT Lane Thomas RHB .298
Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Lane Thomas
- Sweeper (35% usage) projects to .266 xwOBA over 69 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
- Changeup (21% usage) projects to .325 xwOBA over 84 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Four-Seam Fastball (20% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 263 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Sinker (15% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 180 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Curveball (5% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 44 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Cutter (4% usage) projects to .340 xwOBA over 61 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
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9 NL Nick Loftin RHB .286
Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Nick Loftin
- Sweeper (35% usage) projects to .278 xwOBA over 36 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
- Changeup (21% usage) projects to .272 xwOBA over 41 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
- Four-Seam Fastball (20% usage) projects to .332 xwOBA over 171 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Sinker (15% usage) projects to .258 xwOBA over 92 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
- Curveball (5% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 19 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Cutter (4% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 44 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Manager comparison
AWAY · KC
Lineup 3.1 R
Bunts 1.6 R
IBBs 1.5 R
HOME · TB
Lineup 1.3 R
Bunts 2.5 R
IBBs 2.8 R
Bullpen availability
AWAY · KC
- Available 7
- Limited 2
- Rest required 0
- Inactive 0
HOME · TB
- Available 7
- Limited 1
- Rest required 0
- Inactive 0
Recent form
AWAY · KC
5-5
W1
+7 run diff
WLWWWLLWLL
HOME · TB
3-7
L1
-5 run diff
LWLWLLLWLL
Season series: 1-0 with KC listed first across 1 prior meeting.
Pitching & bullpen preview
Probable starters and each bullpen's availability load in the sections above — the Royals and Rays staffs going in.
Once the game ends, a full pitching and bullpen breakdown appears here: starter lines, the relief sequence and each arm's role, pitch counts, and where the game turned.
Keep reading
How RunsLeft analyzes games
Standard content on this page comes from the MLB Stats API. The pitching analysis describes how the game was pitched — the starter's line, the bullpen sequence and each arm's role (opener, bulk, setup, closer), pitch counts as a fatigue signal, and the leverage context where the game turned. Reliever roles are inferred from how the manager used each arm up to that date. It describes structure and constraints; it does not grade the manager.