Houston Astros vs Cincinnati Reds
Starting pitchers
Lineups
- 1 Jose Altuve 2B
- 2 Yordan Alvarez DH
- 3 Isaac Paredes 3B
- 4 Christian Walker 1B
- 5 Cam Smith RF
- 6 Brice Matthews CF
- 7 Zach Dezenzo LF
- 8 Christian Vázquez C
- 9 Nick Allen SS
- 1 TJ Friedl CF
- 2 JJ Bleday LF
- 3 Elly De La Cruz SS
- 4 Sal Stewart 1B
- 5 Nathaniel Lowe DH
- 6 Spencer Steer RF
- 7 Tyler Stephenson C
- 8 Matt McLain 2B
- 9 Ke'Bryan Hayes 3B
Box score
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HOU | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 10 |
| CIN | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Manager comparison
Both managers grade D+ / B- entering this matchup.
Recent form
Season series: 1-0 with HOU listed first across 1 prior meeting.
Tactical analysis
RunsLeft separates manager decisions from player execution from game variance. Each card below is the same three-number framework that drives the share cards on the SPA replay page.
- Manager lineup cost +0.06 R/G Optimal arrangement projects 4.73 vs actual lineup 4.67
- Player execution +5.33 R/G Players exceeded the lineup's 4.67 projection by 5.33 (scored 10)
- Game variance +5.27 R/G Total game outcome vs optimal expectation
Cole HR from the 7-hole
- Manager lineup cost −0.09 R/G Optimal arrangement projects 4.77 vs actual lineup 4.86
- Player execution −4.86 R/G Players fell 4.86 short of the lineup's 4.86 projection (scored 0)
- Game variance −4.77 R/G Total game outcome vs optimal expectation
Friedl 0-for-4 batting 1st
Optimal lineups projected 4.7 – 4.8 — actual was 10 – 0.
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Terry Francona (CIN) has run 30 distinct starting lineups across 30 games this season — that's 100% turnover game-to-game. Most managers stay below 14 for the same span.
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Joe Espada (HOU) has run 29 distinct starting lineups across 30 games this season — that's 97% turnover game-to-game. Most managers stay below 14 for the same span.
Keep reading
How RunsLeft analyzes games
Standard content on this page comes from the MLB Stats API. Tactical analysis comes from a per-game Monte Carlo: 10,000 simulated games against the opposing starter's ERA, both for the actual lineup the manager wrote and for the optimal arrangement of those nine players. The three numbers — manager cost, player execution, game variance — separate which part of the result was the lineup, the players, or the dice.