PREVIEW Starts 6:40 PM ET · PNC Park
June 23, 2026 · NL Cent

Seattle Mariners at Pittsburgh Pirates

June 23, 20266:40 PM ETPNC Park
AWAY
Seattle Mariners
40-39
—
@
HOME
Pittsburgh Pirates
39-39
—

Probable starters

AWAY · SEA
George Kirby
George Kirby
HOME · PIT
Mitch Keller
Mitch Keller

Lineups

Lineups are usually announced ~90 minutes before first pitch. Check back soon.

Pitcher vs. lineup projection

Projected expected wOBA for each probable starter against the opposing lineup, by batting order. A season-to-date matchup read — forward-looking, not a result.

SEA starter vs Pirates lineup

George Kirby (RHP)

Lineup avg xwOBA .310
  1. 1 BL Brandon Lowe SH .330
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Brandon Lowe
    • Four-Seam Fastball (31% usage) projects to .354 xwOBA over 333 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (27% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 81 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (24% usage) projects to .363 xwOBA over 164 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Knuckle Curve (10% usage) projects to .285 xwOBA over 27 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (4% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 199 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (3% usage) projects to .269 xwOBA over 76 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  2. 2 BR Bryan Reynolds SH .327
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Bryan Reynolds
    • Four-Seam Fastball (31% usage) projects to .341 xwOBA over 488 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (27% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 100 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (24% usage) projects to .362 xwOBA over 218 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Knuckle Curve (10% usage) projects to .279 xwOBA over 38 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (4% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 246 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (3% usage) projects to .259 xwOBA over 54 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  3. 3 NG Nick Gonzales RHB .307
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Nick Gonzales
    • Four-Seam Fastball (31% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 266 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (27% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 107 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (24% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 241 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (10% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 17 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (4% usage) projects to .342 xwOBA over 82 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Splitter (3% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 18 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 SH Spencer Horwitz LHB .305
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Spencer Horwitz
    • Four-Seam Fastball (31% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 368 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (27% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 64 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (24% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 158 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (10% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 18 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (4% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 122 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (3% usage) projects to .326 xwOBA over 47 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 RO Ryan O'Hearn LHB .325
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Ryan O'Hearn
    • Four-Seam Fastball (31% usage) projects to .342 xwOBA over 412 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (27% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 62 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (24% usage) projects to .363 xwOBA over 205 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Knuckle Curve (10% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 29 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (4% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 151 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (3% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 51 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 MO Marcell Ozuna RHB .326
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Marcell Ozuna
    • Four-Seam Fastball (31% usage) projects to .368 xwOBA over 409 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (27% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 121 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (24% usage) projects to .326 xwOBA over 330 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (10% usage) projects to .275 xwOBA over 34 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (4% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 144 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (3% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 36 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 JM Jake Mangum SH .300
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jake Mangum
    • Four-Seam Fastball (31% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 149 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (27% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 38 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (24% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 87 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (10% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 13 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (4% usage) projects to .285 xwOBA over 91 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (3% usage) projects to .280 xwOBA over 28 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 JT Jared Triolo RHB .289
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jared Triolo
    • Four-Seam Fastball (31% usage) projects to .286 xwOBA over 324 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (27% usage) projects to .249 xwOBA over 77 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (24% usage) projects to .334 xwOBA over 204 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (10% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 11 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (4% usage) projects to .287 xwOBA over 81 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (3% usage) projects to .275 xwOBA over 16 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  9. 9 HD Henry Davis RHB .285
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Henry Davis
    • Four-Seam Fastball (31% usage) projects to .259 xwOBA over 181 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sweeper (27% usage) projects to .275 xwOBA over 44 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (24% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 107 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (10% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 4 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (4% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 38 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (3% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 11 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
George Kirby vs Pirates: full season matchup breakdown →
PIT starter vs Mariners lineup

Mitch Keller (RHP)

Lineup avg xwOBA .326
  1. 1 JR Julio Rodríguez RHB .336
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Julio Rodríguez
    • Four-Seam Fastball (33% usage) projects to .355 xwOBA over 425 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .349 xwOBA over 365 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (18% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 146 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (12% usage) projects to .349 xwOBA over 276 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (8% usage) projects to .330 xwOBA over 78 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (7% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 171 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (4% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 114 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 CY Cole Young LHB .310
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Cole Young
    • Four-Seam Fastball (33% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 213 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .339 xwOBA over 97 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (18% usage) projects to .283 xwOBA over 30 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (12% usage) projects to .329 xwOBA over 70 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (8% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 23 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (7% usage) projects to .285 xwOBA over 67 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (4% usage) projects to .329 xwOBA over 44 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 JN Josh Naylor LHB .325
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Josh Naylor
    • Four-Seam Fastball (33% usage) projects to .345 xwOBA over 454 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 260 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (18% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 99 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (12% usage) projects to .280 xwOBA over 211 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (8% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 74 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (7% usage) projects to .334 xwOBA over 218 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (4% usage) projects to .363 xwOBA over 116 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  4. 4 JC J.P. Crawford LHB .323
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. J.P. Crawford
    • Four-Seam Fastball (33% usage) projects to .344 xwOBA over 474 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 247 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (18% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 83 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (12% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 186 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (8% usage) projects to .329 xwOBA over 47 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (7% usage) projects to .333 xwOBA over 114 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (4% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 114 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 LR Luke Raley LHB .332
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Luke Raley
    • Four-Seam Fastball (33% usage) projects to .367 xwOBA over 245 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .346 xwOBA over 109 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (18% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 58 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (12% usage) projects to .276 xwOBA over 139 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (8% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 43 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (7% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 130 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (4% usage) projects to .337 xwOBA over 85 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 CR Cal Raleigh SH .345
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Cal Raleigh
    • Four-Seam Fastball (33% usage) projects to .345 xwOBA over 536 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .437 xwOBA over 146 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (18% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 55 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (12% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 166 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (8% usage) projects to .286 xwOBA over 105 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (7% usage) projects to .339 xwOBA over 276 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (4% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 116 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 DC Dominic Canzone LHB .358
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Dominic Canzone
    • Four-Seam Fastball (33% usage) projects to .397 xwOBA over 185 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .346 xwOBA over 89 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (18% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 35 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (12% usage) projects to .343 xwOBA over 87 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (8% usage) projects to .359 xwOBA over 49 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (7% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 107 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (4% usage) projects to .385 xwOBA over 44 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  8. 8 RR Rob Refsnyder RHB .313
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Rob Refsnyder
    • Four-Seam Fastball (33% usage) projects to .325 xwOBA over 222 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 114 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (18% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 45 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (12% usage) projects to .264 xwOBA over 73 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (8% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 32 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (7% usage) projects to .340 xwOBA over 61 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (4% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 46 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 MG Mitch Garver RHB .291
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Mitch Garver
    • Four-Seam Fastball (33% usage) projects to .286 xwOBA over 267 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .332 xwOBA over 150 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (18% usage) projects to .282 xwOBA over 69 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (12% usage) projects to .256 xwOBA over 152 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (8% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 29 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (7% usage) projects to .283 xwOBA over 90 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (4% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 52 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Mitch Keller vs Mariners: full season matchup breakdown →

Manager comparison

AWAY · SEA
Dan Wilson
Dan Wilson
Lineup 2.3 R Bunts 0.9 R IBBs 1.3 R
HOME · PIT
Don Kelly
Don Kelly
Lineup 3.0 R Bunts 0.6 R IBBs 1.8 R

Bullpen availability

AWAY · SEA
  • Available 7
  • Limited 0
  • Rest required 0
  • Inactive 0
HOME · PIT
  • Available 7
  • Limited 0
  • Rest required 0
  • Inactive 0

Recent form

AWAY · SEA
4-6 W1 -11 run diff
WLLWLWLLWL
HOME · PIT
4-6 W1 -8 run diff
WLLWWLLWLL

Pitching & bullpen preview

Probable starters and each bullpen's availability load in the sections above — the Mariners and Pirates staffs going in.

Once the game ends, a full pitching and bullpen breakdown appears here: starter lines, the relief sequence and each arm's role, pitch counts, and where the game turned.

Keep reading

How RunsLeft analyzes games

Standard content on this page comes from the MLB Stats API. The pitching analysis describes how the game was pitched — the starter's line, the bullpen sequence and each arm's role (opener, bulk, setup, closer), pitch counts as a fatigue signal, and the leverage context where the game turned. Reliever roles are inferred from how the manager used each arm up to that date. It describes structure and constraints; it does not grade the manager.

Read the full methodology.

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