ARCHIVE May 7, 2026
May 7, 2026 · NL East

Minnesota Twins vs Washington Nationals

May 7, 2026Nationals ParkCloudy 59°F · 6 mph, In From CF
AWAY
Minnesota Twins
16-22
5
vs
HOME
Washington Nationals
18-20
7

Starting pitchers

AWAY · MIN
Simeon Woods Richardson
Simeon Woods Richardson
IP 4.1
HOME · WSH
Jake Irvin
Jake Irvin
IP 5

Lineups

AWAY · MIN
  1. 1 Byron Buxton CF
  2. 2 Trevor Larnach DH
  3. 3 Austin Martin LF
  4. 4 Ryan Jeffers C
  5. 5 Matt Wallner RF
  6. 6 Luke Keaschall 2B
  7. 7 Kody Clemens 1B
  8. 8 Brooks Lee SS
  9. 9 Tristan Gray 3B
HOME · WSH
  1. 1 James Wood RF
  2. 2 Daylen Lile LF
  3. 3 Curtis Mead 1B
  4. 4 CJ Abrams SS
  5. 5 Brady House 3B
  6. 6 José Tena DH
  7. 7 Jacob Young CF
  8. 8 Keibert Ruiz C
  9. 9 Nasim Nuñez 2B

Box score

  123456789 R
MIN 020011100 5
WSH 002030200 7

Manager comparison

Both managers grade B / C entering this matchup.

AWAY · MIN
Derek Shelton
B Lineup 0.8 R Bunts 0.5 R IBBs 0.4 R
HOME · WSH
Blake Butera
C Lineup 1.6 R Bunts 1.5 R IBBs 1.4 R

Recent form

AWAY · MIN
3-7 L3 -21 run diff
LLLWWLLWLL
HOME · WSH
6-4 W3 +6 run diff
WWWLWLLWWL

Season series: 1-2 with MIN listed first across 3 prior meetings.

Tactical analysis

RunsLeft separates manager decisions from player execution from game variance. Each card below is the same three-number framework that drives the share cards on the SPA replay page.

AWAY · Minnesota Twins
  • Manager lineup cost −0.02 R/G Optimal arrangement projects 4.73 vs actual lineup 4.75
  • Player execution +0.25 R/G Players exceeded the lineup's 4.75 projection by 0.25 (scored 5)
  • Game variance +0.27 R/G Total game outcome vs optimal expectation

Lee 2-for-3 from the 8-hole

HOME · Washington Nationals
  • Manager lineup cost +0.05 R/G Optimal arrangement projects 4.88 vs actual lineup 4.83
  • Player execution +2.17 R/G Players exceeded the lineup's 4.83 projection by 2.17 (scored 7)
  • Game variance +2.12 R/G Total game outcome vs optimal expectation

Ruiz HR from the 8-hole

COUNTERFACTUAL

Optimal lineups projected 4.7 – 4.9 — actual was 5 – 7.

Keep reading

How RunsLeft analyzes games

Standard content on this page comes from the MLB Stats API. Tactical analysis comes from a per-game Monte Carlo: 10,000 simulated games against the opposing starter's ERA, both for the actual lineup the manager wrote and for the optimal arrangement of those nine players. The three numbers — manager cost, player execution, game variance — separate which part of the result was the lineup, the players, or the dice.

Read the full methodology.