June 23, 2026 · NL West
Atlanta Braves at San Diego Padres
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Probable starters
AWAY · ATL
HOME
TBD
Lineups
Lineups are usually announced ~90 minutes before first pitch. Check back soon.
Pitcher vs. lineup projection
Projected expected wOBA for each probable starter against the opposing lineup, by batting order. A season-to-date matchup read — forward-looking, not a result.
ATL starter vs Padres lineup
JR Ritchie (RHP)
Lineup avg xwOBA .317
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1 FT Fernando Tatis Jr. RHB .331
Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Fernando Tatis Jr.
- Curveball (24% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 56 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Four-Seam Fastball (20% usage) projects to .387 xwOBA over 380 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
- Changeup (19% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 139 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Sinker (17% usage) projects to .351 xwOBA over 349 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
- Slider (10% usage) projects to .340 xwOBA over 223 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
- Cutter (10% usage) projects to .339 xwOBA over 91 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
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2 JM Jackson Merrill LHB .333
Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jackson Merrill
- Curveball (24% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 98 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Four-Seam Fastball (20% usage) projects to .338 xwOBA over 421 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Changeup (19% usage) projects to .331 xwOBA over 157 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Sinker (17% usage) projects to .361 xwOBA over 205 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
- Slider (10% usage) projects to .344 xwOBA over 167 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
- Cutter (10% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 98 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
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3 MM Manny Machado RHB .326
Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Manny Machado
- Curveball (24% usage) projects to .285 xwOBA over 74 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Four-Seam Fastball (20% usage) projects to .360 xwOBA over 441 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
- Changeup (19% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 157 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Sinker (17% usage) projects to .356 xwOBA over 338 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
- Slider (10% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 250 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Cutter (10% usage) projects to .365 xwOBA over 100 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
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4 XB Xander Bogaerts RHB .316
Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Xander Bogaerts
- Curveball (24% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 64 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Four-Seam Fastball (20% usage) projects to .330 xwOBA over 374 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Changeup (19% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 118 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Sinker (17% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 296 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Slider (10% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 156 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Cutter (10% usage) projects to .367 xwOBA over 82 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
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5 GS Gavin Sheets LHB .330
Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Gavin Sheets
- Curveball (24% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 102 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Four-Seam Fastball (20% usage) projects to .332 xwOBA over 413 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Changeup (19% usage) projects to .335 xwOBA over 155 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Sinker (17% usage) projects to .364 xwOBA over 193 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
- Slider (10% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 165 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Cutter (10% usage) projects to .342 xwOBA over 94 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
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6 MA Miguel Andujar RHB .307
Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Miguel Andujar
- Curveball (24% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 45 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Four-Seam Fastball (20% usage) projects to .332 xwOBA over 203 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Changeup (19% usage) projects to .271 xwOBA over 78 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
- Sinker (17% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 198 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Slider (10% usage) projects to .283 xwOBA over 135 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Cutter (10% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 62 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
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7 TF Ty France RHB .296
Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Ty France
- Curveball (24% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 68 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Four-Seam Fastball (20% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 323 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Changeup (19% usage) projects to .269 xwOBA over 115 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
- Sinker (17% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 254 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Slider (10% usage) projects to .278 xwOBA over 182 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
- Cutter (10% usage) projects to .273 xwOBA over 89 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
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8 RD Rodolfo Durán RHB .318
Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Rodolfo Durán
- Curveball (24% usage) projects to .327 xwOBA over limited BIP — a roughly even matchup (zone profile imputed from overall vs-handedness wOBA — limited per-pitch-type data).
- Four-Seam Fastball (20% usage) projects to .348 xwOBA over 19 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
- Changeup (19% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 4 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Sinker (17% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 10 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Slider (10% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 8 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Cutter (10% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 4 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
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9 SS Sung-Mun Song LHB .299
Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Sung-Mun Song
- Curveball (24% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over limited BIP — a roughly even matchup (zone profile imputed from overall vs-handedness wOBA — limited per-pitch-type data).
- Four-Seam Fastball (20% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 17 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Changeup (19% usage) projects to .325 xwOBA over 6 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Sinker (17% usage) projects to .286 xwOBA over 8 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Slider (10% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 7 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Cutter (10% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 12 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Manager comparison
AWAY · ATL
Lineup 2.3 R
Bunts 0.0 R
IBBs 0.5 R
HOME · SD
Lineup 1.5 R
Bunts 0.6 R
IBBs 0.6 R
Bullpen availability
AWAY · ATL
- Available 7
- Limited 1
- Rest required 0
- Inactive 0
HOME · SD
- Available 8
- Limited 0
- Rest required 0
- Inactive 0
Recent form
AWAY · ATL
3-6
L2
-21 run diff
LLWW?LLLLW
HOME · SD
5-5
W1
+6 run diff
WLWLWLLWWL
Season series: 0-1 with ATL listed first across 1 prior meeting.
Pitching & bullpen preview
Probable starters and each bullpen's availability load in the sections above — the Braves and Padres staffs going in.
Once the game ends, a full pitching and bullpen breakdown appears here: starter lines, the relief sequence and each arm's role, pitch counts, and where the game turned.
Keep reading
How RunsLeft analyzes games
Standard content on this page comes from the MLB Stats API. The pitching analysis describes how the game was pitched — the starter's line, the bullpen sequence and each arm's role (opener, bulk, setup, closer), pitch counts as a fatigue signal, and the leverage context where the game turned. Reliever roles are inferred from how the manager used each arm up to that date. It describes structure and constraints; it does not grade the manager.