Chicago Cubs vs Texas Rangers
Starting pitchers
Lineups
- 1 Nico Hoerner 2B
- 2 Michael Conforto DH
- 3 Alex Bregman 3B
- 4 Ian Happ LF
- 5 Seiya Suzuki RF
- 6 Michael Busch 1B
- 7 Carson Kelly C
- 8 Pete Crow-Armstrong CF
- 9 Dansby Swanson SS
- 1 Brandon Nimmo RF
- 2 Ezequiel Duran 2B
- 3 Corey Seager SS
- 4 Josh Jung 3B
- 5 Evan Carter CF
- 6 Joc Pederson DH
- 7 Jake Burger 1B
- 8 Alejandro Osuna LF
- 9 Danny Jansen C
Box score
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHC | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 7 |
| TEX | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
Manager comparison
Both managers grade C / B- entering this matchup.
Recent form
Season series: 1-0 with CHC listed first across 1 prior meeting.
Tactical analysis
RunsLeft separates manager decisions from player execution from game variance. Each card below is the same three-number framework that drives the share cards on the SPA replay page.
- Manager lineup cost +0.18 R/G Optimal arrangement projects 4.90 vs actual lineup 4.72
- Player execution +2.28 R/G Players exceeded the lineup's 4.72 projection by 2.28 (scored 7)
- Game variance +2.10 R/G Total game outcome vs optimal expectation
Hoerner 0-for-5 batting 1st
- Manager lineup cost +0.00 R/G Optimal arrangement projects 2.39 vs actual lineup 2.39
- Player execution −1.39 R/G Players fell 1.39 short of the lineup's 2.39 projection (scored 1)
- Game variance −1.39 R/G Total game outcome vs optimal expectation
Seager 0-for-4 batting 3rd
Optimal lineups projected 4.9 – 2.4 — actual was 7 – 1.
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Ian Happ reaches base in 29 consecutive gamesIan Happ (CHC) has reached base safely in 29 straight games — past the 25-game watermark.
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Craig Counsell (CHC) has run 27 distinct starting lineups across 30 games this season — that's 90% turnover game-to-game. Most managers stay below 14 for the same span.
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Skip Schumaker (TEX) has run 30 distinct starting lineups across 30 games this season — that's 100% turnover game-to-game. Most managers stay below 14 for the same span.
Keep reading
How RunsLeft analyzes games
Standard content on this page comes from the MLB Stats API. Tactical analysis comes from a per-game Monte Carlo: 10,000 simulated games against the opposing starter's ERA, both for the actual lineup the manager wrote and for the optimal arrangement of those nine players. The three numbers — manager cost, player execution, game variance — separate which part of the result was the lineup, the players, or the dice.